Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (+0.2 D since Oct 21)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 71%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.1 D since Oct 21)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 22
Thursday, October 22, 2026
- Calls changed
- 46
- Party changes
- 12
- New polls
- 126
- New FEC totals
- 42
- Compared with
- Oct 21
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 21. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 98%no change
Expected seats 238.5 D · 196.5 R (−0.6 D since Oct 21)
D 98%, 98% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 239.2 D · 195.8 R (−0.3 D since Oct 21)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▲ D +4
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (+0.2 D since Oct 21)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 77%▲ D +3
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (+0.2 D since Oct 21)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0R +0.3
Forecast environment
D+9.3R +0.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 21 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaToss-up → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Likely R → Lean R
- U.S. Senate in NebraskaLean R → Toss-up
Governor races
- Nevada GovernorLean R → Toss-up
- Alaska GovernorLean D → Likely D
- South Carolina GovernorLikely R → Solid R
- Alabama GovernorLikely R → Solid R
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 93% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 97% |
| Nevada | D trifecta 26% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 42% · R trifecta <1% |
| South Carolina · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 90% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 96% |
| Wisconsin | D trifecta 54% · R trifecta 2% | D trifecta 60% · R trifecta 2% |
Every call change
46 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 21 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 3 changes
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaToss-up → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Likely R → Lean R
- U.S. Senate in NebraskaLean R → Toss-up
Governors 4 changes
- Nevada GovernorLean R → Toss-up
- Alaska GovernorLean D → Likely D
- South Carolina GovernorLikely R → Solid R
- Alabama GovernorLikely R → Solid R
Statewide offices 2 changes
- Nevada AuditorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- South Carolina Attorney GeneralLikely R → Solid R
House 21 changes
- NC-11Now D favoredToss-up → Lean D
- TX-35Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- KY-6Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- WI-1Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- ME-2Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- MI-7Lean D → Likely D
- FL-25Likely D → Lean D
- PA-8Toss-up → Lean D
- IA-2Toss-up → Lean D
- AZ-2Likely R → Lean R
- IA-1Lean D → Toss-up
- AR-2Lean R → Likely R
- PA-1Lean D → Toss-up
- OH-7Lean D → Toss-up
- MT-1Lean R → Toss-up
- TX-23Toss-up → Lean R
- CO-4Likely R → Lean R
- FL-16Lean R → Likely R
- MN-1Toss-up → Lean R
- FL-21Likely R → Solid R
- FL-8Likely R → Solid R
Show all 21
State legislatures 16 changes in 12 chambers
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-87Lean D → Toss-up
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-45Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Illinois House of Representatives · 1 change
- RD-48Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Kentucky State Senate · 1 change
- SD-36Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-143Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
North Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-25Lean D → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-143Toss-up → Lean R
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 2 changes
Rhode Island State Senate · 1 change
- SD-33Lean D → Likely D
South Carolina House of Representatives · 3 changes
Utah House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-39Lean D → Toss-up
New polls
126 polls new since Oct 21, in 64 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 114 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Ohio (special) | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 2,005 RV | D 53 · R 46 | D+7 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Ohio (special) | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,592 LV | D 52 · R 47 | D+5 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Ohio (special) | New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 959 LV | D 49 · R 43 | D+6 | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Dakota | Emerson College for KELO-TV | Oct 19–Oct 20 | 803 LV | D 42 · R 50 | R+8 | keloland.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Dakota | Quantus Insights | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 657 LV | D 37.3 · R 59.4 | R+22 | semafor.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Dakota | Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Rounds's campaignR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 16 | 500 LV | D 37 · R 54 | R+17 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | ActiVote | Oct 17–Oct 21 | 400 LV | D 51 · R 49 | D+2 | activote.net ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,398 LV | D 49 · R 49 | Even | foxnews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 2,011 RV | D 52 · R 46 | D+6 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Emerson College for Nexstar | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | D 49.37 · R 47.83 | D+2 | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 934 LV | D 49 · R 44 | D+5 | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research | Sep 19–Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | D 49 · R 44 | D+5 | texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗ |
| Arizona Governor | BSP Research for Arizona State University Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research | Sep 18–Oct 4 | 1,300 RV | D 47 · R 34 | D+13 | dropbox.com ↗ |
| California Governor | Emerson College | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | D 63.63 · R 36.37 | D+27 | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| California Governor | TrueDot for Politico, UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research | Oct 9–Oct 14 | 909 LV | D 55 · R 35 | D+20 | politico.com ↗ |
| California Governor | IVC Media for Independent Voter Project | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 2,906 LV | D 48 · R 38 | D+10 | ivn.us ↗ |
| Connecticut Governor | YouGov for Wesleyan SurveyLab CT | Sep 22–Oct 7 | — LV | D 57.2 · R 34.1 | D+23 | surveylab.wescreates.wesleyan.edu ↗ |
| Connecticut Governor | YouGov for Wesleyan SurveyLab CT | Sep 22–Oct 7 | 1,000 RV | D 52.6 · R 31.7 | D+21 | surveylab.wescreates.wesleyan.edu ↗ |
| Florida Governor | co/efficient | Oct 18–Oct 20 | 1,014 LV | D 40 · R 49 | R+9 | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Florida Governor | University of North Florida | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 1,471 LV | D 47 · R 49 | R+2 | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Iowa Governor | New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 602 LV | D 54 · R 43 | D+11 | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| Iowa Governor | National Public Affairs for God, Family, & Country PACR sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 678 LV | D 50 · R 45 | D+5 | backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗ |
| Maryland Governor | UMBC Institute of Politics | Sep 22–Sep 27 | 776 LV | D 51 · R 24 | D+27 | marylandmatters.org ↗ |
| Minnesota Governor | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for KARE 11, Minnesota Star Tribune | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 800 LV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | startribune.com ↗ |
| New York Governor | Quinnipiac University | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,167 LV | D 55 · R 41 | D+14 | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| New York Governor | OnMessage Inc. for Saritha Komatireddy's campaignR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 1,000 LV | D 50.3 · R 45.9 | D+4 | nypost.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | Verasight for VoteHub | Oct 1–Oct 20 | 531 LV | D 46.2 · R 45.4 | D+1 | votehub.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | Verasight for VoteHub | Oct 1–Oct 20 | 535 RV | D 44.4 · R 45.9 | R+2 | votehub.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 2,005 RV | D 51 · R 47 | D+4 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,592 LV | D 50 · R 48 | D+2 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 959 LV | D 49 · R 44 | D+5 | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | ActiVote | Oct 1–Oct 21 | 400 LV | D 61.5 · R 38.5 | D+23 | activote.net ↗ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Franklin & Marshall College | Oct 7–Oct 18 | 808 RV | D 54 · R 33 | D+21 | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Franklin & Marshall College | Oct 7–Oct 18 | — LV | D 59 · R 36 | D+23 | fandmpoll.org ↗ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Bravo Group for PennLive | Oct 5–Oct 11 | 628 RV | D 57.68 · R 27.55 | D+30 | pennlive.com ↗ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Bravo Group for PennLive | Sep 16–Sep 22 | 624 RV | D 55.14 · R 27.72 | D+27 | pennlive.com ↗ |
| South Carolina Governor | Trafalgar GroupR sponsor | Oct 16–Oct 18 | 1,095 LV | D 36.5 · R 52.5 | R+16 | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| South Carolina Governor | National Public Affairs for Alan Wilson's campaignR sponsor | Oct 13–Oct 16 | 604 LV | D 41 · R 51 | R+10 | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| South Dakota Governor | Emerson College for KELO-TV | Oct 19–Oct 20 | 803 LV | D 38 · R 56 | R+18 | keloland.com ↗ |
| South Dakota Governor | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 500 RV | D 36 · R 56 | R+20 | sdnewswatch.org ↗ |
| Texas Governor | ActiVote | Oct 17–Oct 21 | 400 LV | D 47.5 · R 52.5 | R+5 | activote.net ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 2,011 RV | D 49 · R 50 | R+1 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,398 LV | D 47 · R 52 | R+5 | foxnews.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Emerson College for Nexstar | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 1,000 LV | D 46.59 · R 51.07 | R+5 | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 934 LV | D 46 · R 48 | R+2 | cookpolitical.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research | Sep 19–Sep 22 | 1,007 LV | D 46 · R 50 | R+4 | texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com ↗ |
