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Minnesota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Minnesota House of Representatives?

All 134 seats are on the ballot. 68 seats make a majority. No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement. 90 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Minnesota House of Representatives (98%).

Democrats
98%
chance of control
Republicans
2%
Avg. D seats
78.280% range 72–85
Avg. R seats
55.880% range 49–62
Now
67 D · 66 R · 1 vacant134 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (90+ seats): 1%

67 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party66 R now

Tie: No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement.

Democrats are very likely to control the Minnesota House of Representatives (95%).

Democrats
95%
chance of control
Republicans
5%
Avg. D seats
77.380% range 70–85
Avg. R seats
56.780% range 49–64
Now
67 D · 66 R · 1 vacant134 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (90+ seats): 1%

67 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party66 R now

Tie: No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement.

68 for control
68 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 134 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

11 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Minnesota

Minneapolis-St. Paul

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 98%Republicans 2%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 95%Republicans 5%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

68 for D control →D two-thirds →65707580859095
68 for D control →D two-thirds →6065707580859095

Every race

134 races, 17 without a contest between the major parties.

134 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1A
● Leanna Sandahl● John BurkelINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.2R+36.8Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-1B
● Jennifer Compeau● Steve GanderINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.1R+25.8Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-2A
● Reed Olson● Bidal Duran Jr.INC
40%60%
39%61%
R+1.9R+2.6Lean RLean RR+7—
HD-2B
● Emily Thabes● Matt BlissINC
2%98%
3%97%
R+17.2R+20.2Solid RSolid RR+25—
HD-3A
● Aaron Kania● Roger SkrabaINC
36%64%
39%61%
R+2.7R+2.6Lean RLean RR+7—
HD-3BD flipD flip
● Aaron Schweiger● Natalie ZeleznikarINC
76%24%
80%20%
D+5.4D+8.1Lean DLikely DD+4—
HD-4A
● Erika Yoney● Andrew Rockhold
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.5D+20.5Solid DSolid DD+16—
HD-4B
● Thaddeus Laugisch● Jim JoyINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.4R+18.2Solid RSolid RR+24—
HD-5A
● Dan S. Mitchell● Krista KnudsenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.6R+36.4Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-5B
● Maggie Evers● Jonathan Claussen
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.9R+47.2Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-6A
● Samuel Grigsby● Ben DavisINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.3R+21.3Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-6B
● Nicky Hardy● Josh HeintzemanINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.8R+22.8Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-7A
● Erin McCabe Ningen● Spencer IgoINC
6%94%
11%89%
R+11.8R+12.2Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-7B
● Dan Horoshak● Cal WarwasINC
25%75%
35%65%
R+5.2R+3.5Lean RLean RR+8—
HD-8A
● Peter JohnsonINC● Allan Kehr II
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.2D+39.0Solid DSolid DD+36—
HD-8B
● Liish KozlowskiINC● Shawn Savela
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+43.7D+44.8Solid DSolid DD+42—
HD-9A
● Nicholas Hanson● Jeff BackerINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+22.5R+23.2Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-9B
● Owen Werner● Tom MurphyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.7R+34.6Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-10A
● Melissa Maertens● Mark Striemer
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.3R+35.2Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-10B
● Jeff Larson● Isaac SchultzINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.4R+52.4Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-11AFlip riskFlip risk
● Chris Swanson● Jeff DotsethINC
55%45%
57%43%
