Minnesota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Minnesota House of Representatives?
All 134 seats are on the ballot. 68 seats make a majority. No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement. 90 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the Minnesota House of Representatives (98%).
- Avg. D seats
- 78.280% range 72–85
- Avg. R seats
- 55.880% range 49–62
- Now
- 67 D · 66 R · 1 vacant134 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (90+ seats): 1%
67 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party66 R now
Tie: No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement.
Democrats are very likely to control the Minnesota House of Representatives (95%).
- Avg. D seats
- 77.380% range 70–85
- Avg. R seats
- 56.780% range 49–64
- Now
- 67 D · 66 R · 1 vacant134 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (90+ seats): 1%
67 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party66 R now
Tie: No tie-breaker: a 67-67 split in 2025 led to a power-sharing agreement.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 134 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
11 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D65
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Toss-up2
Solid D58
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Lean D12
Toss-up2
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Minnesota
Minneapolis-St. Paul
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
134 races, 17 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1A | ● Leanna Sandahl● John BurkelINC | R+33.2R+36.8 | R+42 | — | ||
| HD-1B | ● Jennifer Compeau● Steve GanderINC | R+23.1R+25.8 | R+32 | — | ||
| HD-2A | ● Reed Olson● Bidal Duran Jr.INC | R+1.9R+2.6 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-2B | ● Emily Thabes● Matt BlissINC | R+17.2R+20.2 | R+25 | — | ||
| HD-3A | ● Aaron Kania● Roger SkrabaINC | R+2.7R+2.6 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-3BD flipD flip | ● Aaron Schweiger● Natalie ZeleznikarINC | D+5.4D+8.1 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-4A | ● Erika Yoney● Andrew Rockhold | D+22.5D+20.5 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-4B | ● Thaddeus Laugisch● Jim JoyINC | R+17.4R+18.2 | R+24 | — | ||
| HD-5A | ● Dan S. Mitchell● Krista KnudsenINC | R+31.6R+36.4 | R+41 | — | ||
| HD-5B | ● Maggie Evers● Jonathan Claussen | R+38.9R+47.2 | R+52 | — | ||
| HD-6A | ● Samuel Grigsby● Ben DavisINC | R+19.3R+21.3 | R+26 | — | ||
| HD-6B | ● Nicky Hardy● Josh HeintzemanINC | R+20.8R+22.8 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-7A | ● Erin McCabe Ningen● Spencer IgoINC | R+11.8R+12.2 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-7B | ● Dan Horoshak● Cal WarwasINC | R+5.2R+3.5 | R+8 | — | ||
| HD-8A | ● Peter JohnsonINC● Allan Kehr II | D+40.2D+39.0 | D+36 | — | ||
| HD-8B | ● Liish KozlowskiINC● Shawn Savela | D+43.7D+44.8 | D+42 | — | ||
| HD-9A | ● Nicholas Hanson● Jeff BackerINC | R+22.5R+23.2 | R+29 | — | ||
| HD-9B | ● Owen Werner● Tom MurphyINC | R+30.7R+34.6 | R+40 | — | ||
| HD-10A | ● Melissa Maertens● Mark Striemer | R+28.3R+35.2 | R+41 | — | ||
| HD-10B | ● Jeff Larson● Isaac SchultzINC | R+45.4R+52.4 | R+58 | — | ||
