Democratic
Kimberly Hardy
Assistant professor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $376.1K
- From individuals
- $365.3K
- Spent
- $351K
- Cash on hand
- $25.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 7th District
Rouzer is clearly favored to win: Rouzer wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Hardy (D)
9%
chance of winning
Rouzer (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
Rouzer is clearly favored to win: Rouzer wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Hardy (D)
16%
chance of winning
Rouzer (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Rouzer
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $936.3K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.78 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hardy | Rouzer | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for Hardy's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 20 | 517 LV | 39 | 45 | R+6 | R+9.7 |
| Public Policy Polling for Hardy's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 20 | 517 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 | R+9.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 20, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,081
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 18%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
434,221 votes · R+17.2✓ David Rouzer (R)58.6%
Marlando D. Pridgen (D)41.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
437,973 two-party votes · R+14.0 · R+12.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Kamala Harris (D)43.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
283,929 votes · R+15.4✓ David Rouzer (R)57.7%
Charles Graham (D)42.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
904,494 votes · R+20.7✓ David Rouzer (R)60.2%
Christopher M Ward (D)39.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
450,140 two-party votes · R+11.5 · R+16.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Joe Biden (D)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
282,266 votes · R+13.0✓ David Rouzer (R)55.5%
Kyle Horton (D)42.8%
David W Fallin (CST)1.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
347,706 votes · R+21.8✓ David Rouzer (R)60.9%
J Wesley Casteen (D)39.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
408,201 two-party votes · R+15.8 · R+18.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.1%