99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Ohio › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Special election

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).

Brown is favored to win: Brown wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

Brown (D)
75%
chance of winning
Husted (R)
25%
Average margin
D+3.5
80% of outcomes
R+4 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
37in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (69%).

Brown is favored to win: Brown wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Brown (D)
69%
chance of winning
Husted (R)
31%
Average margin
D+3.0
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
37in our database

Range of outcomes

D+3.5R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+3.0R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Brown 75%Husted 25%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Brown 69%Husted 31%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Sherrod Brown

Former U.S. senator (2007–2025)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$38.6M
From individuals
$31.1M
Spent
$22.3M
Cash on hand
$16.2M

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

RepublicanAppointed incumbent

Jon Husted

Incumbent U.S. senator (2025–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$19.2M
From individuals
$9.3M
Spent
$10.3M
Cash on hand
$8.9M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+1.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+1.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Ohio and look-alikeplacesD+1.8Polling average31 polls, latest Oct 9D+4.1Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+3.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+3.0

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation8.81
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+4.1Aug 19Nov 3
All 37 polls
PollsterDatesSampleBrownHustedMarginAdjusted
Bowling Green State University/YouGovSep 29–Oct 91,000 LV4842D+6D+7.0
co/efficientR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 6925 LV4546R+1D+2.8
co/efficientR-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 6925 LV4344R+1D+2.8
SSRS for CNNSep 29–Oct 5760 LV4943D+6D+5.2
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1616 LV4946D+3
YouGovSep 18–Sep 303,780 LV4945D+4D+2.9
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 291,200 LV4443D+1D+2.1
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27680 LV4643D+3
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27680 LV4641D+5
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27735 RV4541D+4
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR-sponsoredSep 26–Sep 27735 RV4440D+4
Marist UniversitySep 24–Sep 271,298 RV5143D+8
Suffolk University for USA TodaySep 23–Sep 27500 LV4744D+3D+1.5
Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 231,115 LV4643D+3
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 23695 LV4747Even
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 23695 LV4645D+1
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 161,085 LV4542D+3
Bowling Green State University/YouGovSep 1–Sep 101,000 LV4845D+3
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 8–Sep 91,200 LV4742D+5
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28306 LV5246D+6
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28500 RV5343D+10
Wedgewood PollsAug 11–Aug 13800 LV4844D+4
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAug 6–Aug 101,008 RV5345D+8
Tulchin Research for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney GeneralD-sponsoredJul 29–Aug 4600 LV4743D+4
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 28601 LV4750R+3
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPJun 14–Jun 16800 LV4845D+3
Tulchin Research for John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney GeneralD-sponsoredJun 2–Jun 4600 LV4642D+4
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsMay 28–Jun 11,015 RV5345D+8
Bowling Green State University/YouGovApr 7–Apr 141,000 RV4750R+3
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceR-sponsoredApr 3–Apr 9413 LV4551R+6
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredMar 13–Mar 14784 LV4446R+2
OnMessage Public Strategies for the Insurance Watchdog CoalitionR-sponsoredMar 3–Mar 8600 LV4745D+2
EMC Research for Ohio Environmental Council, an environmental organizationD-sponsoredFeb 10–Feb 221,343 LV5147D+4
Emerson CollegeDec 6–Dec 8850 RV4649R+3
Bowling Green State University/YouGovOct 2–Oct 14800 RV4948D+1
Hart Research for the Ohio Federation of Teachers, which supports BrownD-sponsoredSep 19–Sep 22800 LV4845D+3
Emerson CollegeAug 18–Aug 191,000 RV4450R+6

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.

The state

Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+8.5R+10.8 vs. nation2020 presidentR+8.2R+12.7 vs. nation2024 presidentR+11.3R+9.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
11,810,293
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
53%of adults
  • White 76%
  • Hispanic 5%
  • Black 12%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

5,713,815 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+9.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Kamala Harris (D)44.3%

2022

4,133,342 votes · R+6.1
✓ Jd Vance (R)53.0%
Tim Ryan (D)46.9%

2020 President Vote in this state

5,833,999 two-party votes · R+8.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Joe Biden (D)45.9%

2016

5,374,164 votes · R+21.9
✓ Rob Portman (R)58.0%
Ted Strickland (D)37.2%
Tom Connors (I)1.7%
Joseph R. Demare (G)1.6%
Scott Rupert (I)1.4%

2016 President Vote in this state

5,235,169 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+10.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.7%

2010

3,814,450 votes · R+18.1
✓ Rob Portman (R)56.9%
Lee Fisher (D)39.4%
Eric W. Deaton (CST)1.7%
Michael L. Pryce (I)1.3%
Daniel H. Labotz (SOC)0.7%

2004

5,425,527 votes · R+27.7
✓ George V. Voinovich (R)63.9%
Eric D. Fingerhut (D)36.1%

1998

3,404,141 votes · R+12.9
✓ George V. Voinovich (R)56.5%
Mary O. Boyle (D)43.5%

Also on the ballot in Ohio

GovernorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyD flipD flip73%Dem.72%Dem.