| Arizona Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 50 · R 43 | D+7 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Florida Attorney General | SEA Polling & Strategic Design for Rodríguez's campaignD sponsor | Oct 11–Oct 14 | 805 LV | D 35 · R 34 | D+1 | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Georgia Attorney General | The Atlanta Journal-Constitution | Oct 7–Oct 15 | 1,000 LV | D 44 · R 44 | Even | ajc.com ↗ |
| Georgia Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 46 · R 43 | D+3 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Kansas Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 49 · R 45 | D+4 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Michigan Attorney General | Global Strategy GroupD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Nevada Attorney General | Global Strategy GroupD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 | dems.ag ↗ |
| New York Attorney General | OnMessage Inc. for Komatireddy's campaignR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 1,000 LV | D 51 · R 45 | D+6 | vinnews.com ↗ |
| South Carolina Attorney General | Trafalgar GroupR sponsor | Oct 16–Oct 18 | 1,095 LV | D 37 · R 52 | R+15 | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| Wisconsin Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 27–Oct 1 | — V | D 50 · R 43 | D+7 | dems.ag ↗ |
| Arkansas's 2nd District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 383 LV | D 48 · R 52 | R+4 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Arizona's 2nd District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 345 LV | D 50 · R 48 | D+2 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| California's 11th District | USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 16–Oct 19 | 454 LV | D 51 · R — | — | thedemocracylab.com ↗ |
| California's 48th District | SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV (California), San Diego Union-Tribune | Oct 1–Oct 7 | 518 LV | D 47 · R 38 | D+9 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Colorado's 5th District | Global Strategy Group for Jessica Killin's campaignD sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 500 LV | D 43 · R 38 | D+5 | coloradosun.com ↗ |
| Colorado's 5th District | Global Strategy Group for Jessica Killin's campaignD sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 500 LV | D 46 · R 44 | D+2 | coloradosun.com ↗ |
| Florida's 13th District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15 | — LV | D 47 · R 46 | D+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Florida's 14th District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 315 LV | D 48 · R 43 | D+5 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Florida's 21st District | Upswing Research for James Martin's campaignD sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 402 LV | D 38 · R 49 | R+11 | tcpalm.com ↗ |
| Florida's 25th District | National Research for NRCC, Scott Singer's campaignR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 15 | 400 LV | D 42 · R 49 | R+7 | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Iowa's 2nd District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 344 LV | D 50 · R 47 | D+3 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Indiana's 5th District | Expedition Strategies for House Majority PACD sponsor | Sep 30–Oct 4 | — LV | D 47 · R 48 | R+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Kentucky's 6th District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | D 47 · R 41 | D+6 | x.com ↗ |
| Michigan's 7th District | Emerson College | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 314 LV | D 53 · R 45 | D+8 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Minnesota's 1st District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 13–Oct 14 | — LV | D 43 · R 43 | Even | x.com ↗ |
| Minnesota's 1st District | SurveyUSA for ABC6 | Oct 4–Oct 12 | 565 LV | D 46 · R 44 | D+2 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Missouri's 2nd District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | D 46 · R 45 | D+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Missouri's 2nd District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 401 LV | D 51 · R 46 | D+5 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Montana's 1st District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 329 LV | D 50 · R 46 | D+4 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Montana's 1st District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 14 | — LV | D 48 · R 45 | D+3 | x.com ↗ |
| North Carolina's 9th District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | D 42 · R 46 | R+4 | x.com ↗ |
| North Carolina's 11th District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 388 LV | D 56 · R 43 | D+13 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Nebraska's 1st District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 19–Oct 20 | — LV | D 45 · R 46 | R+1 | x.com ↗ |
