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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas Governor

Abbott is favored to win: Abbott wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.

Hinojosa (D)
32%
chance of winning
Abbott (R)
68%
Average margin
R+2.8
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+5
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
53in our database

Abbott is favored to win: Abbott wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Hinojosa (D)
36%
chance of winning
Abbott (R)
64%
Average margin
R+2.3
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+6
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
53in our database

Range of outcomes

R+2.8R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+2.3R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hinojosa 32%Abbott 68%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Hinojosa 36%Abbott 64%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Texas state offices
−0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+0.7Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+7.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesR+7.6Polling average47 polls, latest Oct 14R+2.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+2.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+2.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.24
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.24

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. R+2.4Jan 12Nov 3
All 53 polls
PollsterDatesSampleHinojosaAbbottMarginAdjusted
ActiVoteSep 30–Oct 14400 LV4951R+2R+1.4
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LV4549R+4R+7.4
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,196 RV4748R+1R+7.4
GBAO for Hinojosa's campaignD-sponsoredOct 5–Oct 8800 LV4745D+2R+4.0
ReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 5–Oct 8617 LV4748R+1R+3.7
YouGovSep 28–Oct 53,625 LV4847D+1R+0.3
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectSep 25–Oct 5861 LV4948D+1
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1615 LV4946D+3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,005 LV4752R+5R+5.8
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,203 RV4950R+1R+5.8
Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First ActionSep 20–Sep 28800 LV4446R+2
UMass Lowell/YouGovSep 18–Sep 28850 LV4448R+4
Big Data PollSep 24–Sep 26698 LV4449R+5
Big Data PollSep 24–Sep 26698 LV4447R+3
Big Data PollSep 24–Sep 26793 RV4448R+4
Big Data PollSep 24–Sep 26793 RV4346R+3
Stratus IntelligenceR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 24865 LV4550R+5
Texas Public Opinion ResearchSep 19–Sep 221,007 LV4650R+4
Marist UniversitySep 17–Sep 201,139 RV4946D+3
Texas Southern UniversitySep 15–Sep 191,800 LV4549R+4
Emerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LV4649R+3
SoCal StrategiesR-sponsoredSep 12–Sep 13649 LV4452R+8
ReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LV4945D+4
Mason-DixonSep 8–Sep 10625 LV4148R+7
Univision/YouGovAug 27–Sep 41,000 RV4747Even
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPAug 30–Sep 1895 LV4649R+3
Overton Insights for Texas Public Policy FoundationR-sponsoredAug 24–Aug 261,167 LV4951R+2
Overton Insights for Texas Public Policy FoundationR-sponsoredAug 24–Aug 261,167 LV4647R+1
Texas Public Opinion ResearchAug 21–Aug 241,000 LV4249R+7
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectAug 5–Aug 131,200 RV4045R+5
Emerson College for Nexstar MediaAug 9–Aug 101,000 LV4549R+4
GBAOD-sponsoredAug 4–Aug 91,000 LV4849R+1
Wedgewood PollsD-sponsoredJul 30–Jul 31800 LV4450R+6
CygnalR-sponsoredJul 29–Jul 31800 LV4649R+3
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 27–Jul 30619 LV4546R+1
Texas Southern UniversityJul 27–Jul 301,200 LV4349R+6
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJul 23–Jul 271,005 RV4950R+1
Texas Public Opinion ResearchJul 15–Jul 171,048 LV4245R+3
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 19–Jun 27656 LV4451R+7
SoCal Strategies for Red Eagle Politics, a conservative online content creatorR-sponsoredJun 21–Jun 21800 LV4254R+12
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectJun 5–Jun 121,200 RV4047R+7
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredJun 3–Jun 4800 LV4149R+8
Texas A&M University/ReconMRJun 1–Jun 4807 LV4349R+6
Texas Public Opinion ResearchMay 27–May 281,670 LV4146R+5
Public Policy Polling for Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports James Talarico's campaign for U.SD-sponsoredMay 22–May 23643 RV4448R+4
Texas Southern University/YouGovApr 22–May 51,223 LV4349R+6
Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion ResearchD-sponsoredApr 17–Apr 201,018 LV4348R+5
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectApr 10–Apr 201,200 RV3844R+6
UT TylerFeb 13–Feb 221,117 RV4149R+8
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectFeb 2–Feb 161,300 RV3545R+10
GBAO for Hinojosa's campaignD-sponsoredJan 26–Feb 31,000 LV4346R+3
University of Houston/YouGovJan 20–Jan 311,502 LV4249R+7
Emerson College for Nexstar MediaJan 10–Jan 121,165 RV4250R+8

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 14, 2026.

The state

Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+9.4R+11.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+5.7R+10.2 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.9R+12.4 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
30,188,424
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
25%of adults
  • White 39%
  • Hispanic 40%
  • Black 12%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

11,228,847 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+12.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%

2022

8,106,768 votes · R+11.0
✓ Abbott (R)54.7%
O'Rourke (D)43.8%
Tippetts (L)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

11,149,473 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%

2018

8,341,613 votes · R+13.5
✓ Abbott (R)55.8%
Valdez (D)42.5%
Tippetts (L)1.7%

2016 President Vote in this state

8,562,915 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%

2014

4,632,143 votes · R+20.7
✓ Greg Abbott (R)60.4%
Wendy R. Davis (D)39.6%

2010

4,843,876 votes · R+13.0
✓ Rick Perry (R)56.5%
Bill White (D)43.5%

2006

4,399,068 votes · R+13.4
✓ Rick Perry (R)39.0%
Chris Bell (D)29.8%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I)18.1%
Richard "Kinky" Friedman (I)12.4%
James Werner (L)0.6%

2002

4,452,389 votes · R+18.3
✓ Rick Perry (R)59.1%
Tony Sanchez (D)40.9%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem.