Democratic
South Carolina › South Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina House District 98
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Satani (D)
45%
chance of winning
Ford (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Satani (D)
42%
chance of winning
Ford (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Greg Ford
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.34 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 36,843
- People per km²
- 1,059
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 25%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
17,303 votes · R+14.0✓ Chris Murphy (R)56.9%
Sonja Ogletree Satani (D)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
17,489 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Kamala Harris (D)46.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
11,713 votes · R+15.8✓ Christopher J Murphy (R)57.8%
Sydney Clinton (D)42.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
15,714 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Chris Murphy (R)95.1%
Writein (—)4.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
18,655 two-party votes · R+5.8 · R+10.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.9%
Joe Biden (D)47.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
15,336 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%