Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (+0.1 D since Oct 16)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 16)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 17
Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Calls changed
- 15
- Party changes
- 6
- New polls
- 9
- New FEC totals
- 253
- Compared with
- Oct 16
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 16. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (0 D since Oct 16)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.9 D · 196.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 16)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 16)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Oct 16)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.1no change
Forecast environment
D+9.3R +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 16 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IowaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Governor races
- South Dakota GovernorLikely R → Solid R
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| South Dakota · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 90% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 99% |
| Wisconsin | D trifecta 61% · R trifecta 2% | D trifecta 60% · R trifecta 2% |
Every call change
15 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 16 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in IowaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Governors 1 change
- South Dakota GovernorLikely R → Solid R
State legislatures 11 changes in 6 chambers
Arizona House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-2Likely D → Lean D
Arizona State Senate · 1 change
- LD-9Solid D → Likely D
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
- SD-32Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Minnesota State Senate · 1 change
- SD-58Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Nebraska Legislature · 1 change
- LD-4Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
9 polls new since Oct 16, in 7 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Arkansas | Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics | Oct 8–Oct 13 | 709 LV | D 41 · R 50 | R+9 | talkbusiness.net ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Rasmussen ReportsR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 14 | 798 LV | D 46 · R 44 | D+2 | rasmussenreports.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | The Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better FutureR sponsor | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 600 LV | D 44 · R 43 | D+1 | betterfutureai.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Montana | Peak Insights for Alme's campaignR sponsor | Oct 7–Oct 12 | 500 LV | Ind. 29 · R 44 | R+15 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Dakota | Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education ReformD sponsor | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | D 43 · R 42 | D+1 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Connecticut Governor | Quinnipiac University | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 1,225 LV | D 58 · R 38 | D+20 | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| Connecticut Governor | Quinnipiac University | Sep 8–Sep 14 | 1,288 LV | D 55 · R 38 | D+17 | poll.qu.edu ↗ |
| South Dakota Governor | Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education ReformD sponsor | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | D 38 · R 48 | R+10 | documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Ohio's 1st District | Torchlight Strategies for Conroy's campaignR sponsor | Sep 29–Oct 2 | 400 LV | D 46 · R 44 | D+2 | x.com ↗ |
Fundraising
253 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 16. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico Democratic | U.S. Senate in Texas | $128,772,835 | +$60,211,905 | $14,594,232 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jon Ossoff Democratic | U.S. Senate in Georgia | $110,426,538 | +$33,146,772 | $26,269,062 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Abdul El-Sayed Democratic | U.S. Senate in Michigan | $45,175,567 | +$30,661,231 | $3,792,203 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Sherrod Brown Democratic | U.S. Senate in Ohio (special) | $61,686,820 | +$23,120,586 | $4,861,452 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Josh Turek Democratic | U.S. Senate in Iowa | $20,152,882 | +$13,876,355 | $3,607,093 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Annie Andrews Democratic | U.S. Senate in South Carolina | $20,173,697 | +$9,369,657 | $2,307,632 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Adam Hamilton Democratic | U.S. Senate in Kansas | $13,533,711 | +$9,364,633 | $3,183,400 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Angie Nixon Democratic | U.S. Senate in Florida (special) | $8,177,944 | +$7,203,099 | $4,113,083 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Chris Pappas Democratic | U.S. Senate in New Hampshire | $21,500,073 | +$6,115,416 | $3,283,894 | Sep 30 (was Aug 19) |
| Cait Conley Democratic | New York's 17th District | $9,690,169 | +$5,371,692 | $1,168,964 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Anthony Constantino Republican | New York's 21st District | $14,464,872 | +$5,004,618 | $4,134,382 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Eric Jones Democratic | California's 4th District | $13,256,264 | +$4,877,335 | $1,192,259 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
Show 88 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Rutinel Democratic | Colorado's 8th District | $8,578,254 | +$4,241,266 | $1,819,233 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Dan Osborn Independent | U.S. Senate in Nebraska | $9,805,860 | +$4,050,409 | $2,210,572 | Oct 14 |
| JoAnna Mendoza Democratic | Arizona's 6th District | $10,760,731 | +$3,405,923 | $1,530,010 | Sep 30 (was Jul 1) |
