Two representatives per district
Each legislative district elects one senator and two House members. Voters may pick up to two House candidates and the top two finishers win, so a district can split between the parties.
Arizona · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Arizona House of Representatives?
All 60 seats are on the ballot. 31 seats make a majority. 40 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are favored to control the Arizona House of Representatives (70%), which would flip it from Republican control.
Democrats
70%
chance of control
Republicans
30%
- Avg. D seats
- 32.580% range 28–37
- Avg. R seats
- 27.580% range 23–32
- Now
- 27 D · 33 R60 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (40+ seats): 3%
27 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party33 R now
Democrats are favored to control the Arizona House of Representatives (73%), which would flip it from Republican control.
Democrats
73%
chance of control
Republicans
27%
- Avg. D seats
- 33.180% range 28–38
- Avg. R seats
- 26.980% range 22–32
- Now
- 27 D · 33 R60 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (40+ seats): 6%
27 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party33 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 30 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Arizona
Phoenix
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
LD-4Karen GreshamMatt GressFlip riskD flip2 seats53%Rep.63%Dem. LD-13Racquel ArmstrongJanet WeningerD flipD flip2 seats64%Dem.76%Dem. LD-16Julia GusseChris LopezFlip risk2 seats69%Rep.56%Rep. LD-17Kevin VolkRachel KeshelFlip risk2 seats70%Dem.57%Dem. LD-27Deborah HowardLisa Fink2 seats74%Rep.65%Rep.
Most likely to flip
LD-13Racquel ArmstrongJanet WeningerD flipD flip2 seats64%to flip76%to flip LD-4Karen GreshamMatt GressFlip riskD flip2 seats47%to flip63%to flip LD-16Julia GusseChris LopezFlip risk2 seats31%to flip44%to flip LD-17Kevin VolkRachel KeshelFlip risk2 seats30%to flip43%to flip LD-27Deborah HowardLisa Fink2 seats26%to flip35%to flip LD-2Stephanie SimacekJustin WilmethFlip risk2 seats20%to flip40%to flip LD-23Mariana SandovalMichele Peña2 seats6%to flip14%to flip LD-29Christine SciannaSteve Montenegro2 seats6%to flip15%to flip LD-9Lorena AustinBradley Bettencourt2 seats4%to flip13%to flip LD-10Helen HunterJustin Olson2 seats3%to flip7%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
30 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.
30 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LD-12 seats | ● Sandy Zalecki● Selina BlissINCAlso: Quang Nguyen (R) | R+25.0R+27.1 | R+32 | — | ||
| LD-2Flip risk2 seats | ● Stephanie SimacekINC● Justin WilmethAlso: Paul Carver (R) | D+6.3D+2.3 | R+5 | — | ||
| LD-32 seats | ● Julie Gable● Cody ReimINCAlso: George Khalaf (R), Rick Spargo (D), John Skirbst (NL) | R+17.6R+18.7 | R+24 | — | ||
| LD-4Flip riskD flip2 seats | ● Karen Gresham● Matt GressINCAlso: Pamela Carter (R), Tammy Caputi (D) | R+0.6D+3.1 | R+3 | — | ||
| LD-5D vs D2 seats | ● Sarah LiguoriINC● No RepublicanAlso: Aaron Márquez (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+38 | — | |
| LD-6D vs D2 seats | ● Mae PeshlakaiINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ian Teller (D), Brendan Trachsel (G) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+28 | — | |
| LD-72 seats | ● Samuel Martin● Walter BlackmanINCAlso: David Cook Sr. (R), Richard Grayson (G) | R+24.2R+25.1 | R+30 | — | ||
| LD-82 seats | ● Brian GarciaINC● Donald HawkerAlso: Janeen Connolly (D) | D+29.7D+29.0 | D+22 | — | ||
| LD-92 seats | ● Lorena AustinINC● Bradley BettencourtAlso: Jacob Martinez (D) | D+14.0D+11.1 | D+4 | — | ||
| LD-102 seats | ● Helen Hunter● Justin OlsonINCAlso: James Rogers (R), Brian Calaway (D), David Scott (NL) | R+13.9R+14.5 | R+21 | — | ||
| LD-112 seats | ● Oscar De Los SantosINC● Joseph Charles DaileyAlso: Cesar Aleman (R), Junelle Cavero (D) | D+46.0D+48.9 | D+44 | — | ||
| LD-122 seats | ● Stacey TraversINC● David RichardsonAlso: Armando Montero (D) | D+23.0D+23.4 | D+17 | — | ||
| LD-13D flipD flip2 seats | ● Racquel Armstrong● Janet WeningerINCAlso: Kevin Hartke (R), Jacob Weinberg (D) | D+2.6D+6.5 | Even | — | ||
| LD-142 seats | ● Mary Rose● Laurin HendrixINCAlso: Tyler Farnsworth (R) | R+16.4R+11.2 | R+18 | — | ||
| LD-15R vs R2 seats | ● No Democrat● Neal CarterINCAlso: Michael Way (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+30 | — | |
| LD-16Flip risk2 seats | ● Julia Gusse● Chris LopezINCAlso: Teresa Martinez (R) | R+3.5R+1.4 | R+8 | — | ||
| LD-17Flip risk2 seats | ● Kevin VolkINC● Rachel KeshelAlso: John Winchester (R), Hollace Lyon (D) | D+3.7D+1.6 | R+4 | — | ||
| LD-182 seats | ● Nancy GutierrezINC● Bob DohseAlso: Chris Mathis (D) | D+30.2D+30.1 | D+24 | — | ||
| LD-192 seats | ● Jackie Anderson● Lupe DiazINCAlso: David Gowan (R), Aiden Swallow (D) | R+18.3R+18.3 | R+24 | — | ||
| LD-202 seats | ● Betty VillegasINC● Katherine WeaselAlso: Sally Ann Gonzales (D) | D+48.9D+51.4 | D+46 | — | ||
| LD-212 seats | ● Consuelo HernandezINC● Christopher KibbeyAlso: Miranda Lopez (D) | D+30.5D+27.2 | D+21 | — | ||
| LD-222 seats | ● Elda Luna-NájeraINC● Blaine Griffin Sr.Also: Betsy Munoz (D) | D+31.7D+30.5 | D+25 | — | ||
| LD-232 seats | ● Mariana SandovalINC● Michele PeñaAlso: Gary Snyder (R), Emilia Cortez (D) | D+12.1D+10.7 | D+5 | — | ||
| LD-242 seats | ● Alberto Flores● Delores McLaughlinAlso: Lisbeth Arescurenaga (D) | D+33.6D+29.2 | D+24 | — | ||
| LD-252 seats | ● Tiffany Byrne● Michael CarboneINCAlso: Nick Kupper (R) | R+20.0R+21.3 | R+28 | — | ||
| LD-262 seats | ● Cesar AguilarINC● Frank RobertsAlso: Jonathan McKenna (R), Quantá Crews (D), Hector Gomez (G) | D+36.1D+37.1 | D+32 | — | ||
| LD-272 seats | ● Deborah Howard● Lisa FinkINCAlso: Tony Rivero (R) | R+4.6R+3.4 | R+11 | — | ||
| LD-282 seats | ● Barbara Fike● Beverly PingerelliINCAlso: David Livingston (R), Marc Graham (D) | R+15.7R+17.6 | R+23 | — | ||
| LD-292 seats | ● Christine Scianna● Steve MontenegroINCAlso: James Taylor (R) | R+11.7R+10.0 | R+17 | — | ||
| LD-302 seats | ● Brian McMahan● Mike GannuscioAlso: David Rose (R) | R+43.6R+50.3 | R+55 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.