Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 68%▼ R +1
Expected seats 51.6 D · 48.4 R (−0.1 D since Sep 5)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 59%no change
Expected seats 51.1 D · 48.9 R (0 D since Sep 5)
D 59%, 59% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 6
Sunday, September 6, 2026
- Calls changed
- 5
- Party changes
- 4
- New polls
- 9
- Compared with
- Sep 5
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 5. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 90%no change
Expected seats 231.7 D · 203.3 R (0 D since Sep 5)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.D 83%no change
Expected seats 231.7 D · 203.3 R (0 D since Sep 5)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 65%no change
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (0 D since Sep 5)
D 65%, 65% Democratic.D 70%no change
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (+0.1 D since Sep 5)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.3D +0.1
Forecast environment
D+7.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 5 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Every call change
5 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 5 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 4 changes in 4 chambers
California State Senate · 1 change
- SD-6Toss-up → Lean R
Minnesota State Senate · 1 change
- SD-32Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change
- Sullivan 7Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Oklahoma House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-83Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
9 polls new since Sep 5, in 6 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Maine | SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 880 LV | D 48 · R 45 | D+3 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 843 LV | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Maine Governor | SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 880 LV | D 52 · R 39 | D+13 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 843 LV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District | Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 820 LV | Ind. 37 · R 44 | R+7 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District | Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 739 LV | Ind. 47 · R 50 | R+3 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| California's 6th District | The Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council, which supports Kiley | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 927 LV | D 37 · R 37 | Even | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult | Sep 4–Sep 6 | 2,203 RV | D 46 · R 42 | D+4 | pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Quinnipiac University | Sep 3–Sep 6 | 970 RV | D 49 · R 38 | D+11 | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 5.