| Rebecca Cooke Democratic | Wisconsin's 3rd District | $11,959,646 | +$3,358,500 | $901,408 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Bobby Pulido Democratic | Texas's 15th District | $6,213,369 | +$3,252,907 | $1,373,712 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Amish Shah Democratic | Arizona's 1st District | $5,038,605 | +$3,208,412 | $491,966 | Sep 30 (was Jul 1) |
| Brandon Gill Republican | Texas's 26th District | $7,293,891 | +$3,076,678 | $1,955,246 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Randy Villegas Democratic | California's 22nd District | $5,465,022 | +$2,819,456 | $706,800 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Eileen Laubacher Democratic | Colorado's 4th District | $13,041,221 | +$2,691,281 | $3,318,773 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Hakeem Jeffries Democratic | New York's 8th District | $17,526,400 | +$2,626,419 | $4,396,060 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| William Lawrence Democratic | Michigan's 7th District | $3,665,521 | +$2,546,323 | $1,033,484 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Democratic | Washington's 3rd District | $8,838,141 | +$2,545,458 | $638,388 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Marni von Wilpert Democratic | California's 48th District | $4,518,377 | +$2,343,505 | $972,803 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Sam Forstag Democratic | Montana's 1st District | $3,690,160 | +$2,307,062 | $855,807 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Denise Powell Democratic | Nebraska's 2nd District | $4,854,805 | +$2,186,518 | $990,892 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Pete Ricketts Republican | U.S. Senate in Nebraska | $13,405,556 | +$2,172,049 | $1,073,044 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Doris Matsui Democratic | California's 7th District | $5,248,905 | +$2,056,818 | $180,197 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Shannon Taylor Democratic | Virginia's 1st District | $4,192,970 | +$2,051,990 | $891,310 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Jamie Davis Democratic | U.S. Senate in Louisiana | $4,015,530 | +$2,031,982 | $942,253 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jonathan Nez Democratic | Arizona's 2nd District | $5,361,320 | +$1,841,560 | $1,185,731 | Sep 30 (was Jul 1) |
| Blake Gendebien Democratic | New York's 21st District | $7,184,413 | +$1,722,885 | $469,808 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Pia Dandiya Democratic | Florida's 22nd District | $3,930,912 | +$1,646,860 | $1,096,996 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Scott Colom Democratic | U.S. Senate in Mississippi | $3,926,491 | +$1,541,570 | $991,803 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Darline Graham Republican | U.S. Senate in South Carolina | $1,827,626 | +$1,480,843 | $609,732 | Sep 30 (was Aug 5) |
| Gabe Vasquez Democratic | New Mexico's 2nd District | $5,259,751 | +$1,475,649 | $643,617 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Zach Dembo Democratic | Kentucky's 6th District | $2,871,241 | +$1,404,711 | $813,914 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Tom Perriello Democratic | Virginia's 5th District | $3,472,774 | +$1,332,372 | $1,032,435 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Don Davis Democratic | North Carolina's 1st District | $5,572,578 | +$1,285,192 | $2,027,710 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Derrick Van Orden Republican | Wisconsin's 3rd District | $8,794,975 | +$1,268,923 | $2,119,420 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Richard Pan Democratic | California's 6th District | $2,312,761 | +$1,214,478 | $612,835 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Brett Guthrie Republican | Kentucky's 2nd District | $5,897,228 | +$1,189,635 | $1,675,403 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Vicente Gonzalez Democratic | Texas's 34th District | $4,956,873 | +$1,182,958 | $1,834,820 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Juliana Stratton Democratic | U.S. Senate in Illinois | $7,089,488 | +$1,182,889 | $1,645,967 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Brent Taylor Republican | Tennessee's 9th District | $2,694,179 | +$1,144,697 | $821,765 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Young Kim Republican | California's 40th District | $9,977,513 | +$1,140,274 | $1,957,662 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Connie Chan Democratic | California's 11th District | $2,229,994 | +$1,135,673 | $842,790 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| David Valadao Republican | California's 22nd District | $6,058,553 | +$1,130,951 | $2,398,492 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Zach Nunn Republican | Iowa's 3rd District | $5,968,952 | +$1,099,703 | $1,419,455 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mike Thompson Democratic | California's 4th District | $5,223,270 | +$1,019,257 | $1,514,642 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Josh Riley Democratic | New York's 19th District | $5,844,412 | +$1,018,746 | $2,164,517 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bill Hill Independent | Alaska's at-large District | $2,348,816 | +$1,012,524 | $190,431 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Scott Wiener Democratic | California's 11th District | $5,572,656 | +$1,011,536 | $843,077 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Johnny Garcia Democratic | Texas's 35th District | $1,917,104 | +$985,405 | $509,758 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Thomas Kean Jr. Republican | New Jersey's 7th District | $5,867,419 | +$974,612 | $2,286,695 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jason Smith Republican | Missouri's 8th District | $6,232,306 | +$968,123 | $5,462,779 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Beth Macy Democratic | Virginia's 6th District | $2,634,642 | +$948,320 | $525,139 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Todd Achilles Independent | U.S. Senate in Idaho | $1,632,335 | +$940,090 | $369,110 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chris Gallant Democratic | New York's 1st District | $1,577,423 | +$929,825 | $609,773 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jay Feely Republican | Arizona's 1st District | $3,432,885 | +$904,388 | $478,566 | Sep 30 (was Jul 31) |
