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Florida › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida Attorney General
Uthmeier is clearly favored to win: Uthmeier wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Rodríguez (D)
18%
chance of winning
Uthmeier (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 10in our database
Uthmeier is favored to win: Uthmeier wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rodríguez (D)
27%
chance of winning
Uthmeier (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 10in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
José Javier Rodríguez
Former assistant secretary of Labor for Employment and Training (2024–2025) and former state senator (2016–2020)
- Experience
- State legislature
RepublicanIncumbent
James Uthmeier
Incumbent attorney general
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −0.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.6Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 10 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Rodríguez | Uthmeier | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 836 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 | R+4.4 |
| Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 854 LV | 40 | 50 | R+10 | R+8.3 |
| Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank | Sep 28–Oct 4 | 1,163 RV | 37 | 46 | R+9 | R+8.3 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 913 LV | 42 | 43 | R+1 | R+2.9 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsored | Sep 7–Sep 9 | 1,107 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | R+5.5 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsored | May 13–May 16 | 1,593 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 | R+0.7 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsored | May 13–May 16 | 2,070 RV | 40 | 41 | R+1 | R+0.7 |
| MDW for Edge CommunicationsD-sponsored | Mar 27–Apr 3 | 1,834 LV | 43 | 40 | D+3 | D+0.1 |
| University of North Florida | Oct 15–Oct 25 | 728 LV | 36 | 45 | R+9 | |
| University of North Florida | Oct 15–Oct 25 | 728 LV | 35 | 41 | R+6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 7, 2026.
The state
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,416,077
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 27%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
10,793,163 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%
2022
7,677,223 votes · R+21.2✓ Ashley Moody (R)60.6%
Aramis Ayala (D)39.4%
2020 President Vote in this state
10,965,776 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Joe Biden (D)48.3%
2018
8,122,746 votes · R+6.1✓ Ashley Moody (R)52.1%
Sean Shaw (D)46.1%
Jeffrey Marc Siskind (OTH)1.8%
2016 President Vote in this state
9,122,861 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%