D+0.9D+1.7Toss-upToss-upR+3—
HD-11B
● Jack L'Heureux● Nathan NelsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.8R+33.1Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-12A
● Talitha Anderson● Paul H. AndersonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+29.0R+31.0Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-12B
● Michael Gardner● Mary FransonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.2R+31.9Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-13A
● Arlis Sayler● Tanja Goering
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.4R+35.5Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-13B
● Justin Doyle● Dawn Loberg
1%99%
2%98%
R+17.8R+20.9Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-14AD flipFlip risk
● Abdi Daisane● Mike Conway
62%38%
49%51%
D+2.2R+0.2Lean DToss-upR+5—
HD-14B
● Zachary "Zach" Dorholt● Sue Ek
89%11%
67%33%
D+8.8D+4.0Likely DLean DEven—
HD-15A
● Nathan Schmig● Bradley L Hennen
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.1R+27.2Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-15B
● Keith R. Klawitter● Geri Theis
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.3R+32.1Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-16A
● David J Torgelson● Scott Van BinsbergenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.0R+33.6Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-16B
● Julie Henslin● Dave BakerINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+23.6R+23.8Solid RSolid RR+30—
HD-17A
● Mali Anderson● Dawn GillmanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.0R+33.8Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-17B
● Ben Wieman● Bobbie HarderINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.7R+30.6Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-18AD flipD flip
● Leah Hanson● Erica SchwartzINC
66%34%
69%31%
D+3.0D+4.6Lean DLean DEven—
HD-18B
● Luke FrederickINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
HD-19A
● Martha Brown● Keith AllenINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.2R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-19B
● Zack Meyman● Thomas J. SextonINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.8R+16.4Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-20A
● Heather Arndt● Pam AltendorfINC
19%81%
26%74%
R+6.4R+6.0Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-20B
● Steve Holm● Sara Bertschinger
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.5R+24.5Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-21A
● LS Rusty Nelson● Krist Wollum
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.2R+40.6Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-21B
● Jon Wilson● Marj J FogelmanINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.1R+26.6Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-22A
● Sonja L. Denn● Bjorn OlsonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.6R+27.8Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-22B
● Mary Nesgoda● Terry Matthew StierINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.2R+27.1Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-23A
● Joe Staloch● Nick Ronnenberg
2%98%
3%97%
R+15.7R+20.9Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-23B
● Christoph Dundas● Patricia MuellerINC
27%73%
32%68%
R+4.4R+4.4Lean RLean RR+10—
HD-24A
● Heather Holmes● Duane QuamINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+14.0R+16.4Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-24B
● Tina LieblingINC● John Michael Ajouri
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.7D+21.1Solid DSolid DD+17—
HD-25A
● Kim HicksINC● Brad Trahan
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+23.7D+20.0Solid DSolid DD+16—
HD-25B
● Andy SmithINC● Wes Lund
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.2D+33.3Solid DSolid DD+29—
HD-26AD flipD flip
● Dan Wilson● Aaron Repinski
79%21%
73%27%
D+5.9D+5.8Lean DLean DD+1—
HD-26B
● Allie Wolf● Gregory M. DavidsINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.9R+16.5Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-27A
● Vanessa Davenport● Shane MekelandINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.9R+36.6Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-27B
● Charles A. McConaughay● Bryan LawrenceINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.4R+40.5Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-28A
