Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; the odd-numbered districts are on the ballot in midterm years and the even-numbered ones in presidential years.
17 of 33 seats on the ballot; 16 holdovers (10 D, 6 R) serve until a later election.
Wisconsin · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin in 2026
Wisconsin elects a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, all 8 members of the U.S. House, 17 of 33 members of the State Senate and all 99 members of the State Assembly on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 3 statewide offices · 8 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- Governor
- D 72%D 71%David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany
- U.S. House
- 3.3 D · 4.7 R3.3 D · 4.7 RExpected seats of 8 · 2 toss-ups
- Wisconsin State Senate
- D 95%D 79%Chance of control · 17 of 33 seats up
- Wisconsin State Assembly
- D 79%D 61%Chance of control · 99 of 99 seats up
- Attorney General
- D 94%D 77%Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney
- Secretary of State
- D 87%D 77%JoCasta Zamarripa vs. Jay Schroeder
- Treasurer
- D 57%D 78%Yee Leng Xiong vs. John Leiber
U.S. House districts · Wisconsin
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 61%
- Divided
- 38%
- Rep. trifecta
- 2%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (61%).
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 44%
- Divided
- 49%
- Rep. trifecta
- 7%
Divided government most likely continues (49%); 51% chance one party wins a trifecta.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
● Josh KaulINC● Eric Toney
Secretary of State
● JoCasta Zamarripa● Jay Schroeder
TreasurerFlip riskD flip
● Yee Leng Xiong● John LeiberINC
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
The Wisconsin environment
The environment Wisconsin's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Wisconsin state offices vs. the nation
- −0.7± 4.0 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- Wisconsin state-office environment
- D+8.80.7 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Wisconsin environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
8 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
Milwaukee
8 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-1Flip riskFlip risk | ● Mitchell Berman● Bryan SteilINC | R+0.1R+0.4 | R+4 | 4 | ||
| WI-2 | ● Mark PocanINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+42 | — | |
| WI-3Flip riskFlip risk | ● Rebecca Cooke● Derrick Van OrdenINC | D+1.0Even | R+7 | 4 | ||
| WI-4 | ● Gwen MooreINC● Tim Rogers | D+61.0D+60.4 | D+53 | — | ||
| WI-5 | ● Andrew Beck● Scott FitzgeraldINC | R+15.5R+14.9 | R+23 | — | ||
| WI-6 | ● Brad Smith● Glenn GrothmanINCAlso: Michael Thurow (I) | R+12.3R+13.1 | R+17 | 1 | ||
| WI-7 | ● Fred Clark● Michael Alfonso | R+11.7R+15.7 | R+22 | — | ||
| WI-8 | ● Rick Crosson● Tony WiedINC | R+7.7R+8.9 | R+16 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Wisconsin Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Wisconsin State SenateProjected flipProjected flip
Dem.
95%
Rep.
5%
Avg. 18 D – 15 R seats · 17 for control
Dem.
79%
Rep.
21%
Avg. 17 D – 16 R seats · 17 for control
17 of 33 seats up; 16 holdovers.
Full forecastWisconsin State Senate ratings
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Wisconsin State AssemblyProjected flipProjected flip
Dem.
79%
Rep.
21%
Avg. 52 D – 47 R seats · 50 for control
Dem.
61%
Rep.
39%
Avg. 51 D – 48 R seats · 50 for control
Wisconsin State Assembly ratings
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
AD-82Rico ComanchoBryson ReyesFlip riskFlip risk51%Dem.60%Rep. AD-30Kevin KnokeShannon ZimmermanFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.52%Dem. AD-92Jeremiah FredricksonClint MosesFlip risk63%Rep.58%Rep. AD-85John KrollPatrick SnyderD flipD flip66%Dem.68%Dem. AD-22Dana GlassteinPaul Melotik71%Rep.70%Rep. AD-88Brandy TollefsonBen FranklinD flipD flip76%Dem.71%Dem.
How Wisconsin votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.