Democratic
Chris Jones
Nuclear engineer and nominee for governor in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $280.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arkansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas's 2nd District
Hill is clearly favored to win: Hill wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Jones (D)
19%
chance of winning
Hill (R)
81%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hill is favored to win: Hill wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Jones (D)
22%
chance of winning
Hill (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
French Hill
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $4.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 749,030
- People per km²
- 53
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 20%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
306,286 votes · R+17.9✓ J. French Hill (R)58.9%
Marcus A. Jones (D)41.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
311,219 two-party votes · R+16.0 · R+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Kamala Harris (D)42.0%
2022
246,446 votes · R+26.0✓ J French Hill (R)60.0%
Quintessa Hathaway (D)35.3%
Michael White (L)4.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
332,503 votes · R+10.7✓ J French Hill (R)55.4%
Joyce Elliott (D)44.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
355,417 two-party votes · R+11.5 · R+16.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Joe Biden (D)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
253,453 votes · R+6.4✓ French Hill (R)52.1%
Clarke Tucker (D)45.8%
Joe Ryne Swafford (L)2.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
302,464 votes · R+22.6✓ J French Hill (R)58.3%
Dianne Curry (D)36.8%
Chris Hayes (L)4.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,706 two-party votes · R+16.0 · R+18.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.0%