● Tim Dummer● James "Jimmy" GordonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.0R+33.9Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-28B
● Daniel Colten Schmidt● Max RymerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+21.2R+24.2Solid RSolid RR+30—
HD-29A
● Emily Dahlgren● Joe McDonaldINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.6R+29.7Solid RSolid RR+35—
HD-29B
● Colton Kratky● Marion RarickINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.9R+23.1Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-30A
● Joey Smyth● Walter HudsonINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+18.3R+20.9Solid RSolid RR+25—
HD-30B
● Keenan Gentry● Chad Westberg
1%99%
2%98%
R+17.4R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-31A
● Brian Walker● Harry NiskaINC
5%96%
9%91%
R+12.8R+12.8Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-31B
● Jen Bloomquist● Peggy ScottINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.3R+27.7Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-32A
● Amanda Matchett● Nolan WestINC
22%78%
36%64%
R+6.0R+3.2Lean RLean RR+7—
HD-32B
● Matt NorrisINC● Leslie Larson
94%6%
75%25%
D+11.7D+6.1Likely DLean DD+2—
HD-33AFlip risk
● Angela Thompson● Stacey Stout
41%59%
34%66%
R+1.6R+3.7Toss-upLean RR+7—
HD-33B
● Josiah HillINC● Jessica L. Johnson
97%3%
89%11%
D+14.1D+11.9Solid DLikely DD+8—
HD-34AD flipD flip
● Jason Heaser● Danny NadeauINC
61%39%
66%34%
D+2.0D+3.9Lean DLean DEven—
HD-34B
● Xp LeeINC● Ruth Bittner
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.0D+31.4Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-35A
● Zack StephensonINC● Josh Jungling
96%4%
80%20%
D+14.3D+8.1Solid DLikely DD+4—
HD-35B
● Kari RehrauerINC● Steve Pape
95%5%
78%22%
D+12.7D+7.1Solid DLean DD+3—
HD-36AD flipD flip
● Jim DeMay● Sebastian Stoss
87%13%
73%27%
D+8.4D+5.7Likely DLean DD+2—
HD-36B
● Brion CurranINC● Patty Bradway
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+21.8D+20.9Solid DSolid DD+17—
HD-37AD flipD flip
● Darci Smith● Tom McKee
79%21%
64%36%
D+6.0D+3.5Lean DLean DR+1—
HD-37B
● Kristin BahnerINC● Luke Doerer
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.1D+21.0Solid DSolid DD+17—
HD-38A
● Huldah Momanyi-HiltsleyINC● Charlie Kistler
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.8D+40.9Solid DSolid DD+36—
HD-38B
● Samantha VangINC● Robert Marvin
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+49.4D+50.1Solid DSolid DD+46—
HD-39A
● Aaron Klemz● Andy Macko
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.6D+32.1Solid DSolid DD+28—
HD-39B
● Amáda Márquez Simula● KT Jacobs
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+45.8D+47.8Solid DSolid DD+44—
HD-40A
● Aisha Elmquist● Luis Withrow
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.5D+31.3Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-40B
● David GottfriedINC● Allen Shen
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+43.5D+43.5Solid DSolid DD+40—
HD-41AD flipD flip
● Cole Birkeland● Wayne A JohnsonINC
81%19%
79%21%
D+6.4D+7.8Likely DLean DD+4—
HD-41BD flipD flip
● Jen Fox● William Beck
84%16%
64%36%
D+7.2D+3.2Likely DLean DR+1—
HD-42A
● Ned CarrollINC● Kathy Burkett
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.5D+30.1Solid DSolid DD+25—
HD-42B
● Ginny KlevornINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+30—
HD-43A
● Kyrstin Schuette● Todd Hesemann
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.8D+41.9Solid DSolid DD+38—
HD-43B
● Jess Lewis● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+53—
HD-44A
● Peter M FischerINC● Justin Middaugh
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.3D+31.0Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-44B
● Leon M. LillieINC● No RepublicanAlso: TJ Hawthorne (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+17—
HD-45AD flipD flip
● Tracey Breazeale● Andrew MyersINC
67%33%
73%27%
D+3.4D+5.9Lean DLean DD+2—
HD-45B
● Patty AcombINC● Thomas Bergerson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.7D+36.6Solid DSolid DD+32—
HD-46A
● Larry KraftINC● Karl Olson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.9D+59.2Solid DSolid DD+55—
HD-46B
● Cheryl YouakimINC● Kim Rich
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+46.9D+49.5Solid DSolid DD+45—
HD-47A
● Shelley BuckINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+26—