| HD-11AFlip riskFlip risk | ● Chris Swanson● Jeff DotsethINC | D+0.9D+1.7 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-11B | ● Jack L'Heureux● Nathan NelsonINC | R+27.8R+33.1 | R+38 | — | ||
| HD-12A | ● Talitha Anderson● Paul H. AndersonINC | R+29.0R+31.0 | R+36 | — | ||
| HD-12B | ● Michael Gardner● Mary FransonINC | R+31.2R+31.9 | R+38 | — | ||
| HD-13A | ● Arlis Sayler● Tanja Goering | R+30.4R+35.5 | R+42 | — | ||
| HD-13B | ● Justin Doyle● Dawn Loberg | R+17.8R+20.9 | R+26 | — | ||
| HD-14AD flipFlip risk | ● Abdi Daisane● Mike Conway | D+2.2R+0.2 | R+5 | — | ||
| HD-14B | ● Zachary "Zach" Dorholt● Sue Ek | D+8.8D+4.0 | Even | — | ||
| HD-15A | ● Nathan Schmig● Bradley L Hennen | R+23.1R+27.2 | R+33 | — | ||
| HD-15B | ● Keith R. Klawitter● Geri Theis | R+26.3R+32.1 | R+38 | — | ||
| HD-16A | ● David J Torgelson● Scott Van BinsbergenINC | R+30.0R+33.6 | R+39 | — | ||
| HD-16B | ● Julie Henslin● Dave BakerINC | R+23.6R+23.8 | R+30 | — | ||
| HD-17A | ● Mali Anderson● Dawn GillmanINC | R+28.0R+33.8 | R+40 | — | ||
| HD-17B | ● Ben Wieman● Bobbie HarderINC | R+27.7R+30.6 | R+37 | — | ||
| HD-18AD flipD flip | ● Leah Hanson● Erica SchwartzINC | D+3.0D+4.6 | Even | — | ||
| HD-18B | ● Luke FrederickINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+14 | — | |
| HD-19A | ● Martha Brown● Keith AllenINC | R+19.2R+21.8 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-19B | ● Zack Meyman● Thomas J. SextonINC | R+15.8R+16.4 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-20A | ● Heather Arndt● Pam AltendorfINC | R+6.4R+6.0 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-20B | ● Steve Holm● Sara Bertschinger | R+19.5R+24.5 | R+31 | — | ||
| HD-21A | ● LS Rusty Nelson● Krist Wollum | R+34.2R+40.6 | R+46 | — | ||
| HD-21B | ● Jon Wilson● Marj J FogelmanINC | R+23.1R+26.6 | R+32 | — | ||
| HD-22A | ● Sonja L. Denn● Bjorn OlsonINC | R+24.6R+27.8 | R+34 | — | ||
| HD-22B | ● Mary Nesgoda● Terry Matthew StierINC | R+24.2R+27.1 | R+33 | — | ||
| HD-23A | ● Joe Staloch● Nick Ronnenberg | R+15.7R+20.9 | R+27 | — | ||
| HD-23B | ● Christoph Dundas● Patricia MuellerINC | R+4.4R+4.4 | R+10 | — | ||
| HD-24A | ● Heather Holmes● Duane QuamINC | R+14.0R+16.4 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-24B | ● Tina LieblingINC● John Michael Ajouri | D+24.7D+21.1 | D+17 | — | ||
| HD-25A | ● Kim HicksINC● Brad Trahan | D+23.7D+20.0 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-25B | ● Andy SmithINC● Wes Lund | D+35.2D+33.3 | D+29 | — | ||
| HD-26AD flipD flip | ● Dan Wilson● Aaron Repinski | D+5.9D+5.8 | D+1 | — | ||
| HD-26B | ● Allie Wolf● Gregory M. DavidsINC | R+15.9R+16.5 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-27A | ● Vanessa Davenport● Shane MekelandINC | R+31.9R+36.6 | R+41 | — | ||
| HD-27B | ● Charles A. McConaughay● Bryan LawrenceINC | R+35.4R+40.5 | R+46 | — | ||
| HD-28A | ● Tim Dummer● James "Jimmy" GordonINC | R+29.0R+33.9 | R+39 | — | ||
| HD-28B | ● Daniel Colten Schmidt● Max RymerINC | R+21.2R+24.2 | R+30 | — | ||
| HD-29A | ● Emily Dahlgren● Joe McDonaldINC | R+26.6R+29.7 | R+35 | — | ||
| HD-29B | ● Colton Kratky● Marion RarickINC | R+20.9R+23.1 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-30A | ● Joey Smyth● Walter HudsonINC | R+18.3R+20.9 | R+25 | — | ||
| HD-30B | ● Keenan Gentry● Chad Westberg | R+17.4R+22.5 | R+27 | — | ||
