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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Ohio › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Ohio Governor

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).

Acton is favored to win: Acton wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.

Acton (D)
73%
chance of winning
Ramaswamy (R)
27%
Average margin
D+3.6
80% of outcomes
R+4 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
29in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).

Acton is favored to win: Acton wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.

Acton (D)
72%
chance of winning
Ramaswamy (R)
28%
Average margin
D+3.7
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+12
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
29in our database

Range of outcomes

D+3.6R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+3.7R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Acton 73%Ramaswamy 27%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Acton 72%Ramaswamy 28%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Ohio state offices
+0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+1.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+1.8Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Ohio and look-alikeplacesR+1.3Polling average26 polls, latest Oct 9D+4.5Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+3.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+3.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-10.16
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+4.5Jul 28Nov 3
All 29 polls
PollsterDatesSampleActonRamaswamyMarginAdjusted
Bowling Green State University/YouGovSep 29–Oct 91,000 LV5044D+6D+6.7
co/efficientR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 6925 LV4345R+2D+1.7
SSRS for CNNSep 29–Oct 5760 LV5042D+8D+7.4
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1616 LV4945D+4
YouGovSep 18–Sep 303,780 LV4844D+4D+3.0
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27680 LV4748R+1
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27680 LV4446R+2
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27735 RV4647R+1
Big Data PollR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27735 RV4345R+2
Marist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,298 RV5044D+6D+3.2
Suffolk University for USA TodaySep 23–Sep 27500 LV5041D+9D+8.1
Bowling Green State University/YouGovSep 1–Sep 101,000 LV4845D+3
Wedgewood PollsAug 11–Aug 13800 LV4746D+1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAug 6–Aug 101,008 RV4850R+2
Tulchin Research for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney GeneralD-sponsoredJul 29–Aug 4600 LV4644D+2
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 28601 LV4747Even
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPJun 14–Jun 16800 LV4744D+3
Tulchin Research for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney GeneralD-sponsoredJun 2–Jun 4600 LV4744D+3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsMay 28–Jun 11,015 RV5049D+1
Bowling Green State University/YouGovApr 7–Apr 141,000 RV4748R+1
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceR-sponsoredApr 3–Apr 9413 LV4449R+5
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredMar 13–Mar 14809 LV4645D+1
EMC Research for Ohio Environmental Council, an environmental organizationD-sponsoredFeb 10–Feb 221,343 LV5343D+10
Emerson CollegeDec 6–Dec 8850 RV4645D+1
Data Targeting for TR-sponsoredDec 3–Dec 8603 LV4345R+2
Bowling Green State University/YouGovOct 2–Oct 14800 RV4750R+3
Hart Research for the Ohio Federation of TeachersD-sponsoredSep 19–Sep 22800 LV4645D+1
Emerson CollegeAug 18–Aug 191,000 RV3949R+10
Impact Research for Acton's campaignD-sponsoredJul 24–Jul 28800 LV4647R+1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.

The state

Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+8.5R+10.8 vs. nation2020 presidentR+8.2R+12.7 vs. nation2024 presidentR+11.3R+9.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
11,810,293
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
53%of adults
  • White 76%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 12%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

5,713,815 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+9.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%

2022

4,134,877 votes · R+25.1
✓ Mike Dewine (R)62.4%
Nan Whaley (D)37.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

5,833,999 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%

2018

4,435,462 votes · R+3.9
✓ Mike Dewine And Jon Husted (R)50.4%
Richard Cordray And Betty Sutton (D)46.7%
Travis M Irvine And J Todd Grayson (L)1.8%
Constance Gadell-Newton And Brett R Joseph (OTH)1.1%

2016 President Vote in this state

5,235,169 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+10.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%

2014

2,954,207 votes · R+31.7
✓ John R. Kasich (R)65.8%
Ed FitzGerald (D)34.2%

2010

3,701,245 votes · R+2.1
✓ John R. Kasich (R)51.0%
Ted Strickland (D)49.0%

2006

3,909,669 votes · D+24.6
✓ Ted Strickland (D)62.3%
J. Kenneth Blackwell (R)37.7%

2002

3,101,931 votes · R+20.2
✓ Robert Alphonso Taft (R)60.1%
Timothy Hagan (D)39.9%

Also on the ballot in Ohio

U.S. Senate (special)Sherrod BrownJon HustedD flipD flip75%Dem.69%Dem.