| Brian Bengs Independent | U.S. Senate in South Dakota | $1,678,332 | +$896,282 | $145,703 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bob Harvie Democratic | Pennsylvania's 1st District | $2,895,901 | +$888,345 | $721,019 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jamee Decio Democratic | Indiana's 2nd District | $1,242,511 | +$886,922 | $632,161 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kurt Alme Republican | U.S. Senate in Montana | $2,865,666 | +$880,805 | $840,199 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Greg Cunningham Republican | New Mexico's 2nd District | $2,384,671 | +$874,591 | $726,563 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Derek Tran Democratic | California's 45th District | $5,846,183 | +$864,906 | $3,247,643 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Adam Gray Democratic | California's 13th District | $5,054,176 | +$861,728 | $1,203,302 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Janelle Bynum Democratic | Oregon's 5th District | $4,617,302 | +$857,090 | $2,327,750 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Nick Begich III Republican | Alaska's at-large District | $6,320,644 | +$850,198 | $2,386,653 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Dwayne Romero Democratic | Colorado's 3rd District | $1,539,834 | +$823,258 | $262,395 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Fred Wellman Democratic | Missouri's 2nd District | $1,953,675 | +$797,795 | $571,304 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Sharice Davids Democratic | Kansas's 3rd District | $4,480,197 | +$789,757 | $1,825,456 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Ben Ray Luján Democratic | U.S. Senate in New Mexico | $6,405,516 | +$778,887 | $3,614,566 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Josh Gottheimer Democratic | New Jersey's 5th District | $5,543,923 | +$778,778 | $13,387,136 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Julia Letlow Republican | U.S. Senate in Louisiana | $6,979,082 | +$768,960 | $1,418,763 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chaz Molder Democratic | Tennessee's 5th District | $3,380,345 | +$765,613 | $1,064,156 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Henry Cuellar Democratic | Texas's 28th District | $2,992,065 | +$760,113 | $1,050,094 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jim Schwartzel Republican | Florida's 19th District | $2,790,638 | +$725,153 | $538,693 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Robert Garcia Democratic | California's 42nd District | $3,317,845 | +$702,725 | $1,598,342 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Eric Conroy Republican | Ohio's 1st District | $2,208,277 | +$694,663 | $333,444 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| J. D. Ford Democratic | Indiana's 5th District | $1,266,361 | +$684,274 | $493,669 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Eliott Rodriguez Democratic | Florida's 27th District | $1,339,984 | +$678,811 | $679,388 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Kevin Lincoln Republican | California's 13th District | $2,892,589 | +$655,505 | $682,208 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt Republican | South Carolina's 1st District | $1,193,975 | +$637,557 | $685,622 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Steven Horsford Democratic | Nevada's 4th District | $3,967,520 | +$616,957 | $1,176,289 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Colin Allred Democratic | Texas's 33rd District | $8,033,510 | +$601,569 | $248,457 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kim Schrier Democratic | Washington's 8th District | $3,611,410 | +$594,516 | $3,584,515 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Tim Burchett Republican | Tennessee's 2nd District | $3,021,499 | +$592,765 | $1,010,015 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Kevin Kiley Independent | California's 6th District | $3,570,594 | +$581,789 | $519,859 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Richard Ojeda Democratic | North Carolina's 9th District | $2,809,837 | +$572,329 | $153,721 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Brad Schneider Democratic | Illinois's 10th District | $3,575,300 | +$568,438 | $1,675,787 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Pat Ryan Democratic | New York's 18th District | $5,290,715 | +$567,088 | $2,682,522 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ann Wagner Republican | Missouri's 2nd District | $4,090,135 | +$562,040 | $2,365,705 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Ilhan Omar Democratic | Minnesota's 5th District | $6,372,339 | +$542,624 | $1,262,192 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Dan Koh Democratic | Massachusetts's 6th District | $5,251,469 | +$534,926 | $999,275 | Sep 30 (was Aug 12) |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson Democratic | Nevada's 2nd District | $790,477 | +$533,390 | $230,699 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| David Taylor Republican | Ohio's 2nd District | $1,630,320 | +$530,572 | $709,633 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Frank Pallone Democratic | New Jersey's 6th District | $2,743,879 | +$529,042 | $3,148,164 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Pete Stauber Republican | Minnesota's 8th District | $2,502,379 | +$505,481 | $1,216,311 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
Showing 100 of 253, largest new amounts first.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 16.