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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Michigan › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Michigan

El-Sayed is favored to win: El-Sayed wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

El-Sayed (D)
76%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
24%
Average margin
D+3.5
80% of outcomes
R+3 to D+10
Partisan lean
Even
Polls
61in our database

El-Sayed is favored to win: El-Sayed wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

El-Sayed (D)
76%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
24%
Average margin
D+4.0
80% of outcomes
R+4 to D+12
Partisan lean
Even
Polls
61in our database

Range of outcomes

D+3.5R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+4.0R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3El-Sayed 76%Rogers 24%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3El-Sayed 76%Rogers 24%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Abdul El-Sayed

Former Wayne County health director (2023–2025) and candidate for governor in 2018

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$14.5M
From individuals
$14.4M
Spent
$12M
Cash on hand
$2.6M

Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Mike Rogers

Former U.S. representative from MI-8 (2001–2015) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$20.6M
From individuals
$13.7M
Spent
$14.3M
Cash on hand
$6.5M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+8.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+5.7Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Michigan andlook-alike placesD+5.7Polling average48 polls, latest Oct 10D+2.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+3.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+4.0

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.02
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-0.89
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+2.9Nov 21Nov 3
All 60 polls
PollsterDatesSampleEl-SayedRogersMarginAdjusted
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredOct 9–Oct 101,200 LV4846D+2D+3.2
Wedgewood PollsOct 8–Oct 9607 LV5347D+6D+5.7
The Tyson GroupOct 6–Oct 8600 LV4446R+2
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 6762 LV4847D+1D+3.6
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 6762 LV5149D+2D+3.6
YouGovSep 22–Oct 43,949 LV4948D+1R+0.3
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1–Oct 1682 LV4641D+5D+5.8
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredSep 28–Oct 1483 LV4942D+7
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 301,085 LV4745D+2
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,028 LV5049D+1D+0.3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,203 RV5148D+3D+0.3
Marist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,235 RV5144D+7
Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LV4843D+5
Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 27800 LV4945D+4
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24678 LV4742D+5
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24678 LV4640D+6
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24725 RV4439D+5
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 23843 LV4545Even
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 23843 LV5050Even
GBAOD-sponsoredSep 19–Sep 22800 LV4844D+4
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22605 LV4944D+5
Cygnal/Beacon Research for Michigan EnjoyerSep 18–Sep 21600 LV4540D+5
Suffolk UniversitySep 16–Sep 20500 LV4740D+7
Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America PAC, which supports RepublicansR-sponsoredSep 15–Sep 19643 LV4344R+1
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 16–Sep 171,200 LV4745D+2
Emerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LV4846D+2
The Washington Post/SSPGSep 10–Sep 14803 LV4845D+3
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 7–Sep 91,079 LV4645D+1
SSRS for CNNAug 31–Sep 6843 LV4744D+3
Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TVAug 31–Sep 3600 LV4446R+2
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28332 LV4945D+4
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28500 RV4841D+7
EPIC-MRAAug 22–Aug 28600 LV5045D+5
EPIC-MRAAug 22–Aug 28600 LV4743D+4
Michigan State University/YouGovAug 10–Aug 20779 LV5045D+5
Michigan State University/YouGovAug 10–Aug 20913 RV4844D+4
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR-sponsoredAug 11–Aug 17800 LV4639D+7
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPAug 9–Aug 11877 LV4847D+1
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 6–Aug 101,528 RV4339D+4
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 6–Aug 101,215 LV4542D+3
GBAO for Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsoredAug 6–Aug 10800 LV5044D+6
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAug 6–Aug 101,006 RV4751R+4
EPIC-MRA for MIRS NewsJul 24–Jul 31600 LV4346R+3
SoCal Strategies for Red Eagle PoliticsR-sponsoredJul 28–Jul 30640 LV4142R+1
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28–Jul 29672 LV4545Even
Glengariff GroupJul 22–Jul 24600 LV3949R+10
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredJun 29–Jun 30947 LV4544D+1
Data for Progress for the Working Families Party, which supports El-SayedD-sponsoredJun 15–Jun 22709 LV4746D+1
Zenith Research for Common Defense, which supports El-SayedD-sponsoredJun 11–Jun 14602 LV4542D+3
Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS NewsJun 11–Jun 13827 LV4742D+5
Tulchin Research for Fighting for Michigan, a pro-El-Sayed super PACD-sponsoredJun 2–Jun 4500 LV4641D+5
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMay 20–May 231,456 RV4040Even
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMay 20–May 231,163 LV4342D+1
Mitchell Research for MIRS NewsMay 1–May 7607 LV4142R+1
Glengariff Group for The Detroit Regional ChamberApr 28–May 1600 LV4045R+5
Glengariff Group for The Detroit Regional ChamberApr 28–May 1600 LV4245R+3
Emerson CollegeJan 24–Jan 251,000 LV4343Even
Glengariff Group for The Detroit News, which supports Stevens, and WDIV-TVJan 2–Jan 6600 LV4743D+4
Glengariff Group for The Detroit News, which supports Stevens, and WDIV-TVJan 2–Jan 6600 LV4248R+6
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 18–Nov 21616 LV3841R+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 10, 2026.

The state

Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+0.2R+2.5 vs. nation2020 presidentD+2.8R+1.7 vs. nation2024 presidentR+1.4D+0.1 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
10,077,761
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
50%of adults
  • White 72%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 13%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

5,553,169 two-party votes · R+1.4 · D+0.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%

2020

5,479,820 votes · D+1.7
✓ Gary Peters (D)49.9%
John James (R)48.2%
Valerie L. Willis (CST)0.9%
Marcia Squier (G)0.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

5,453,892 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%

2016 President Vote in this state

4,548,382 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+2.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%

2014

3,121,698 votes · D+13.8
✓ Gary C. Peters (D)54.6%
Terri Lynn Land (R)41.3%
Jim Fulner (L)2.0%
Richard A. Matkin (CST)1.2%
Chris Wahmhoff (G)0.8%

2008

4,848,620 votes · D+29.9
✓ Carl Levin (D)62.7%
Jack Hoogendyk (R)33.8%
Scotty Boman (L)1.6%
Harley G. Mikkelson (G)0.9%
Michael N. Nikitin (CST)0.6%

2002

3,129,287 votes · D+23.1
✓ Carl Levin (D)60.6%
Andrew Raczkowski (R)37.9%
Eric Borregard (G)0.8%

Also on the ballot in Michigan

GovernorJocelyn BensonJohn James90%Dem.88%Dem.