Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%no change
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (0 D since Sep 18)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (−0.1 D since Sep 18)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 19
Saturday, September 19, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 8
- Compared with
- Sep 18
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 18. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 94%no change
Expected seats 234.9 D · 200.1 R (−0.1 D since Sep 18)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.D 89%no change
Expected seats 235.1 D · 199.9 R (−0.1 D since Sep 18)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 70%no change
Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (−0.1 D since Sep 18)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.D 75%no change
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (0 D since Sep 18)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.5no change
Forecast environment
D+8.7no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 18 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in LouisianaLikely R → Solid R
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 18 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in LouisianaLikely R → Solid R
Statewide offices 1 change
- Texas Lieutenant GovernorLean R → Likely R
New polls
8 polls new since Sep 18, in 8 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Louisiana | Hart Research Associates for Davis' campaignD sponsor | Sep 17–Sep 19 | 500 LV | D 44 · R 48 | R+4 | bsky.app ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America PAC, which supports RepublicansR sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 643 LV | D 43 · R 44 | R+1 | washingtonreporter.news ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Texas Southern University | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | D 47 · R 46 | D+1 | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America PAC, which supports RepublicansR sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 643 LV | D 42 · R 41 | D+1 | washingtonreporter.news ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Texas Southern University | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | D 45 · R 49 | R+4 | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Texas Lieutenant Governor | Texas Southern University | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | D 41 · R 47 | R+6 | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Texas Attorney General | Texas Southern University | Sep 15–Sep 19 | 1,800 LV | D 42 · R 47 | R+5 | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Texas's 9th District | PPP for Gutierrez's campaignD sponsor | Sep 18–Sep 19 | — V | D 39 · R 45 | R+6 | x.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 18.