| New Mexico's 1st District | Research & Polling Inc. for Albuquerque Journal | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 380 LV | D 53 · R 35 | D+18 | abqjournal.com ↗ |
| Nevada's 2nd District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 13 | — LV | D 44 · R 46 | R+2 | x.com ↗ |
| New York's 21st District | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 13 | — LV | D 44 · R 46 | R+2 | x.com ↗ |
| Ohio's 9th District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 481 LV | D 48 · R 48 | Even | dccc.org ↗ |
| Ohio's 15th District | Hart Research Associates for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 9–Oct 12 | — LV | D 48 · R 45 | D+3 | x.com ↗ |
| Pennsylvania's 1st District | Global Strategy Group for Bob Harvie's campaignD sponsor | Oct 1–Oct 8 | 1,032 LV | D 46 · R 46 | Even | politico.com ↗ |
| Pennsylvania's 8th District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 396 LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| South Dakota's at-large District | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 500 RV | D 32 · R 60 | R+28 | sdnewswatch.org ↗ |
| Texas's 15th District | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center for San Antonio Express-News | Oct 13–Oct 16 | — LV | D 51 · R 44 | D+7 | expressnews.com ↗ |
| Texas's 23rd District | Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 5–Oct 7 | — LV | D 46 · R 46 | Even | x.com ↗ |
| Texas's 28th District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Oct 7–Oct 13 | 536 LV | D 54 · R 34 | D+20 | dccc.org ↗ |
| Texas's 35th District | Emerson College for Poll Vault | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 417 LV | D 51 · R 49 | D+2 | pollvault.substack.com ↗ |
| Texas's 35th District | Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PACD sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 14 | — LV | D 47 · R 45 | D+2 | x.com ↗ |
| Washington's 3rd District | DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting | Sep 17–Sep 27 | 543 LV | D 47 · R 48 | R+1 | opb.org ↗ |
| Wisconsin's 1st District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 495 LV | D 48 · R 48 | Even | hub.nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | ActiVote | Oct 15–Oct 21 | 1,000 LV | D 53.7 · R 46.3 | D+7 | activote.net ↗ |
| Presidential approval | American Research Institute | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 1,100 A | Approve 29 · Disapprove 67 | −38 net | americanresearchgroup.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Strength in Numbers/Verasight | Oct 16–Oct 20 | 2,028 A | Approve 34 · Disapprove 62 | −28 net | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 3,494 LV | D 51.73 · R 41.22 | D+11 | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 3,494 RV | D 50.86 · R 39.32 | D+12 | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Verasight for Strength In Numbers | Oct 13–Oct 19 | 1,824 LV | D 54 · R 42 | D+12 | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Verasight for Strength In Numbers | Oct 13–Oct 19 | 1,824 RV | D 52 · R 41 | D+11 | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Verasight for Strength In Numbers | Oct 13–Oct 19 | 2,028 A | D 50 · R 40 | D+10 | gelliottmorris.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Echelon Insights | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 1,010 LV | D 50 · R 45 | D+5 | echeloninsights.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | New York Times/Siena | Oct 12–Oct 19 | 3,494 RV | Approve 34 · Disapprove 60 | −26 net | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | CNN/SSRS | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,206 RV | D 49 · R 39 | D+10 | edition.cnn.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies for CNBC | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 1,000 RV | D 52 · R 45 | D+7 | cnbc.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult | Oct 12–Oct 18 | 17,706 LV | D 50.44 · R 43.14 | D+7 | intel.morningconsult.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | AP-NORC | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 925 RV | D 47 · R 38 | D+9 | apnorc.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | AP-NORC | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 1,119 A | D 43 · R 34 | D+9 | apnorc.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Noble Predictive Insights for Center Square | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 2,527 RV | D 47 · R 42 | D+5 | thecentersquare.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 1,000 RV | D 40 · R 36 | D+4 | independentcenter.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 1,200 A | D 38 · R 35 | D+3 | independentcenter.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Honest Poll | Oct 4–Oct 6 | 780 LV | D 54 · R 42 | D+12 | thehonestpoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Honest Poll | Oct 4–Oct 6 | 939 RV | D 52 · R 41 | D+11 | thehonestpoll.com ↗ |
Fundraising
42 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 21. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Kirschner Democratic | Florida's 16th District | $876,363 | +$124,746 | $261,139 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Victoria Spartz Republican | Indiana's 5th District | $2,192,717 | +$114,092 | $514,922 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Brett Guthrie Republican | Kentucky's 2nd District | $5,986,647 | +$89,419 | $1,447,296 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Todd Achilles Independent | U.S. Senate in Idaho | $1,720,883 | +$88,548 | $395,407 | Sep 30 |
