Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 77%no change
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (−0.1 D since Sep 20)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.D 70%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.1 D since Sep 20)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 21
Monday, September 21, 2026
- Calls changed
- 45
- Party changes
- 9
- New polls
- 44
- Compared with
- Sep 20
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 20. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 95%no change
Expected seats 235.7 D · 199.3 R (0 D since Sep 20)
D 95%, 95% Democratic.D 89%▼ R +1
Expected seats 235.2 D · 199.8 R (−0.8 D since Sep 20)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 75%▲ D +2
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (+0.2 D since Sep 20)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Sep 20)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8D +0.2
Forecast environment
D+8.8no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 20 → now.
Governor races
- Vermont GovernorLikely R → Toss-up
- Florida GovernorToss-up → Lean R
- New Hampshire GovernorSolid R → Likely R
State legislative chambers
- Michigan House of RepresentativesLikely D → Lean D
Trifectas
Every call change
45 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 20 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 3 changes
- Vermont GovernorLikely R → Toss-up
- Florida GovernorToss-up → Lean R
- New Hampshire GovernorSolid R → Likely R
Statewide offices 1 change
- Florida TreasurerLean R → Likely R
State legislatures 39 changes in 12 chambers
Connecticut State Senate · 1 change
- SD-7Lean D → Likely D
Florida House of Representatives · 7 changes
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-81Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine State Senate · 1 change
- SD-18Likely R → Lean R
Massachusetts House of Representatives · 5 changes
- 9th EssexLean D → Toss-up
- 5th BristolToss-up → Lean R
- 4th HampdenToss-up → Lean R
- 5th PlymouthToss-up → Lean R
- 20th MiddlesexLikely D → Lean D
Massachusetts State Senate · 1 change
- Worcester and HampshireNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 15 changes
- Sullivan 7Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- State House District Sullivan 06Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- State House District Strafford 07Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- State House District Strafford 04Toss-up → Lean D
- Sullivan 8Toss-up → Lean D
- State House District Sullivan 05Toss-up → Lean D
- State House District Strafford 06Lean R → Toss-up
- Merrimack 26Lean D → Likely D
- Merrimack 27Lean D → Likely D
- Merrimack 25Lean D → Likely D
- State House District Merrimack 10Likely R → Lean R
- State House District Strafford 08Lean R → Toss-up
- Hillsborough 41Lean D → Likely D
- Hillsborough 38Lean D → Likely D
- State House District Hillsborough 15Lean D → Likely D
New Hampshire State Senate · 3 changes
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-15Likely D → Lean D
Rhode Island State Senate · 1 change
- SD-34Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Vermont House of Representatives · 1 change
- Orange-1 State HouseNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
44 polls new since Sep 20, in 26 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 32 more
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 20.