DemocraticIncumbent
Stephen Lynch
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $618.4K
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $485K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Massachusetts › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts's 8th District
Lynch is very likely to win: Lynch wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lynch (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Burke (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lynch is very likely to win: Lynch wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lynch (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Burke (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Burke
Videographer and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5K
- From individuals
- $25
- Spent
- $12.6K
- Cash on hand
- -$17K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 14.41 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 791,078
- People per km²
- 663
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 10%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
376,070 votes · D+41.2✓ Stephen F. Lynch (D)70.6%
Robert G. Burke (R)29.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
382,115 two-party votes · D+27.0 · D+28.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.5%
Donald Trump (R)36.5%
2022
272,113 votes · D+39.6✓ Stephen F Lynch (D)69.8%
Robert G Burke (R)30.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
383,000 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Stephen F Lynch (D)81.2%
Jonathan D Lott (I)18.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
417,132 two-party votes · D+36.3 · D+31.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.2%
Donald Trump (R)31.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
259,159 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Stephen F Lynch (D)100.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
373,763 votes · D+45.0✓ Stephen F Lynch (D)72.5%
William Burke (R)27.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
358,543 two-party votes · D+29.4 · D+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.7%
Donald Trump (R)35.3%