Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 77%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (0 D since Sep 21)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 21)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 22
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 30
- Compared with
- Sep 21
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 21. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 95%no change
Expected seats 235.8 D · 199.2 R (+0.1 D since Sep 21)
D 95%, 95% Democratic.D 90%▲ D +1
Expected seats 235.5 D · 199.5 R (+0.3 D since Sep 21)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 75%no change
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Sep 21)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 78%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Sep 21)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.9D +0.1
Forecast environment
D+8.9D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 21.
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 21 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 3 changes in 2 chambers
Massachusetts House of Representatives · 2 changes
- 9th EssexToss-up → Lean D
- 20th MiddlesexLean D → Likely D
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
30 polls new since Sep 21, in 15 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 18 more
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 21.