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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Texas

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).

Talarico is favored to win: Talarico wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Talarico (D)
70%
chance of winning
Paxton (R)
30%
Average margin
D+2.9
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+10
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
61in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (61%).

Talarico is favored to win: Talarico wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.

Talarico (D)
61%
chance of winning
Paxton (R)
39%
Average margin
D+1.8
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+10
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
61in our database

Range of outcomes

D+2.9R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+1.8R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Talarico 70%Paxton 30%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Talarico 61%Paxton 39%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

James Talarico

State representative from the 50th district (2018–present)

Experience
State legislature
Raised
$68.6M
From individuals
$65.6M
Spent
$47M
Cash on hand
$21.5M

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Ken Paxton

Attorney general of Texas (2015–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$19.5M
From individuals
$19M
Spent
$14.6M
Cash on hand
$4.9M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+0.7Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+2.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesD+2.6Polling average55 polls, latest Oct 14D+2.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+2.9Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+1.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.94
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0.79
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+2.9Oct 1Nov 3
All 60 polls
PollsterDatesSampleTalaricoPaxtonMarginAdjusted
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredOct 13–Oct 141,200 LV4849R+1Even
ActiVoteSep 30–Oct 14400 LV5248D+4
Quantus InsightsOct 9–Oct 11854 LV4747EvenD+2.5
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LV4745D+2R+0.9
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,196 RV4844D+4R+0.9
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredOct 6–Oct 81,086 LV4744D+3
ReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 5–Oct 8617 LV4844D+4D+1.7
YouGovSep 28–Oct 53,625 LV5044D+6D+5.0
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectSep 25–Oct 5861 LV5047D+3
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 21–Sep 30615 LV5145D+6
Rasmussen ReportsSep 28–Sep 291,128 LV4645D+1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 28881 LV5149D+2D+1.3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,203 RV5346D+7D+1.3
Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionR-sponsoredSep 20–Sep 28800 LV4744D+3
UMass Lowell/YouGovSep 18–Sep 28850 LV4545Even
Pulse Decision Science for Paxton's campaignR-sponsoredSep 24–Sep 27800 LV4548R+3
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectSep 24–Sep 26698 LV4745D+2
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectSep 24–Sep 26698 LV4542D+3
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectSep 24–Sep 26793 RV4644D+2
Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectSep 24–Sep 26793 RV4439D+5
Stratus Intelligence for Texans for a Conservative MajorityR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24856 LV4848Even
Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredSep 19–Sep 221,007 LV4944D+5
Marist UniversitySep 17–Sep 201,139 RV5044D+6
Texas Southern UniversitySep 15–Sep 191,800 LV4746D+1
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 15–Sep 171,079 LV4645D+1
Emerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LV4746D+1
SoCal StrategiesSep 12–Sep 13649 LV5045D+5
ReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LV4943D+6
Mason-Dixon for Telemundo TexasSep 8–Sep 10625 LV4643D+3
InsiderAdvantageSep 8–Sep 91,200 LV4746D+1
Univision/YouGovAug 27–Sep 41,000 RV4843D+5
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPAug 30–Sep 1895 LV4844D+4
Overton Insights for the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tankR-sponsoredAug 24–Aug 261,167 LV5050Even
Overton Insights for the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tankR-sponsoredAug 24–Aug 261,167 LV4443D+1
Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredAug 21–Aug 241,000 LV4842D+6
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectAug 5–Aug 131,200 RV4239D+3
Emerson CollegeAug 9–Aug 101,000 LV4647R+1
Wedgewood PollsJul 30–Jul 31800 LV4846D+2
YouGov Blue for 254 LabsD-sponsoredJul 15–Jul 311,001 RV4845D+3
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 27–Jul 30619 LV4743D+4
Texas Southern UniversityJul 27–Jul 301,200 LV4745D+2
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJul 23–Jul 271,005 RV5148D+3
Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredJul 15–Jul 171,048 LV4540D+5
A2 InsightsJun 23–Jun 28618 LV4846D+2
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 19–Jun 27656 LV4747Even
SoCal Strategies for Red Eagle Politics, which supports PaxtonR-sponsoredJun 21–Jun 21800 LV4749R+2
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectJun 5–Jun 121,200 RV4243R+1
Quantus InsightsJun 3–Jun 4800 LV4345R+2
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJun 1–Jun 4807 LV4646Even
Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredMay 27–May 281,670 LV4744D+3
Public Policy Polling for Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports TalaricoD-sponsoredMay 22–May 23643 RV4538D+7
Texas Southern UniversityApr 22–May 61,223 LV4545Even
Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredApr 17–Apr 201,018 LV4641D+5
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectApr 10–Apr 201,200 RV4234D+8
Impact Research for Talarico's campaignD-sponsoredMar 12–Mar 17900 LV4443D+1
Public Policy Polling for the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.SD-sponsoredMar 4–Mar 5576 V4745D+2
University of Houston/YouGovJan 20–Jan 311,502 LV4446R+2
Emerson CollegeJan 10–Jan 121,165 RV4646Even
Ragnar Research PartnersR-sponsoredNov 12–Nov 171,000 LV4444Even
University of Houston/Texas Southern UniversitySep 19–Oct 11,650 RV4649R+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 14, 2026.

The state

Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+9.4R+11.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+5.7R+10.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.9R+12.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
30,188,424
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
25%of adults
  • White 39%
  • Hispanic 40%
  • Black 12%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

11,228,847 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+12.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%

2020

11,140,334 votes · R+9.9
✓ John Cornyn (R)53.5%
Mary "mj" Hegar (D)43.9%
Kerry Douglas McKennon (L)1.9%
David B. Collins (G)0.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

11,149,473 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%

2016 President Vote in this state

8,562,915 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%

2014

4,647,370 votes · R+28.4
✓ John Cornyn (R)61.6%
David M. Alameel (D)34.4%
Rebecca Paddock (L)2.9%
Emily "spicybrown" Sanchez (G)1.2%

2008

7,912,075 votes · R+12.3
✓ John Cornyn (R)54.8%
Richard J. "rick" Noriega (D)42.8%
Yvonne Adams Schick (L)2.3%

2002

4,512,590 votes · R+12.1
✓ John Cornyn (R)55.3%
Ron Kirk (D)43.3%
Scott Lanier Jameson (L)0.8%
Roy H. Williams (G)0.6%

Also on the ballot in Texas

GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.