Pennsylvania · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives?

All 203 seats are on the ballot. 102 seats make a majority. 136 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are clearly favored to control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (93%).

Democrats

93%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 109.380% range 102–117
Avg. R seats: 93.780% range 86–101
Now: 103 D · 100 R203 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (136+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are clearly favored to control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (86%).

Democrats

86%

chance of control

Republicans

14%

Avg. D seats: 109.580% range 100–119
Avg. R seats: 93.580% range 84–103
Now: 103 D · 100 R203 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (136+ seats): under 1% each.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 203 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

7 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 2 D→R. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

9 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D, 2 D→R. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Likely D5

Lean D4

Toss-up5

Lean R5

Likely R13

Likely D16

Lean D8

Toss-up7

Lean R7

Likely R15

Solid R68

Show 62 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-41Bradford T. ChambersBrett MillerFlip riskD flip51%Rep.61%Dem. HD-40Jonathan C. LloydNatalie StuckFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.53%Rep. HD-44Hadley B. HaasValerie GaydosFlip riskD flip53%Dem.62%Dem. HD-13Madelyn G. AlvarinoJohn LawrenceFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.60%Dem. HD-143Timothy L. HayesShelby LabsFlip riskFlip risk59%Rep.53%Dem. HD-142Kristin EganJoe HoganD flipD flip60%Dem.69%Dem. HD-137Jeffrey M. WarrenJoe EmrickD flipD flip69%Dem.76%Dem. HD-187Rachel CuevasGary Day72%Rep.61%Rep. HD-88Sara M. AgertonJeff ClarkD flipD flip72%Dem.75%Dem. HD-147Margaret BurkeDonna Scheuren75%Rep.61%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-160Elizabeth MoroCraig WilliamsD flipD flip89%to flip87%to flip HD-72Frank BurnsPhilip RiceR flipR flip89%to flip99%to flip HD-18Bryan F. Allen Jr.Kathleen TomlinsonD flipD flip78%to flip75%to flip HD-12Brandon DukesScott TimkoR flipR flip77%to flip91%to flip HD-88Sara M. AgertonJeff ClarkD flipD flip72%to flip75%to flip HD-137Jeffrey M. WarrenJoe EmrickD flipD flip69%to flip76%to flip HD-142Kristin EganJoe HoganD flipD flip60%to flip69%to flip HD-13Madelyn G. AlvarinoJohn LawrenceFlip riskFlip risk55%to flip60%to flip HD-44Hadley B. HaasValerie GaydosFlip riskD flip53%to flip62%to flip HD-41Bradford T. ChambersBrett MillerFlip riskD flip49%to flip61%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

203 races, 57 without a contest between the major parties.

