Democratic
Nicole Cannizzaro
Majority leader of the Nevada Senate (2019–present) from the 6th district (2016–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Nevada › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada Attorney General
Cannizzaro is clearly favored to win: Cannizzaro wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cannizzaro (D)
91%
chance of winning
Fralick (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+8.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Cannizzaro is clearly favored to win: Cannizzaro wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Cannizzaro (D)
85%
chance of winning
Fralick (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Chair of Nevada's Cannabis Compliance Board
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Nevada state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.37 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cannizzaro | Fralick | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | 42 | 31 | D+11 | D+9.3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | 45 | 37 | D+8 | D+9.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 26, 2026.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,184,612
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 9%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
944,997 votes · D+8.2✓ Aaron D Ford (D)54.1%
Sigal Chattah (R)45.9%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2018
940,176 votes · D+0.5✓ Aaron Ford (D)48.5%
Wes Duncan (R)48.0%
Joel F Hansen (OTH)3.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%