Democratic
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
Nurse
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $107K
- From individuals
- $106.3K
- Spent
- $80.7K
- Cash on hand
- $27.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Oklahoma › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Oklahoma
Hern is very likely to win: Hern wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thomas (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hern (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Hern is very likely to win: Hern wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Thomas (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Hern (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Kevin Hern
U.S. representative for OK-1 (2018–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $10.8M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $8M
- Cash on hand
- $2.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 14.39 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Thomas | Hern | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 500 RV | 25 | 49 | R+24 | R+31.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 6, 2026.
The state
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,028,634
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 16%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,535,812 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022
1,150,481 votes · R+27.4✓ Markwayne Mullin (R)61.8%
Kendra Horn (D)35.2%
Robert Murphy (L)1.5%
Ray Woods (I)1.5%
2020
1,556,361 votes · R+31.5✓ Jim Inhofe (R)62.9%
Abby Broyles (D)32.8%
Robert Murphy (L)2.2%
Joan Farr (I)1.4%
A. D. Nesbit (I)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,524,170 two-party votes · R+33.9 · R+38.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.9%
Joe Biden (D)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,369,511 two-party votes · R+38.6 · R+40.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.7%
2014
820,733 votes · R+40.9✓ James M. Inhofe (R)68.0%
Matt Silverstein (D)28.5%
Joan Farr (I)1.3%
Ray Woods (I)1.2%
Aaron Delozier (I)0.9%
2008
1,346,819 votes · R+18.3✓ James M. Inhofe (R)56.7%
Andrew Rice (D)39.2%
Stephen P. Wallace (I)4.1%
2002
1,018,424 votes · R+22.4✓ James M. Inhofe (R)57.3%
David Walters (D)36.3%
James Germalic (I)6.4%