Michigan · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Michigan House of Representatives?

All 110 seats are on the ballot. 56 seats make a majority. 74 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are favored to control the Michigan House of Representatives (77%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

77%

chance of control

Republicans

23%

Avg. D seats: 59.280% range 53–66
Avg. R seats: 50.880% range 44–57
Now: 52 D · 58 R110 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (74+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are favored to control the Michigan House of Representatives (62%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats

62%

chance of control

Republicans

38%

Avg. D seats: 57.380% range 50–65
Avg. R seats: 52.780% range 45–60
Now: 52 D · 58 R110 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (74+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 110 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D47

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HD-1
HD-3
HD-4
HD-5
HD-6
HD-7
HD-8
HD-9
HD-10
HD-11
HD-12
HD-14
HD-16
HD-17
HD-18
HD-19
HD-21
HD-23
HD-24
HD-25
HD-26
HD-32
HD-33
HD-38
HD-40
HD-41
HD-47
HD-53
HD-56
HD-69
HD-70
HD-73
HD-74
HD-75
HD-77
HD-80
HD-81
HD-82
HD-83
HD-87
HD-94

Likely D5

Lean D6

Toss-up1

HD-27risk

Lean R7

Likely R9

Solid R35

Show 29 more

Solid D36

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HD-1
HD-4
HD-5
HD-6
HD-7
HD-8
HD-9
HD-10
HD-11
HD-12
HD-16
HD-17
HD-18
HD-19
HD-23
HD-24
HD-26
HD-32
HD-33
HD-40
HD-41
HD-47
HD-53
HD-70
HD-74
HD-75
HD-77
HD-80
HD-82
HD-94

Likely D12

Lean D8

Toss-up3

Lean R10

Likely R8

Solid R33

Show 27 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Michigan

Detroit

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-27Jaime ChurchesRylee LintingFlip riskFlip risk59%Dem.59%Rep. HD-68Matt SchlinkerDavid Martin62%Rep.66%Rep. HD-46Jan MainoKathy SchmaltzD flipD flip63%Dem.60%Dem. HD-86Joseph McCluskyNancy DeBoerD flipD flip63%Dem.72%Dem. HD-44Jim HaadsmaSteve FrisbieD flipFlip risk68%Dem.55%Dem. HD-88Kiel ReidGreg VanWoerkom70%Rep.64%Rep. HD-55Alex HawkinsMark TisdelD flipD flip70%Dem.73%Dem. HD-109Anna Aho RinkKarl BohnakD flipD flip70%Dem.68%Dem. HD-28Sherry BereczJamie Thompson72%Rep.72%Rep. HD-58Katrina ManettaRon Robinson76%Rep.77%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-54Sarah PoundsRoman GaskeyD flipD flip89%to flip71%to flip HD-109Anna Aho RinkKarl BohnakD flipD flip70%to flip68%to flip HD-55Alex HawkinsMark TisdelD flipD flip70%to flip73%to flip HD-44Jim HaadsmaSteve FrisbieD flipFlip risk68%to flip55%to flip HD-86Joseph McCluskyNancy DeBoerD flipD flip63%to flip72%to flip HD-46Jan MainoKathy SchmaltzD flipD flip63%to flip60%to flip HD-27Jaime ChurchesRylee LintingFlip riskFlip risk59%to flip41%to flip HD-68Matt SchlinkerDavid Martin38%to flip34%to flip HD-88Kiel ReidGreg VanWoerkom30%to flip36%to flip HD-28Sherry BereczJamie Thompson28%to flip28%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

110 races.