| HD-31A | ● Brian Walker● Harry NiskaINC | R+12.8R+12.8 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-31B | ● Jen Bloomquist● Peggy ScottINC | R+25.3R+27.7 | R+34 | — | ||
| HD-32A | ● Amanda Matchett● Nolan WestINC | R+6.0R+3.2 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-32B | ● Matt NorrisINC● Leslie Larson | D+11.7D+6.1 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-33AFlip risk | ● Angela Thompson● Stacey Stout | R+1.6R+3.7 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-33B | ● Josiah HillINC● Jessica L. Johnson | D+14.1D+11.9 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-34AD flipD flip | ● Jason Heaser● Danny NadeauINC | D+2.0D+3.9 | Even | — | ||
| HD-34B | ● Xp LeeINC● Ruth Bittner | D+33.0D+31.4 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-35A | ● Zack StephensonINC● Josh Jungling | D+14.3D+8.1 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-35B | ● Kari RehrauerINC● Steve Pape | D+12.7D+7.1 | D+3 | — | ||
| HD-36AD flipD flip | ● Jim DeMay● Sebastian Stoss | D+8.4D+5.7 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-36B | ● Brion CurranINC● Patty Bradway | D+21.8D+20.9 | D+17 | — | ||
| HD-37AD flipD flip | ● Darci Smith● Tom McKee | D+6.0D+3.5 | R+1 | — | ||
| HD-37B | ● Kristin BahnerINC● Luke Doerer | D+24.1D+21.0 | D+17 | — | ||
| HD-38A | ● Huldah Momanyi-HiltsleyINC● Charlie Kistler | D+40.8D+40.9 | D+36 | — | ||
| HD-38B | ● Samantha VangINC● Robert Marvin | D+49.4D+50.1 | D+46 | — | ||
| HD-39A | ● Aaron Klemz● Andy Macko | D+32.6D+32.1 | D+28 | — | ||
| HD-39B | ● Amáda Márquez Simula● KT Jacobs | D+45.8D+47.8 | D+44 | — | ||
| HD-40A | ● Aisha Elmquist● Luis Withrow | D+37.5D+31.3 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-40B | ● David GottfriedINC● Allen Shen | D+43.5D+43.5 | D+40 | — | ||
| HD-41AD flipD flip | ● Cole Birkeland● Wayne A JohnsonINC | D+6.4D+7.8 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-41BD flipD flip | ● Jen Fox● William Beck | D+7.2D+3.2 | R+1 | — | ||
| HD-42A | ● Ned CarrollINC● Kathy Burkett | D+30.5D+30.1 | D+25 | — | ||
| HD-42B | ● Ginny KlevornINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| HD-43A | ● Kyrstin Schuette● Todd Hesemann | D+39.8D+41.9 | D+38 | — | ||
| HD-43B | ● Jess Lewis● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+53 | — | |
| HD-44A | ● Peter M FischerINC● Justin Middaugh | D+33.3D+31.0 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-44B | ● Leon M. LillieINC● No RepublicanAlso: TJ Hawthorne (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+17 | — | |
| HD-45AD flipD flip | ● Tracey Breazeale● Andrew MyersINC | D+3.4D+5.9 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-45B | ● Patty AcombINC● Thomas Bergerson | D+41.7D+36.6 | D+32 | — | ||
| HD-46A | ● Larry KraftINC● Karl Olson | D+54.9D+59.2 | D+55 | — | ||
| HD-46B | ● Cheryl YouakimINC● Kim Rich | D+46.9D+49.5 | D+45 | — | ||
| HD-47A | ● Shelley BuckINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| HD-47B | ● Ethan ChaINC● No RepublicanAlso: Kim Wilson (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+19 | — | |
| HD-48A | ● Joe Brothers● Jim NashINC | R+7.3R+5.8 | R+10 | — | ||
| HD-48B | ● Lucille "Lucy" RehmINC● Caleb Steffenhagen | D+17.6D+14.6 | D+11 | — | ||
| HD-49A | ● Alex FalconerINC● Jeff Houdek | D+35.0D+35.5 | D+31 | — | ||
