Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 11)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 66%no change
Expected seats 51.6 D · 48.4 R (0 D since Sep 11)
D 66%, 66% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 12
Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 6
- Compared with
- Sep 11
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 11. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 93%no change
Expected seats 233.8 D · 201.2 R (0 D since Sep 11)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.D 87%no change
Expected seats 234.2 D · 200.8 R (+0.2 D since Sep 11)
D 87%, 87% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 76%no change
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (+0.1 D since Sep 11)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.D 78%no change
Expected seats 27.7 D · 22.3 R (0 D since Sep 11)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.8no change
Forecast environment
D+8.2no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 11.
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 11 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
6 polls new since Sep 11, in 5 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Alaska | Alaska Survey Research | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,352 LV | D 48 · R 44 | D+4 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Alaska | Alaska Survey Research | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,352 LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Georgia | Trafalgar GroupR sponsor | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 1,091 LV | D 49 · R 43 | D+6 | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| Tennessee Governor | TargetSmart for The Progress Fund, which supports Green | Sep 9–Sep 12 | 600 LV | D 36 · R 45 | R+9 | static1.squarespace.com ↗ |
| Maine's 2nd District | Impact Research for the House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD sponsor | Sep 8–Sep 12 | 500 LV | D 49 · R 49 | Even | x.com ↗ |
| New Jersey's 7th District | StimSight Research for InsiderNJ | Sep 8–Sep 12 | 498 LV | D 47 · R 42 | D+5 | insidernj.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 11.