Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 76%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 16)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.D 70%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.1 D since Sep 16)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 17
Thursday, September 17, 2026
- Calls changed
- 8
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 22
- Compared with
- Sep 16
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 16. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 94%no change
Expected seats 235.4 D · 199.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 16)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.D 89%▼ R +1
Expected seats 235.2 D · 199.8 R (−0.4 D since Sep 16)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 72%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (−0.1 D since Sep 16)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 76%▼ R +2
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (−0.2 D since Sep 16)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.5R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+8.8D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 16 → now.
Governor races
- New York GovernorSolid D → Likely D
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| New York · D trifecta now | D trifecta 98% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 93% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
8 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 16 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 1 change
- New York GovernorSolid D → Likely D
New polls
22 polls new since Sep 16, in 16 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 10 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Attorney General | Siena College | Sep 11–Sep 17 | 1,144 LV | D 52 · R 39 | D+13 | sri.siena.edu ↗ |
| California's 11th District | Tavern Research for Jobs And Democracy super PAC, which supports WienerD sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 658 LV | D 45 · R — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| California's 11th District | Tavern Research for Jobs And Democracy super PAC, which supports WienerD sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 658 LV | D 53 · R — | — | politico.com ↗ |
| Colorado's 8th District | McLaughlin and Associates for Enhancing American Competitiveness, a conservative political nonprofit that supports EvansR sponsor | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 400 LV | D 46 · R 48 | R+2 | coloradosun.com ↗ |
| Utah's 4th District | Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 8–Sep 17 | 513 LV | D 33 · R 42 | R+9 | utahdebatecommission.org ↗ |
| Virginia's 1st District | DCCC Targeting TeamD sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 519 LV | D 46 · R 47 | R+1 | virginiascope.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | CNN/SSRS | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 867 RV | D 49 · R 41 | D+8 | cnn.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | John Zogby Strategies | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 1,007 LV | D 46 · R 40 | D+6 | johnzogbystrategies.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | John Zogby Strategies | Sep 15–Sep 17 | 1,007 LV | D 48 · R 42 | D+6 | johnzogbystrategies.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | CNN/SSRS | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 1,206 A | Approve 33 · Disapprove 67 | −34 net | documentcloud.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 16.