Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
11 of 21 seats on the ballot; 10 holdovers (6 D, 4 R) serve until a later election.
Nevada · 2026 forecast · Southwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada in 2026
Nevada elects a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 4 members of the U.S. House, 11 of 21 members of the State Senate and all 42 members of the State Assembly on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 5 statewide offices · 4 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- Governor
- R 58%D 55%Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo + 1 more
- U.S. House
- 3.0 D · 1.0 R2.7 D · 1.3 RExpected seats of 4
- Nevada State Senate
- D >99%D 95%Chance of control · 11 of 21 seats up
- Nevada State Assembly
- D 99%D 94%Chance of control · 42 of 42 seats up
- Lieutenant Governor
- D 62%D 74%Sandra Jauregui vs. Stavros Anthony
- Attorney General
- D 91%D 85%Nicole Cannizzaro vs. Adriana Guzmán Fralick
- Secretary of State
- D 95%D 84%Cisco Aguilar vs. Jim Marchant
- Treasurer
- D 80%D 69%Tya Mathis-Coleman vs. Drew Johnson
- Auditor
- D 52%D 74%Michael MacDougall vs. Andy Matthews
U.S. House districts · Nevada
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 42%
- Divided
- 58%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (58%); 42% chance one party wins a trifecta.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 53%
- Divided
- 47%
- Rep. trifecta
- 1%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (53%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Lieutenant GovernorD flipD flip
● Sandra Jauregui● Stavros AnthonyINC
Attorney General
● Nicole Cannizzaro● Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Secretary of State
● Cisco AguilarINC● Jim Marchant
Treasurer
● Tya Mathis-Coleman● Drew Johnson
AuditorFlip riskD flip
● Michael MacDougall● Andy MatthewsINC
Ratings
Solid D1
Likely D1
Toss-up2
Likely D2
Toss-up1
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
The Nevada environment
The environment Nevada's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Nevada state offices vs. the nation
- +0.1± 3.7 (80% range) · 5 polled state races
- Nevada state-office environment
- D+9.60.1 pts more Democratic than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Nevada environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
4 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
Las Vegas
4 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-1 | ● Dina TitusINC● Carrie Buck | D+12.4D+10.4 | D+4 | — | ||
| NV-2 | ● Teresa Benitez-Thompson● David FlippoAlso: Lynn Chapman (IAP) | R+6.4R+5.7 | R+14 | 3 | ||
| NV-3 | ● Susie LeeINC● Martin O'Donnell | D+13.1D+7.4 | D+1 | — | ||
| NV-4 | ● Steven HorsfordINC● Cody Whipple | D+13.1D+10.0 | D+4 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Nevada Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Nevada State Senate
Dem.
>99%
Rep.
<1%
Avg. 13 D – 8 R seats · 11 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 3%
Dem.
95%
Rep.
5%
Avg. 12 D – 9 R seats · 11 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 5%
11 of 21 seats up; 10 holdovers. 3 races without a candidate list yet.
Full forecastNevada State Senate ratings
No seat is projected to change parties.
No seat is projected to change parties.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger. Every race.
Nevada State Assembly
Dem.
99%
Rep.
1%
Avg. 28 D – 14 R seats · 22 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 55%
Dem.
94%
Rep.
6%
Avg. 27 D – 15 R seats · 22 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 45%
8 races without a candidate list yet.
Full forecastNevada State Assembly ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger. Every race.
Closest legislative races
AD-35Joe SpicaRebecca EdgeworthFlip riskD flip54%Dem.64%Dem. AD-2Kamilah BywatersDrew TeitelbaumD flipFlip risk66%Dem.52%Dem. AD-26——Flip riskTBD69%Rep.58%Rep. AD-4Eileen EadyLisa Cole70%Rep.60%Rep. AD-13Daniel AndrewsBrian Hibbetts75%Rep.64%Rep. AD-41Spencer L. RidenourTofuola "Tofu" Alofipo87%Dem.73%Dem.
How Nevada votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.