110 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Tyrone CarterINC● Valerie Whittaker	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+65.4D+68.3	Solid DSolid D	D+64	—
HD-2	● Joanna Whaley● Ron Kokinda	97%3% 83%17%	D+14.2D+9.1	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-3	● Alabas FarhatINC● Gus Tarraf	99%1% 88%12%	D+23.7D+11.6	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-4	● Regina Ross● Everett Davis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+80.5D+91.2	Solid DSolid D	D+88	—
HD-5	● Candace Calloway● Chris Venable	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+78.0D+82.7	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
HD-6	● Melanie Macey● Mike Steger	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.0D+38.5	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
HD-7	● Tonya Myers PhillipsINC● Reginald Moorer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.8D+72.4	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
HD-8	● Chris Gilmer-Hill● Bruce LangranAlso: Stephen Boyle (G)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+78.0D+82.8	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
HD-9	● Willie Burton● Michele LundgrenAlso: Jahdante John Elijah Smith (G), Logan Ausherman (WCP)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+83.8D+89.7	Solid DSolid D	D+86	—
HD-10	● Veronica PaizINC● Peter OchsAlso: Piper Willow Smith (WCP)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.1D+42.6	Solid DSolid D	D+37	—
HD-11	● Kimberly Fisher● Matthew Stafford	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.6D+66.7	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
HD-12	● Kimberly EdwardsINC● Randell Shafer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.7D+40.2	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
HD-13	● Mai XiongINC● Mark Foster	93%7% 64%36%	D+12.0D+3.3	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-14	● Mike McFallINC● Larry SyzskaAlso: Jeff Sparling (G)	99%1% 96%4%	D+22.5D+17.3	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-15	● Jalal Abdallah● Hassan Nehme	96%4% 84%16%	D+13.6D+9.6	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-16	● Stephanie YoungINC● Brian Duggan	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.6D+56.9	Solid DSolid D	D+52	—
HD-17	● Laurie PohutskyINC● Ken Crider	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.0D+40.5	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
HD-18	● Kelly Garrett● Ryan Foster	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.0D+60.5	Solid DSolid D	D+56	—
HD-19	● Samantha SteckloffINC● Kevin Hammer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.5D+39.3	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
HD-20	● Noah ArbitINC● S. David Sullivan	98%2% 89%11%	D+17.2D+12.0	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-21	● Kelly BreenINC● Ross Barranco	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+22.8D+18.3	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-22	● Lisa McIntyre● Casey Noce	94%6% 82%18%	D+11.9D+8.6	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-23	● Jason MorganINC● Miriam CorvinoAlso: Christina Marudas (G)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.5D+33.6	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-24	● Ranjeev PuriINC● Allison Fuller	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.6D+23.7	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-25	● Peter HerzbergINC● Dawn Udell	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.8D+20.3	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-26	● Dylan WegelaINC● Chris Dobis	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.6D+32.4	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-27Flip riskFlip risk	● Jaime Churches● Rylee LintingINC	59%41% 41%59%	D+1.5R+2.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+8	—
HD-28	● Sherry Berecz● Jamie ThompsonINC	28%72% 28%72%	R+4.1R+5.5	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-29	● Darian Counts● James DeSanaINC	18%82% 25%75%	R+6.6R+6.4	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-30	● Omar Ferdin● William BruckINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.4R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-31	● Shannon Dare Wayne● Laura Perry	77%23% 62%38%	D+5.3D+2.8	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
HD-32	● Jimmie Wilson Jr.INC● Mike EllerAlso: John R. Tatar (CST), Ryan Sample (G)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+57.3D+58.7	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
HD-33	● Morgan ForemanINC● Catherine Rogers	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+54.1D+55.3	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
HD-34	● John E. Dahlgren● Nancy Jenkins-ArnoINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+15.3R+16.5	Solid RSolid R	R+21	—
HD-35	● Jeff Cooley● Jennifer WortzINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.6R+42.3	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-36	● Cole Slaski● Steve CarraINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.0R+29.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-37	● Angela Jones● Brad PaquetteINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.0R+18.1	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-38	● Joey AndrewsINC● Mark KriegerAlso: Jett Newton (G)	99%1% 92%8%	D+20.2D+13.7	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-39	● Kerry Tapper● Pauline WendzelINCAlso: Jared Polonowski (G)	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.6R+18.4	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-40	● Matt LongjohnINC● Robert Sitarski	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.2D+22.7	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-41	● Jen Strebs● Nicole SabelAlso: Rafael Wolf (L)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.1D+57.0	Solid DSolid D	D+53	—
HD-42	● Nick Rowe● Matt HallINC	22%78% 33%67%	R+5.7R+4.0	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-43	● Alan Swank● Rachelle SmitINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.5R+36.3	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-44D flipFlip risk	● Jim Haadsma● Steve FrisbieINC	68%32% 55%45%	D+3.3D+1.2	Lean DToss-up	R+3	—
HD-45	● Randy Davis● Sarah LightnerINC	1%99% <1%>99%	R+21.5R+30.0	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-46D flipD flip	● Jan Maino● Kathy SchmaltzINC	63%37% 60%40%	D+2.2D+2.3	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
HD-47	● Carrie RheingansINC● Justin Griffis	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.1D+27.3	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-48	● Jennifer ConlinINC● Brian Ignatowski	97%3% 83%17%	D+15.1D+9.2	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-49	● Dan Pelchat● Ann BollinINCAlso: Trevor Step (L)	24%76% 29%71%	R+5.0R+5.2	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-50	● Cassie Canedo● Jason WoolfordINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.5R+27.6	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-51	● Stacey McDuffie● Matt MaddockINC	6%94% 7%93%	R+11.3R+14.7	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-52	● Brendan Leddy● Mike HarrisINC	7%93% 11%89%	R+10.9R+11.5	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-53	● Brenda CarterINC● Melissa Schultz	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.8D+35.8	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
HD-54D flipD flip	● Sarah Pounds● Roman Gaskey	89%11% 71%29%	D+9.1D+5.2	Likely DLean D	Even	—
