Democratic
Garlin Gilchrist
Lieutenant governor of Michigan (2019–present) (previously ran for governor)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Michigan › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan Secretary of State
Gilchrist is clearly favored to win: Gilchrist wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Gilchrist (D)
90%
chance of winning
Forlini (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Gilchrist is favored to win: Gilchrist wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Gilchrist (D)
80%
chance of winning
Forlini (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Anthony Forlini
Macomb County clerk (2020–present)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.3Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 18.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gilchrist | Forlini | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal/Beacon Research for Michigan Enjoyer | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 600 LV | 41 | 38 | D+3 | D+3.2 |
| Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | 42 | 36 | D+6 | D+12.6 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The state
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,077,761
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 13%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,553,169 two-party votes · R+1.4 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%
2022
4,416,031 votes · D+14.2✓ Jocelyn Benson (D)55.8%
Kristina Elaine Karamo (R)41.9%
Gregory Scott Stempfle (L)1.2%
Christine C Schwartz (OTH)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,453,892 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2018
4,184,026 votes · D+9.2✓ Jocelyn Benson (D)52.9%
Mary Treder Lang (R)44.0%
Gregory Scott Stempfle (L)2.0%
Robert Gale (OTH)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
4,548,382 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%