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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Pennsylvania › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Pennsylvania Governor

Shapiro is very likely to win: Shapiro wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Shapiro (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Garrity (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+24.9
80% of outcomes
D+17 to D+33
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
21in our database

Shapiro is very likely to win: Shapiro wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Shapiro (D)
99%
chance of winning
Garrity (R)
1%
Average margin
D+22.3
80% of outcomes
D+12 to D+34
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
21in our database

Range of outcomes

D+24.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+22.3R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Shapiro >99%Garrity <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Shapiro 99%Garrity 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Pennsylvania state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+8.3Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+17.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Pennsylvania andlook-alike placesD+17.3Polling average19 polls, latest Oct 5D+25.7Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+24.9Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+22.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent1
Seat's last result vs. expectation21.03
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation21.03

Polls

R+20EvenD+20Avg. D+25.7Sep 28Nov 3
All 21 polls
PollsterDatesSampleShapiroGarrityMarginAdjusted
Quinnipiac UniversityOct 1–Oct 51,159 LV5934D+25D+27.3
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredSep 28–Oct 1630 LV5334D+19D+17.3
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 30700 LV5231D+21D+26.9
PennLive for the Bravo GroupSep 16–Sep 22624 RV5528D+27D+28.3
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22615 LV5838D+20D+22.6
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena UniversitySep 15–Sep 22615 RV5738D+19D+22.6
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAug 17–Aug 23501 RV5025D+25
PennLive for the Bravo GroupAug 18–Aug 22711 RV5625D+31
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena UniversityAug 17–Aug 21760 LV5539D+16D+19.8
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena UniversityAug 17–Aug 21760 RV5437D+17D+19.8
National Public AffairsR-sponsoredJul 26–Jul 30600 LV5043D+7
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 9–Jul 13895 RV5340D+13
PennLive for the Bravo GroupJun 18–Jun 25644 RV5429D+25
Franklin & Marshall CollegeJun 8–Jun 14546 RV5028D+22
MAD Global Strategy for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy FutureJun 9–Jun 11600 LV4831D+17
PennLive for the Bravo GroupMay 20–May 24683 LV5329D+24
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR-sponsoredMar 18–Mar 29700 LV5836D+22
Franklin & Marshall CollegeFeb 18–Mar 1834 RV4828D+20
Quinnipiac UniversityFeb 19–Feb 23836 RV5537D+18
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 25–Sep 291,579 RV5539D+16
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 28700 LV5436D+18

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.

The state

Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+0.8R+3.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+1.2R+3.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+1.7R+0.2 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
13,018,639
Adults with a B.A.+
35%
White, no degree
49%of adults
  • White 73%
  • Hispanic 9%
  • Black 10%
  • Asian 4%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

6,966,350 two-party votes · R+1.7 · R+0.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Kamala Harris (D)49.1%

2022

5,365,929 votes · D+15.0
✓ Joshua D Shapiro (D)56.5%
Douglas V Mastriano (R)41.7%
Jonathan Matthew Hackenburg (L)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

6,835,903 two-party votes · D+1.2 · R+3.4 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%

2018

5,013,046 votes · D+17.3
✓ Thomas W Wolf (D)57.8%
Scott R Wagner (R)40.7%
Kenneth V Krawchuk (L)1.0%
Paul Glover (OTH)0.6%

2016 President Vote in this state

5,897,174 two-party votes · R+0.8 · R+3.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.6%

2014

3,495,866 votes · D+9.9
✓ Thomas W. Wolf (D)54.9%
Tom Corbett (R)45.1%

2010

3,987,551 votes · R+9.0
✓ Tom Corbett (R)54.5%
Dan Onorato (D)45.5%

2006

4,092,652 votes · D+20.7
✓ Edward G. Rendell (D)60.4%
Lynn Swann (R)39.6%

2002

3,502,643 votes · D+9.2
✓ Edward G. Rendell (D)54.6%
Mike Fisher (R)45.4%