| HD-49B | ● Carlie Kotyza-WitthuhnINC● Wendy Cregg | D+31.3D+32.2 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-50A | ● Julie GreeneINC● Chris Wedum | D+44.1D+45.8 | D+41 | — | ||
| HD-50B | ● Steve ElkinsINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| HD-51A | ● Michael HowardINC● Frank Pafko | D+52.5D+54.9 | D+51 | — | ||
| HD-51B | ● Nathan CoulterINC● Jim Lund | D+36.4D+34.9 | D+30 | — | ||
| HD-52A | ● Christos Roy Jensen● George Gilmour | D+32.8D+31.7 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-52B | ● Bianca VirnigINC● Tom Lopac | D+34.8D+35.4 | D+31 | — | ||
| HD-53A | ● Mary Frances ClardyINC● AJ Gubash | D+27.5D+25.1 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-53B | ● Rick HansenINC● Patti Mikulski | D+24.0D+18.7 | D+14 | — | ||
| HD-54A | ● Brad TabkeINC● Aaron Paul | D+14.6D+9.7 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-54B | ● Christopher Kartschoke● Natalie Barnes | R+6.6R+7.5 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-55A | ● Jessica HansonINC● Pam Myhra | D+17.5D+16.1 | D+12 | — | ||
| HD-55B | ● Hunter Cantrell● Todd Buchwald | D+27.9D+25.7 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-56A | ● Robert BiermanINC● A.J. Prospect | D+31.0D+27.7 | D+23 | — | ||
| HD-56B | ● John HuotINC● Andrew Hattaway | D+22.8D+19.0 | D+15 | — | ||
| HD-57A | ● JD Delgado● Jon KoznickINC | R+11.5R+11.1 | R+16 | — | ||
| HD-57BD flipD flip | ● Brian Cohn● Jeff WitteINC | D+4.2D+6.6 | D+2 | — | ||
| HD-58A | ● Kristi PursellINC● Steven E. Cherney | D+16.2D+10.5 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-58B | ● Ed Fellows● Drew RoachINC | R+10.7R+12.3 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-59A | ● Fue LeeINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+67 | — | |
| HD-59B | ● Esther AgbajeINC● Kenneth Smoron | D+69.6D+75.3 | D+71 | — | ||
| HD-60A | ● Sydney JordanINC● John Holmberg | D+70.1D+76.3 | D+72 | — | ||
| HD-60B | ● Mohamud NoorINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+71 | — | |
| HD-61A | ● Katie JonesINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+76 | — | |
| HD-61B | ● Jamie LongINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+81 | — | |
| HD-62A | ● Aisha GomezINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+81 | — | |
| HD-62B | ● Anquam MahamoudINC● Bob Sullentrop | D+76.7D+84.4 | D+81 | — | ||
| HD-63A | ● Samantha Sencer-MuraINC● Kyle Bragg | D+74.2D+84.4 | D+81 | — | ||
| HD-63B | ● Emma GreenmanINC● Nicholas Peters | D+73.4D+79.7 | D+76 | — | ||
| HD-64A | ● Meg Luger-NikolaiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+73 | — | |
| HD-64B | ● Dave PintoINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+66 | — | |
| HD-65A | ● Samakab HusseinINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+60 | — | |
| HD-65B | ● Sebastian Ellefson● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+56 | — | |
| HD-66A | ● Leigh FinkeINC● Mark Born | D+66.7D+71.8 | D+68 | — | ||
| HD-66B | ● Athena HollinsINC● Mary O'Neal | D+53.3D+55.1 | D+51 | — | ||
| HD-67A | ● Liz LeeINC● Jennifer McPherson | D+44.7D+42.5 | D+38 | — | ||
| HD-67B | ● Jay XiongINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+43 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).