203 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Pat HarkinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
HD-2	● Bob MerskiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+7	—
HD-3	● Ryan BizzarroINC● Donna Reese	97%3% 79%21%	D+16.1D+7.7	Solid DLean D	D+2	—
HD-4	● Kathryn A. Divittorio● Jacob BantaINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.4R+19.7	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-5	● Andres Ruben Flammer Santiago● Eric WeaknechtINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.8R+20.4	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-6	● Michael C. Walker● Brad RoaeINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.0R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-7	● Chris Ford● Parke WentlingINC	4%96% 16%84%	R+15.5R+9.2	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-8	● Richard E. Telesz● Aaron BernstineINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.1R+35.7	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-9	● Shay Micco● Marla BrownINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+25.3R+22.3	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-10	● Amen BrownINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+85	—
HD-11	● No Democrat● Marci MustelloINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-12R flipR flip	● Brandon DukesINC● Scott Timko	23%77% 9%91%	R+5.8R+13.4	Lean RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-13Flip riskFlip risk	● Madelyn G. Alvarino● John LawrenceINC	55%45% 60%40%	D+0.9D+2.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
HD-14	● Bradley Jacob Young● Roman KozakINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+20.7R+20.1	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-15	● Sydney Louise Speicher● Joshua KailINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.3R+28.0	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-16Flip risk	● Robert MatzieINC● John Costanza	85%15% 52%48%	D+8.1D+0.6	Likely DToss-up	R+7	—
HD-17	● No Democrat● Timothy BonnerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+48	—
HD-18D flipD flip	● Bryan F. Allen Jr.● Kathleen TomlinsonINC	78%22% 75%25%	D+5.5D+6.2	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-19	● Aerion AbneyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+64	—
HD-20	● Emily KinkeadINC● Joseph Aguglia	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.1D+25.2	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-21	● Lindsay PowellINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-22	● Ce-Ce Gerlach● Robert Smith Jr.	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.6D+28.5	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-23	● Dan FrankelINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+65	—
HD-24	● La'Tasha MayesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+79	—
HD-25	● Brandon MarkosekINC● Amy Noone	99%1% 96%4%	D+22.1D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-26	● Paul FrielINC● Samantha L. Horosky	99%1% 96%4%	D+21.9D+18.2	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-27	● Dan DeasyINC● Ed Brosky	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+35.7D+29.5	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-28Flip risk	● Jeremy Ferderber● Jeremy ShafferINC	24%76% 42%58%	R+5.8R+2.0	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-29	● Tim BrennanINC● Sean Duffy	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.0D+20.5	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-30	● Arvind VenkatINC● Libby Blackburn	98%2% 91%9%	D+18.2D+13.5	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-31	● Perry WarrenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-32	● Joe McAndrewINC● Gary Motor	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.4D+35.5	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-33	● Mandy SteeleINC● Michael Hammill	98%2% 89%11%	D+16.6D+11.6	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-34	● Abigail SalisburyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+63	—
HD-35	● Dan GoughnourINC● James Edwards	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.0D+23.1	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-36	● Jessica BenhamINC● Timothy McCune	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.2D+37.0	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
HD-37	● Chad William Gleissl● Melinda FeeINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.2R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-38	● John InglisINC● Stone Sobieralski	97%3% 88%12%	D+16.0D+11.5	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-39	● Dylan Altemara● Andrew KuzmaINC	7%93% 11%89%	R+11.0R+11.8	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-40Flip riskFlip risk	● Jonathan C. Lloyd● Natalie Stuck	49%51% 47%53%	R+0.2R+0.7	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
HD-41Flip riskD flip	● Bradford T. Chambers● Brett MillerINC	49%51% 61%39%	R+0.2D+2.6	Toss-upLean D	R+5	—
HD-42	● Jennifer MazzoccoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
HD-43	● Bryan K. Peirson● Keith GreinerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.1R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-44Flip riskD flip	● Hadley B. Haas● Valerie GaydosINC	53%47% 62%38%	D+0.6D+2.8	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
HD-45	● Brittany Bloam● James Julius	97%3% 90%10%	D+14.2D+12.5	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-46	● Michael Crossey● Jason OrtitayINC	9%91% 19%81%	R+10.3R+8.2	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-47	● Edward Lee Ritter● Joseph D'OrsieINC	4%96% 8%92%	R+13.5R+13.7	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-48	● Rebecca Mactaggart● Timothy O'NealINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+21.7R+17.5	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-49	● Ismail Smith-Wade-ElINC● Venessa Acosta	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.9D+38.7	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-50	● Lois Bower-Bjornson● Ben Humble	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.2R+30.2	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-51	● No Democrat● Charity Grimm KrupaINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+32	—
HD-52	● No Democrat● Ryan WarnerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+42	—
HD-53	● Steve MalagariINC● Yanni Lambros	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.5D+19.3	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-54	● Greg ScottINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+38	—
HD-55	● Davon Tyrone Magwood● Jill CooperINC	2%98% 6%94%	R+17.0R+15.6	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
HD-56	● No Democrat● Brian RaselINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-57	● Robert B. Frances● Eric NelsonINC	1%99% 6%94%	R+20.3R+15.8	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