HD-47B
● Ethan ChaINC● No RepublicanAlso: Kim Wilson (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+19—
HD-48A
● Joe Brothers● Jim NashINC
17%83%
27%73%
R+7.3R+5.8Likely RLean RR+10—
HD-48B
● Lucille "Lucy" RehmINC● Caleb Steffenhagen
99%1%
93%7%
D+17.6D+14.6Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-49A
● Alex FalconerINC● Jeff Houdek
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.0D+35.5Solid DSolid DD+31—
HD-49B
● Carlie Kotyza-WitthuhnINC● Wendy Cregg
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.3D+32.2Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-50A
● Julie GreeneINC● Chris Wedum
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.1D+45.8Solid DSolid DD+41—
HD-50B
● Steve ElkinsINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
HD-51A
● Michael HowardINC● Frank Pafko
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.5D+54.9Solid DSolid DD+51—
HD-51B
● Nathan CoulterINC● Jim Lund
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+36.4D+34.9Solid DSolid DD+30—
HD-52A
● Christos Roy Jensen● George Gilmour
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.8D+31.7Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-52B
● Bianca VirnigINC● Tom Lopac
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.8D+35.4Solid DSolid DD+31—
HD-53A
● Mary Frances ClardyINC● AJ Gubash
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.5D+25.1Solid DSolid DD+21—
HD-53B
● Rick HansenINC● Patti Mikulski
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+24.0D+18.7Solid DSolid DD+14—
HD-54A
● Brad TabkeINC● Aaron Paul
97%3%
85%15%
D+14.6D+9.7Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-54B
● Christopher Kartschoke● Natalie Barnes
18%82%
21%79%
R+6.6R+7.5Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-55A
● Jessica HansonINC● Pam Myhra
99%1%
95%5%
D+17.5D+16.1Solid DLikely DD+12—
HD-55B
● Hunter Cantrell● Todd Buchwald
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.9D+25.7Solid DSolid DD+21—
HD-56A
● Robert BiermanINC● A.J. Prospect
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+31.0D+27.7Solid DSolid DD+23—
HD-56B
● John HuotINC● Andrew Hattaway
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+22.8D+19.0Solid DSolid DD+15—
HD-57A
● JD Delgado● Jon KoznickINC
6%94%
12%88%
R+11.5R+11.1Likely RLikely RR+16—
HD-57BD flipD flip
● Brian Cohn● Jeff WitteINC
72%28%
76%24%
D+4.2D+6.6Lean DLean DD+2—
HD-58A
● Kristi PursellINC● Steven E. Cherney
98%2%
86%14%
D+16.2D+10.5Solid DLikely DD+6—
HD-58B
● Ed Fellows● Drew RoachINC
7%93%
10%90%
R+10.7R+12.3Likely RLikely RR+18—
HD-59A
● Fue LeeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+67—
HD-59B
● Esther AgbajeINC● Kenneth Smoron
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+69.6D+75.3Solid DSolid DD+71—
HD-60A
● Sydney JordanINC● John Holmberg
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+70.1D+76.3Solid DSolid DD+72—
HD-60B
● Mohamud NoorINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+71—
HD-61A
● Katie JonesINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+76—
HD-61B
● Jamie LongINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+81—
HD-62A
● Aisha GomezINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+81—
HD-62B
● Anquam MahamoudINC● Bob Sullentrop
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+76.7D+84.4Solid DSolid DD+81—
HD-63A
● Samantha Sencer-MuraINC● Kyle Bragg
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+74.2D+84.4Solid DSolid DD+81—
HD-63B
● Emma GreenmanINC● Nicholas Peters
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+73.4D+79.7Solid DSolid DD+76—
HD-64A
● Meg Luger-NikolaiINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+73—
HD-64B
● Dave PintoINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+66—
HD-65A
● Samakab HusseinINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+60—
HD-65B
● Sebastian Ellefson● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+56—
HD-66A
● Leigh FinkeINC● Mark Born
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+66.7D+71.8Solid DSolid DD+68—
HD-66B
● Athena HollinsINC● Mary O'Neal
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+53.3D+55.1Solid DSolid DD+51—
HD-67A
● Liz LeeINC● Jennifer McPherson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.7D+42.5Solid DSolid DD+38—
HD-67B
● Jay XiongINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).