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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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Connecticut › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Connecticut Governor

Fusion

Lamont is very likely to win: Lamont wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Lamont (D)
99%
chance of winning
Fazio (R)
1%
Average margin
D+18.1
80% of outcomes
D+10 to D+27
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
10in our database

Lamont is very likely to win: Lamont wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Lamont (D)
99%
chance of winning
Fazio (R)
1%
Average margin
D+19.7
80% of outcomes
D+10 to D+30
Partisan lean
D+16
Polls
10in our database

Range of outcomes

D+18.1R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
D+19.7R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How this race is decided

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lamont 99%Fazio 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Lamont 99%Fazio 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Connecticut state offices
+0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+26.3Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+20.9Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Connecticut andlook-alike placesD+23.0Polling average9 polls, latest Oct 12D+17.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+18.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+19.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0.79
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0.79

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. D+17.4Jun 23Nov 3
All 10 polls
PollsterDatesSampleLamontFazioMarginAdjusted
Quinnipiac University Polling InstituteOct 8–Oct 121,225 LV5838D+20D+20.1
Emerson College for Nexstar MediaOct 10–Oct 12800 LV5138D+13D+16.3
University of New HampshireSep 17–Sep 21540 LV5538D+17D+18.6
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 16–Sep 17979 LV4841D+7D+12.2
Quinnipiac University Polling InstituteSep 8–Sep 141,288 LV5538D+17D+17.9
GreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart UniversitySep 1–Sep 81,000 RV4834D+14D+17.8
GreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart UniversitySep 1–Sep 81,000 RV5237D+15D+17.8
University of New HampshireAug 20–Aug 24809 LV5237D+15
Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT InsiderJul 21–Jul 261,000 RV5030D+20
University of New HampshireJun 18–Jun 23828 LV4936D+13

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.

The state

Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+14.3D+12.1 vs. nation2020 presidentD+20.4D+15.9 vs. nation2024 presidentD+14.8D+16.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,624,508
Adults with a B.A.+
43%
White, no degree
35%of adults
  • White 62%
  • Hispanic 18%
  • Black 10%
  • Asian 5%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,728,971 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%

2022

1,267,810 votes · D+13.0
✓ Ned Lamont (D)55.9%
Bob Stefanowski (R)43.1%
Robert Hotaling (OTH)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,795,548 two-party votes · D+20.4 · D+15.9 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)60.2%
Donald Trump (R)39.8%

2018

1,406,774 votes · D+3.3
✓ Ned Lamont And Susan Bysiewicz (D)49.4%
Bob Stefanowski And Joe Markley (R)46.2%
Oz Griebel And Monte E Frank (OTH)3.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,570,787 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+12.1 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%

2014

1,080,609 votes · D+2.6
✓ Dan Malloy (D)51.3%
Tom C. Foley (R)48.7%

2010

1,128,152 votes · D+0.6
✓ Dan Malloy (D)50.3%
Tom C. Foley (R)49.7%

2006

1,108,268 votes · R+28.1
✓ M. Jodi Rell (R)64.1%
John DeStefano Jr (D)35.9%

2002

1,022,942 votes · R+12.2
✓ John G. Rowland (R)56.1%
Bill Curry (D)43.9%