Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 68%▼ R +1
Expected seats 51.7 D · 48.3 R (0 D since Sep 2)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 59%no change
Expected seats 51.1 D · 48.9 R (0 D since Sep 2)
D 59%, 59% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 3
Thursday, September 3, 2026
- Calls changed
- 11
- Party changes
- 5
- New polls
- 12
- Compared with
- Sep 2
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 2. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 90%no change
Expected seats 231.7 D · 203.3 R (+0.1 D since Sep 2)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.D 83%▲ D +1
Expected seats 231.6 D · 203.4 R (+0.3 D since Sep 2)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 64%no change
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (0 D since Sep 2)
D 64%, 64% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Sep 2)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.2no change
Forecast environment
D+7.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 2.
Every call change
11 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 2 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Statewide offices 1 change
- Indiana Secretary of StateLikely R → Lean R
State legislatures 8 changes in 6 chambers
Indiana State Senate · 1 change
- SD-11Likely R → Lean R
Missouri House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-89Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 2 changes
- State House District Strafford 07Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- Sullivan 7Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Oklahoma House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-83Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
West Virginia House of Delegates · 1 change
- HD-24Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
12 polls new since Sep 2, in 10 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 44 · R 46 | R+2 | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | East Carolina University | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 675 LV | D 46 · R 39 | D+7 | surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | East Carolina University | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 675 LV | D 52 · R 44 | D+8 | surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 47 · R 43 | D+4 | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| Michigan Attorney General | Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 36 · R 35 | D+1 | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| Indiana Secretary of State | Schoen Cooperman Research for an insider in the Bayh campaignD sponsor | Sep 1–Sep 3 | 605 LV | D 42 · R 36 | D+6 | indianacapitalchronicle.com ↗ |
| Michigan Secretary of State | Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 42 · R 36 | D+6 | detroitnews.com ↗ |
| North Carolina's 9th District | Lake Research Partners for Ojeda's campaignD sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 400 LV | D 42 · R 46 | R+4 | nationaljournal.com ↗ |
| Nebraska's 1st District | Global Strategy Group for Fight for Nebraska PACD sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 43 · R 42 | D+1 | s3.documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Nebraska's 1st District | Global Strategy Group for Fight for Nebraska PACD sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | D 49 · R 45 | D+4 | s3.documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Nevada's 2nd District | GBAO for the Nevada Alliance, which supports Benitez-ThompsonD sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 500 LV | D 38 · R 37 | D+1 | thenevadaindependent.com ↗ |
| Tennessee's 9th District | Hart Research Associates for Tennessee Rise PAC & Three Star PACD sponsor | Sep 1–Sep 3 | 400 LV | D 44 · R 48 | R+4 | x.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 2.