Democratic
Amy Klobuchar
U.S. senator (2007–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Minnesota › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota Governor
Klobuchar is clearly favored to win: Klobuchar wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Klobuchar (D)
94%
chance of winning
Demuth (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 11in our database
Klobuchar is clearly favored to win: Klobuchar wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Klobuchar (D)
92%
chance of winning
Demuth (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- 11in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Lisa Demuth
Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives (2025–present) from district 13A (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Minnesota state offices
- −1.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+7.8Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 11 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Klobuchar | Demuth | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 | D+8.2 |
| Morning Consult for The Daily AgendaD-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 7 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 39 | D+9 | D+7.1 |
| KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune | Oct 5–Oct 7 | 800 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 | D+10.1 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 833 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | D+6.5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | Sep 9–Sep 14 | 654 LV | 47 | 40 | D+7 | D+8.8 |
| TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,494 RV | 47 | 37 | D+10 | D+14.0 |
| TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,201 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 | D+14.0 |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 661 LV | 51 | 36 | D+15 | |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for the Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication, KARE 11, and The Minneapolis Star Tribune | Jun 8–Jun 10 | 800 LV | 48 | 40 | D+8 | |
| Emerson College | Feb 6–Feb 8 | 1,000 LV | 51 | 38 | D+13 | |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV | Jan 27–Jan 30 | 575 RV | 49 | 34 | D+15 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.
The state
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,739,445
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,176,011 two-party votes · D+4.3 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022
2,510,661 votes · D+7.9✓ Tim Walz (D)52.3%
Scott Jensen (R)44.6%
James McCaskel (OTH)1.2%
Steve Patterson (OTH)0.9%
Hugh McTavish (OTH)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,201,142 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018
2,587,287 votes · D+11.9✓ Tim Walz And Peggy Flanagan (D)53.8%
Jeff Johnson And Donna Bergstrom (R)42.4%
Chris Wright And Judith Schwartzbacker (OTH)2.7%
Josh Welter And Mary O'Connor (L)1.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,690,654 two-party votes · D+1.7 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2014
1,974,611 votes · D+5.9✓ Mark Dayton (D)50.1%
Jeff Johnson (R)44.5%
Hannah Nicollet (I)2.9%
Chris Wright (G)1.6%
Chris Holbrook (L)0.9%
2010
2,105,157 votes · D+0.5✓ Mark Dayton (D)43.7%
Tom Emmer (R)43.2%
Tom Horner (I)11.9%
2006
2,201,988 votes · R+1.0✓ Tim Pawlenty (R)46.7%
Mike Hatch (D)45.8%
Peter Hutchinson (I)6.4%
2002
2,251,127 votes · R+9.8✓ Tim Pawlenty (R)44.4%
Roger Moe (D)36.5%
Tim Penny (I)16.2%
Ken Pentel (G)2.2%