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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Iowa › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Iowa

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (47% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Turek (D)
47%
chance of winning
Hinson (R)
53%
Average margin
R+0.3
80% of outcomes
R+8 to D+7
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
37in our database

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (50% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Turek (D)
50%
chance of winning
Hinson (R)
50%
Average margin
Even
80% of outcomes
R+8 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
37in our database

Range of outcomes

R+0.3R+15R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15
EvenR+15R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Turek 47%Hinson 53%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Turek 50%Hinson 50%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Josh Turek

State representative from the 20th district (2023–present)

Experience
State legislature
Raised
$6.3M
From individuals
$5.8M
Spent
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$2.4M

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Ashley Hinson

U.S. representative from IA-2 (2021–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$13.5M
From individuals
$7.1M
Spent
$8.5M
Cash on hand
$6.9M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+3.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+4.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Iowa and look-alikeplacesR+2.6Polling average30 polls, latest Oct 12D+0.5Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+0.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayEven

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.35
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-1.06
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+0.5Jan 11Nov 3
All 37 polls
PollsterDatesSampleTurekHinsonMarginAdjusted
YouGovOct 6–Oct 122,245 LV4746D+1R+0.2
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LV4845D+3D+0.1
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,100 RV5144D+7D+0.1
Emerson College for Nexstar Media GroupOct 5–Oct 6650 LV4547R+2R+0.6
SSRS for CNNSep 29–Oct 5801 LV4345R+2R+3.6
Suffolk UniversityOct 1–Oct 4500 LV4844D+4D+2.6
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1606 LV4748R+1
Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 301,048 LV4743D+4
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 29738 LV4647R+1
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 29738 LV4749R+2
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 29738 LV4951R+2
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,008 LV4947D+2D+1.4
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,204 RV5046D+4D+1.4
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 231,200 LV4746D+1
Marist UniversitySep 17–Sep 201,050 RV5042D+8
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 16–Sep 181,089 LV4244R+2
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 16831 LV4246R+4
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 16831 LV4348R+5
Cygnal for the Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsoredSep 9–Sep 11500 LV4343Even
Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsoredSep 8–Sep 101,031 LV4540D+5
YouGovSep 3–Sep 82,169 RV4443D+1
YouGovSep 3–Sep 82,041 LV4743D+4
Emerson CollegeAug 31–Sep 1750 LV4550R+5
Global Strategy Group for Turek's campaignD-sponsoredAug 27–Aug 31800 LV4642D+4
Wedgewood PollsAug 27–Aug 29600 LV4850R+2
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28323 LV5445D+9
Abacus DataAug 26–Aug 28500 RV5246D+6
Suffolk UniversityAug 20–Aug 23500 LV4145R+4
Emerson CollegeAug 2–Aug 4712 LV4548R+3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJun 23–Jun 271,003 RV5046D+4
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 27600 LV4648R+2
Cygnal for Iowans for Tax ReliefR-sponsoredJun 16–Jun 19600 LV4446R+2
Global Strategy Group for Turek's campaignD-sponsoredJun 8–Jun 111,000 LV4745D+2
Public Policy Polling for the DSCCD-sponsoredJun 3–Jun 4557 RV4646Even
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceR-sponsoredApr 3–Apr 9377 LV4645D+1
GQR for Turek's campaignD-sponsoredMar 10–Mar 161,200 LV4347R+4
Change ResearchD-sponsoredJan 8–Jan 111,108 LV4144R+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.

The state

Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+10.1R+12.4 vs. nation2020 presidentR+8.4R+12.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.4R+11.9 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,210,507
Adults with a B.A.+
31%
White, no degree
58%of adults
  • White 82%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,634,297 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+11.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%

2020

1,671,828 votes · R+6.8
✓ Joni Ernst (R)51.7%
Theresa Greenfield (D)45.2%
Rick Stewart (L)2.2%
Suzanne Herzog (OTH)0.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,656,733 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+12.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Joe Biden (D)45.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,454,652 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%

2014

1,128,589 votes · R+8.7
✓ Joni Ernst (R)52.2%
Bruce Braley (D)43.8%
Rick Stewart (I)2.4%
Douglas Butzier (L)0.7%
Bob Quast (OTH)0.5%

2008

1,501,671 votes · D+25.4
✓ Tom Harkin (D)62.7%
Christopher Reed (R)37.3%

2002

1,022,374 votes · D+10.6
✓ Tom Harkin (D)54.2%
Greg Ganske (R)43.8%
Timothy A. Harthan (G)1.1%
Richard J. Moore (L)0.9%

Also on the ballot in Iowa

GovernorRob SandZach LahnD flipD flip83%Dem.79%Dem.