HD-55D flipD flip	● Alex Hawkins● Mark TisdelINC	70%30% 73%27%	D+4.0D+5.8	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-56	● Sharon MacDonellINC● Ashok Baddi	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+22.9D+20.1	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-57	● Tom Turner● Thomas KuhnINC	11%89% 13%87%	R+9.0R+10.9	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-58	● Katrina Manetta● Ron RobinsonINC	24%76% 23%77%	R+4.9R+6.9	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-59	● Jason Robbins● Sylvia Grot	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.5R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-60	● Amy Gray● Joseph AragonaINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+15.2R+17.0	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
HD-61Flip risk	● Denise MentzerINC● Robert Wojtowicz	87%13% 51%49%	D+8.7D+0.4	Likely DToss-up	R+4	—
HD-62	● Matthew Smith● Alicia St. GermaineINC	23%77% 27%73%	R+5.3R+5.7	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-63	● Jamie Sonneberger● Pamela Hornberger	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.4R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-64	● Ken Heuvelman● Joseph G. PavlovINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+17.0R+18.9	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-65	● James O'Brien● Jaime GreeneINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.7R+41.9	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-66	● Ned Zimmer● Josh SchriverINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.5R+27.0	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-67	● Leslie Getz● Phil GreenINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.4R+20.9	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-68	● Matt Schlinker● David MartinINCAlso: Joe McHugh (I)	38%62% 34%66%	R+2.2R+3.7	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-69	● Jasper MartusINC● Patrick DuvendeckAlso: Adam Blake Childress (L)	99%1% 93%7%	D+19.7D+14.2	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
HD-70	● Cynthia NeeleyINC● Larry Hutchinson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.9D+61.7	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
HD-71	● Stephen Schlaack● Brian BeGoleINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.5R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-72	● Thomas Ryan● Mike MuellerINC	11%89% 17%83%	R+8.7R+8.9	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-73	● Julie BrixieINC● Joshua Rockey	99%1% 93%7%	D+19.5D+14.5	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
HD-74	● Harold Pope● Clinton Tarver	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.2D+39.8	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
HD-75	● Penelope TsernoglouINC● Frank Lambert	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.0D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-76	● Angela WitwerINC● Bill Kaiser	94%6% 68%32%	D+11.8D+4.3	Likely DLean D	Even	—
HD-77	● Emily DievendorfINC● Sally NeltonAlso: Jennifer Long (L)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.2D+27.5	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-78	● Rachel Gross● Brandon StrongAlso: Ben DeJong (L)	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.8R+26.3	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-79	● Zach Abbott● Angela RigasINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+19.9R+23.1	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-80	● Lily Cheng-Schulting● Doug Lee	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.7D+23.7	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-81	● Stephen WoodenINC● Holly DeBoer	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.6D+19.8	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-82	● Kristian GrantINC● Ryan Malinoski	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.0D+57.9	Solid DSolid D	D+53	—
HD-83	● John Wesley FitzgeraldINC● Cindy Ramirez	99%1% 93%7%	D+19.0D+14.5	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-84	● Khristian Silvis● Drew Jake Robbins	99%1% 95%5%	D+18.1D+16.3	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
HD-85	● Richard Abraham● Bradley SlaghINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.3R+28.7	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-86D flipD flip	● Joseph McClusky● Nancy DeBoerINC	63%37% 72%28%	D+2.5D+5.4	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-87	● Will SnyderINC● Cody Chipman	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.5D+21.7	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-88	● Kiel Reid● Greg VanWoerkomINC	30%70% 36%64%	R+3.6R+3.3	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-89	● Meegan Zickus● Joe Moss	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.9R+28.2	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-90	● Rachel Crowther● Lynn Afendoulis	5%95% 8%92%	R+11.9R+13.3	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-91	● Frank Lafata● Pat OutmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.6R+32.4	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-92	● Luke Del Castillo● Jerry NeyerINC	14%86% 22%78%	R+7.8R+7.3	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-93	● Serenity Hope Salak● Tim KellyINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.0R+26.7	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-94	● Amos O'NealINC● Don Sugg	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.3D+36.8	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-95	● AnnMarie Horseman● Bill G. SchuetteINC	4%96% 10%90%	R+13.5R+12.4	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-96	● Chris Girard● Timothy BesonINC	16%84% 24%76%	R+7.2R+6.6	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-97	● Jack Bader● Briar Bearss	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.0R+25.9	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-98	● Keith Brusseau● Gregory AlexanderINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.9R+41.8	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-99	● David Forgione● Mike HoadleyINCAlso: Steven Jacob Lull (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.5R+34.0	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-100	● Tracy Ruell● Tom KunseINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.5R+32.6	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-101	● Christopher Crain● Jaxon Deur	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.4R+32.8	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-102	● Angel Coon● Curt VanderWallINCAlso: Shawn Orton (L)	2%98% 6%94%	R+15.0R+15.5	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-103	● Betsy CoffiaINC● Edwin DeanAlso: Michael Gorbe (L)	98%2% 84%16%	D+16.7D+9.3	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-104	● Mitchell Distin● John RothINCAlso: Alexander Jarvis (L)	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.4R+21.9	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-105	● Rachel Longendyke-Teeter● Ken BortonINCAlso: Frank Tillman (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.4R+35.1	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-106	● Mary Hamilton● Cam CavittINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.0R+29.6	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-107	● Melissa Perron● Parker FairbairnINC	5%95% 11%89%	R+12.5R+12.0	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-108	● Rachel Keys● Larry Johnson	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.2R+27.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-109D flipD flip	● Anna Aho Rink● Karl BohnakINC	70%30% 68%32%	D+3.8D+4.3	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-110	● Brian Irizarry● Gregory MarkkanenINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.8R+18.9	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).