Democratic
Illinois › Illinois House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Representative District 48
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (51% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Zahorak (D)
51%
chance of winning
Sanalitro (R)
49%
- Average margin
- D+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Zahorak is favored to win: Zahorak wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Zahorak (D)
68%
chance of winning
Sanalitro (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jennifer Sanalitro
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -10.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 96,578
- People per km²
- 997
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 3%
- Asian 13%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
52,108 votes · R+15.8✓ Jennifer Sanalitro (R)57.9%
Maria C Vesey (D)42.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,647 two-party votes · R+4.9 · R+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Kamala Harris (D)47.5%
2022
37,534 votes · R+10.1✓ Jennifer Sanalitro (R)55.0%
Azam Nizamuddin (D)45.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,931 votes · D+7.5✓ Terra Costa Howard (D)53.8%
Peter Breen (R)46.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
54,452 two-party votes · D+2.7 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
45,642 two-party votes · D+4.1 · D+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%