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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Alaska › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Alaska Governor

RCVTop four

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).

Kreiss-Tomkins is favored to win: Kreiss-Tomkins wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
76%
chance of winning
Bronson (R)
24%
Average margin
D+4.4
80% of outcomes
R+4 to D+13
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
10in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).

Kreiss-Tomkins is favored to win: Kreiss-Tomkins wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
75%
chance of winning
Bronson (R)
25%
Average margin
D+4.5
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+14
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
10in our database

Range of outcomes

D+4.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+4.5R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How this race is decided

Top-four primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.

Ranked-choice voting

Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kreiss-Tomkins 76%Bronson 24%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Kreiss-Tomkins 75%Bronson 25%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Alaska state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+4.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+4.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Alaska and look-alikeplacesR+2.2Polling average5 polls, latest Oct 3D+6.2Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+4.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+4.5

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-16.24
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+20EvenD+20Avg. D+6.2Sep 11Nov 3
All 10 polls
PollsterDatesSampleKreiss-TomkinsBronsonMarginAdjusted
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1–Oct 31,512 LV4815D+33D+7.0
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1–Oct 31,512 LV5446D+8D+7.0
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LV4617D+29D+4.4
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LV5248D+4D+4.4
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LV4014D+26D+4.4
CygnalR-sponsoredSep 24–Sep 27502 LV448D+36D+4.9
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 17799 LV4317D+26D+4.3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV4918D+31D+9.9
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV5545D+10D+9.9
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV4014D+26D+9.9

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 3, 2026.

The state

Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+16.8R+19.0 vs. nation2020 presidentR+10.5R+15.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.7R+12.2 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
735,706
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
39%of adults
  • White 58%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 26%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

324,484 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Kamala Harris (D)43.2%

2022

263,752 votes · R+35.0
✓ Michael Dunleavy (R)50.3%
Les Gara (D)24.2%
Bill Walker (NPA)20.7%
Charlie Pierce (R)4.5%

2020 President Vote in this state

343,729 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Joe Biden (D)44.7%

2018

283,134 votes · R+7.3
✓ Mike Dunleavy (R)51.4%
Mark Begich (D)44.4%
Bill Walker (OTH)2.0%
William Toien (L)1.9%

2016 President Vote in this state

279,841 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%

2014

279,065 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Bill Walker (I)48.3%
Sean Parnell (R)46.0%
Carolyn Clift (L)3.2%
J. R. Myers (CST)2.5%

2010

255,294 votes · R+22.1
✓ Sean Parnell (R)59.3%
Ethan Berkowitz (D)37.8%
Don Wright (I)1.9%
Billy Toien (L)1.1%

2006

236,938 votes · R+8.2
✓ Sarah Palin (R)48.4%
Tony Knowles (D)41.0%
Andrew Halcro (I)9.5%
Don Wright (I)0.5%

2002

231,221 votes · R+15.7
✓ Frank Murkowski (R)55.9%
Fran Ulmer (D)40.7%
Diane E. Benson (G)1.3%
Don Wright (I)0.9%
Raymond VinZant (R)0.7%

Also on the ballot in Alaska

U.S. SenateMary PeltolaDan S. SullivanFlip riskFlip risk54%Dem.56%Dem.