Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 69%no change
Expected seats 51.7 D · 48.3 R (0 D since Sep 3)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.D 59%no change
Expected seats 51.1 D · 48.9 R (0 D since Sep 3)
D 59%, 59% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 4
Friday, September 4, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 2
- New polls
- 5
- Compared with
- Sep 3
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 3. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 90%no change
Expected seats 231.8 D · 203.2 R (+0.1 D since Sep 3)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.D 83%no change
Expected seats 231.7 D · 203.3 R (+0.1 D since Sep 3)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 65%▲ D +1
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (0 D since Sep 3)
D 65%, 65% Democratic.D 70%▲ D +1
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Sep 3)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.2no change
Forecast environment
D+7.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 3.
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 3 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
5 polls new since Sep 3, in 5 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Univision/YouGov | Aug 27–Sep 4 | 1,000 RV | D 48 · R 43 | D+5 | univision.com ↗ |
| Arizona Governor | Arizona State University | Aug 18–Sep 4 | 1,300 RV | D 47 · R 34 | D+13 | dropbox.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Univision/YouGov | Aug 27–Sep 4 | 1,000 RV | D 47 · R 47 | Even | univision.com ↗ |
| Arizona Attorney General | Arizona State University | Aug 18–Sep 4 | 1,300 RV | D 42 · R 36 | D+6 | dropbox.com ↗ |
| Arizona Secretary of State | Arizona State University | Aug 18–Sep 4 | 1,300 RV | D 39 · R 35 | D+4 | dropbox.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 3.