Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (0 D since Sep 28)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 70%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 28)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 29
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
- Calls changed
- 5
- Party changes
- 3
- New polls
- 17
- Compared with
- Sep 28
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 28. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%no change
Expected seats 236.8 D · 198.2 R (0 D since Sep 28)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 91%no change
Expected seats 236.8 D · 198.2 R (+0.3 D since Sep 28)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%no change
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (0 D since Sep 28)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 75%no change
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 28)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0no change
Forecast environment
D+9.2no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 28.
Every call change
5 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 28 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 4 changes in 4 chambers
Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
West Virginia House of Delegates · 1 change
- HD-55Lean R → Toss-up
New polls
17 polls new since Sep 28, in 11 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 5 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Rasmussen Reports | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,128 LV | D 46 · R 45 | D+1 | rasmussenreports.com ↗ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Saint Anselm College for AARP | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,042 LV | D 45 · R 52 | R+7 | aarp.org ↗ |
| New York's 17th District | Emerson College for WPIX | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 400 LV | D 48 · R 46 | D+2 | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| West Virginia Senate District 1 | State Navigate | Sep 28–Sep 29 | 1,065 LV | D 43 · R 48 | R+5 | projects.statenavigate.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Napolitan News/RMG Research | Sep 21–Sep 29 | 2,000 RV | Approve 41 · Disapprove 58 | −17 net | napolitannews.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 28.