| Mark Harris Republican | North Carolina's 8th District | $1,238,724 | +$72,051 | $411,264 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Pramila Jayapal Democratic | Washington's 7th District | $2,920,967 | +$69,450 | $1,753,241 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Celeste Maloy Republican | Utah's 3rd District | $1,652,695 | +$62,793 | $359,561 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Steve Womack Republican | Arkansas's 3rd District | $2,363,074 | +$60,916 | $2,410,732 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Nirav Sheth Republican | Washington's 7th District | $71,544 | +$59,733 | $4,877 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Rick Allen Republican | Georgia's 12th District | $1,265,488 | +$58,447 | $1,464,865 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Micah Lasher Democratic | New York's 12th District | $3,493,974 | +$53,212 | $309,209 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Nicole Locklin Democratic | Florida's 26th District | $599,527 | +$38,930 | $109,990 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
Show 30 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Babin Republican | Texas's 36th District | $1,201,014 | +$36,440 | $928,300 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Courtney McClain Democratic | South Carolina's 4th District | $130,730 | +$30,234 | $50,465 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Grace Meng Democratic | New York's 6th District | $2,199,074 | +$28,040 | $765,125 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Stephen Lynch Democratic | Massachusetts's 8th District | $1,052,703 | +$24,871 | $493,969 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Ed Case Democratic | Hawaii's 1st District | $1,339,008 | +$23,975 | $449,674 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Alma Adams Democratic | North Carolina's 12th District | $483,375 | +$18,200 | $483,997 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Peter Crosby Democratic | Utah's 2nd District | $153,918 | +$15,536 | $47,879 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Frank Lucas Republican | Oklahoma's 3rd District | $1,055,085 | +$15,165 | $570,474 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| David Dawson Democratic | Iowa's 4th District | $259,241 | +$13,993 | $41,976 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Everett Wess Democratic | U.S. Senate in Alabama | $128,570 | +$11,683 | $10,708 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Dan Barrios Democratic | Texas's 32nd District | $160,379 | +$9,909 | $8,745 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas Democratic | U.S. Senate in Oklahoma | $115,954 | +$8,959 | $24,102 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Mike Collins Republican | U.S. Senate in Georgia | $10,257,244 | +$7,528 | $1,149,075 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Amish Shah Democratic | Arizona's 1st District | $5,031,605 | −$7,000 | $510,966 | Sep 30 |
| Joyce Beatty Democratic | Ohio's 3rd District | $1,454,156 | +$6,575 | $2,731,737 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Beth Farnham Democratic | Pennsylvania's 13th District | $107,708 | +$6,516 | $25,092 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Cinde Wirth Democratic | Indiana's 6th District | $91,566 | +$5,598 | $26,538 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Paul Gosar Republican | Arizona's 9th District | $769,144 | +$5,000 | $318,972 | Sep 30 |
| Jack Codiga Republican | North Carolina's 12th District | $31,704 | +$3,000 | $3 | Jun 30 |
| Thurman Bartie Democratic | Texas's 14th District | $39,403 | +$2,700 | $4,754 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Mary Miller Republican | Illinois's 15th District | $1,777,787 | +$1,690 | $940,055 | Sep 30 |
| James Hooper Republican | Michigan's 12th District | $2,002 | +$552 | $7,769 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Robert Murray Republican | Virginia's 4th District | $1,550 | +$322 | $1,509 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Brian Miller Democratic | Montana's 2nd District | $30,958 | +$304 | $669 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Carmen Bucco Republican | New Jersey's 10th District | $8,931 | +$275 | $2,293 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Bennie Thompson Democratic | Mississippi's 2nd District | $928,245 | +$200 | $1,282,156 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Bill Reeside Libertarian | South Carolina's 1st District | $115,492 | +$100 | $3,660 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Michael Chiaradio Democratic | Mississippi's 3rd District | $208,208 | +$25 | $31,092 | Sep 30 |
| Kyle Austin Libertarian | U.S. Senate in Montana | $261,825 | +$0 | $2,684 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Stephanie Vargas Republican | California's 33rd District | $721 | +$0 | $521 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 21.