Democratic
Chaz Molder
Mayor of Columbia (2018–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $2.4M
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 5th District
Hatcher is clearly favored to win: Hatcher wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Molder (D)
5%
chance of winning
Hatcher (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 2in our database
Hatcher is very likely to win: Hatcher wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Molder (D)
4%
chance of winning
Hatcher (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Charlie Hatcher
Former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–2025)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $967K
- Cash on hand
- $752.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Molder | Hatcher | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Molder's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 552 LV | 41 | 46 | R+5 | R+11.2 |
| Impact Research for Molder's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 24 | 500 LV | 40 | 48 | R+8 | R+13.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 777,184
- People per km²
- 43
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
360,714 votes · R+18.0✓ Andrew Ogles (R)56.9%
Maryam Abolfazli (D)39.5%
Jim Larkin (I)2.1%
Bob Titley (I)0.8%
Yomi "fapas" Faparusi (I)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
307,442 two-party votes · R+22.4 · R+20.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
221,275 votes · R+13.8✓ Andy Ogles (R)55.8%
Heidi Campbell (D)42.3%
Derrick Brantley (I)0.9%
Daniel Cooper (I)0.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
252,169 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jim Cooper (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
323,250 two-party votes · R+12.7 · R+17.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Joe Biden (D)43.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
262,248 votes · D+35.7✓ Jim Cooper (D)67.8%
Jody M Ball (R)32.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
273,544 votes · D+25.1✓ Jim Cooper (D)62.6%
Stacy Ries Snyder (R)37.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
263,574 two-party votes · R+10.9 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.6%