Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 68%no change
Expected seats 51.6 D · 48.4 R (0 D since Sep 6)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 59%no change
Expected seats 51.1 D · 48.9 R (0 D since Sep 6)
D 59%, 59% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 7
Monday, September 7, 2026
- Calls changed
- 4
- Party changes
- 3
- New polls
- 3
- Compared with
- Sep 6
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 6. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 90%no change
Expected seats 231.6 D · 203.4 R (−0.1 D since Sep 6)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.D 83%no change
Expected seats 231.7 D · 203.3 R (0 D since Sep 6)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 65%no change
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (0 D since Sep 6)
D 65%, 65% Democratic.D 70%no change
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (0 D since Sep 6)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.3no change
Forecast environment
D+7.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 6.
Every call change
4 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 6 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 3 changes in 3 chambers
Minnesota State Senate · 1 change
- SD-32Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Missouri House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-89Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change
- State House District Strafford 07Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
3 polls new since Sep 6, in 3 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Montana | Rutgers-Eagleton for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 845 RV | Ind. 30 · R 38 | R+8 | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
| Montana's 1st District | Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 375 RV | D 41 · R 42 | R+1 | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
| Montana's 2nd District | Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 470 RV | D 26 · R 48 | R+22 | montanafreepress.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 6.