Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Georgia
Ossoff is very likely to win: Ossoff wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ossoff wins Nov 3
96%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Collins wins Nov 3
3%
Including the runoff: Ossoff 96% · Collins 4% to win the seat. In a runoff, Ossoff wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+10.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 21in our database
Ossoff is clearly favored to win: Ossoff wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ossoff wins Nov 3
92%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Collins wins Nov 3
6%
Including the runoff: Ossoff 93% · Collins 7% to win the seat. In a runoff, Collins wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+9.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 21in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jon Ossoff
Incumbent U.S. senator (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $77.3M
- From individuals
- $67.8M
- Spent
- $39.7M
- Cash on hand
- $42.6M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Mike Collins
U.S. representative from GA-10 (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $10.2M
- From individuals
- $6.7M
- Spent
- $9.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.77 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 21 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ossoff | Collins | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Oct 7–Oct 9 | 1,101 LV | 51 | 43 | D+8 | D+10.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Oct 2–Oct 3 | 600 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 | D+9.7 |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 | D+9.9 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 721 RV | 51 | 40 | D+11 | D+14.7 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 678 LV | 52 | 41 | D+11 | D+14.7 |
| Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 678 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 | D+14.7 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,416 RV | 51 | 41 | D+10 | D+9.6 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,301 LV | 52 | 42 | D+10 | D+9.6 |
| YouGov | Sep 15–Sep 18 | 3,071 LV | 51 | 43 | D+8 | D+9.6 |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 645 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 645 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | |
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 14 | 1,019 LV | 51 | 42 | D+9 | D+10.7 |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,091 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 | |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Aug 16–Aug 17 | 800 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 1,060 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | |
| Wick | Jun 27–Jun 30 | 1,175 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Jun 23–Jun 27 | 1,002 RV | 56 | 43 | D+13 | |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoiceR-sponsored | Apr 3–Apr 9 | 407 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media | Feb 28–Mar 2 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 12 | 624 RV | 38 | 38 | Even | |
| TIPP Insights for League of American Workers | Jul 28–Aug 1 | 2,956 RV | 45 | 44 | D+1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,940,407
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 31%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,211,134 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2021 runoff
4,483,241 votes · D+1.2✓ Jon Ossoff (D)50.6%
David A. Perdue (R)49.4%
2020
4,952,175 votes · R+1.8✓ David A. Perdue (R)49.7%
Jon Ossoff (D)47.9%
Shane Hazel (L)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,935,487 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,967,067 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%
2014
2,567,761 votes · R+7.8✓ David A. Perdue (R)52.9%
M. Michelle Nunn (D)45.2%
Amanda C. Swafford (L)1.9%
2008 runoff
3,752,413 votes · R+3.0✓ Saxby Chambliss (R)49.8%
Jim Martin (D)46.8%
Allen Buckley (L)3.4%
2008
2,137,956 votes · R+14.9✓ Saxby Chambliss (R)57.4%
Jim Martin (D)42.6%
2002
2,031,604 votes · R+6.9✓ Saxby Chambliss (R)52.7%
Max Cleland (D)45.9%
Claude "sandy" Thomas (L)1.4%