HD-58	● Cherri Rogers● Eric DavanzoINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.7R+26.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-59	● Jordan Omlor● Leslie RossiINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.8R+29.5	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-60	● Dustyn A. Dorn● Abigail MajorINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.3R+32.0	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-61	● Liz HanbidgeINC● Angela Illingworth	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.9D+28.6	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-62	● Trajan William Jones● James StruzziINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.9R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-63	● Andrew L. Harbaugh● Joshua BashlineINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.5R+51.2	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-64	● Amanda Shaffer● Robert James	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.2R+35.9	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-65	● Destiny Kay Patricia Howard● Kathy RappINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.5R+36.1	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-66	● Lisa M. Gourley● Brian SmithINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.5R+54.4	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
HD-67	● Zachary R. Ware● Martin CauserINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.2R+46.4	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-68	● Joseph Quentin Gee● Clinton OwlettINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.7R+48.5	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-69	● No Democrat● Carl MetzgarINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+59	—
HD-70	● Matt BradfordINC● Chris Martino	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.5D+22.4	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-71	● No Democrat● James RigbyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+45	—
HD-72R flipR flip	● Frank BurnsINC● Philip Rice	11%89% 1%99%	R+10.4R+24.0	Likely RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-73	● No Democrat● Dallas KephartINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-74	● Dan K. WilliamsINC● Lorenzo Kelly	99%1% 96%4%	D+19.7D+17.5	Solid DSolid D	D+10	—
HD-75	● Kimberly Kohlhepp● Michael ArmaniniINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.2R+42.5	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-76	● Elizabeth Sara Eggler● Stephanie BorowiczINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.8R+30.3	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-77	● Scott ConklinINC● Michelle Schellberg	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.0D+23.0	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-78	● No Democrat● Jesse TopperINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+70	—
HD-79	● Caleb McCoy● Andrea VerobishINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.8R+25.7	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-80	● Sarah Holland● Scott BargerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.1R+47.1	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-81	● Caleb J. Donahue● Richard IrvinINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.3R+48.5	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-82	● Paul TakacINC● Kirsten McTernan	98%2% 90%10%	D+17.9D+12.6	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-83	● No Democrat● Jamie FlickINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-84	● No Democrat● Joseph HammINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-85	● No Democrat● David RoweINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+42	—
HD-86	● Wendy Morgan● Perry StambaughINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.4R+47.0	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
HD-87	● Jessica Lynne St. Clair● Thomas KutzINC	15%85% 28%72%	R+7.7R+5.3	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-88D flipD flip	● Sara M. Agerton● Jeff Clark	72%28% 75%25%	D+4.1D+6.3	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-89	● Shannon Michael Jackson● Robert KauffmanINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.6R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-90	● No Democrat● Chad ReichardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+50	—
HD-91	● Kathleen Pratt● Dan MoulINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.5R+23.5	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-92	● Krista Jean Anderson● Marc AndersonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.9R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-93	● Melissa Ann Barnes● Michael JonesINC	<1%>99% 3%97%	R+23.4R+20.1	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-94	● Konnor John-Richard Grimek● Wendy FinkINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+29.2R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-95	● Carol Hill-EvansINC● Jasmine Rivera	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.7D+31.6	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-96	● Nikki RiveraINC● Babita Rusyn	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.5D+29.1	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-97	● Jessica Lee Branas● Steven MentzerINC	9%91% 17%83%	R+10.0R+8.9	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-98	● Hugh Stockton Hyder-Darlington● Nicky Woods	3%97% 4%96%	R+14.4R+17.9	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-99	● Ethan Gabrick● David ZimmermanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.1R+35.9	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
HD-100	● No Democrat● Dave Nissley	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+51	—
HD-101	● No Democrat● John SchlegelINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+23	—
HD-102	● Matt Duvall● Russel DiamondINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.9R+35.8	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-103	● Nate DavidsonINC● Cindi Ward	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.2D+32.8	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-104	● Dave MadsenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-105	● Justin FlemingINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
HD-106Flip risk	● Anju Singh● Thomas MehaffieINC	19%81% 40%60%	R+6.8R+2.2	Likely RToss-up	R+10	—
HD-107	● Ryan T. Coleman● Joanne StehrINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+41.9	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-108	● Amder L. Neidig● Michael Stender Jr.INC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.1R+25.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-109	● Justin Hummel● Robert LeadbeterINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.4R+24.8	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-110	● Pamela J. Hemann● Tina PickettINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.6R+34.6	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-111	● Kyle T. Devlin● Jonathan FritzINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.3R+36.4	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-112	● Kyle MullinsINC● Joseph Sabia Jr.	99%1% 84%16%	D+20.7D+9.5	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-113	● Kyle DonahueINC● Lucas O'Brien	99%1% 96%4%	D+25.2D+17.2	Solid DSolid D	D+9	—
HD-114	● Bridget Malloy KosierowskiINC● Logan Lombardo	>99%<1% 95%5%	D+26.3D+16.2	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-115	● Maureen MaddenINC● Richard Szabo	99%1% 94%6%	D+17.0D+15.5	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-116	● No Democrat● Dane Watro Jr.INC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—
HD-117	● Jeremy Benscoter● Jamie WalshINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.7R+35.2	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-118Flip risk	● Jim HaddockINC● John Lombardo	87%13% 53%47%	D+9.1D+0.7	Likely DToss-up	R+7	—
HD-119	● Lauren Elizabeth McCurdy● Alec RyncavageINC	6%94% 16%84%	R+11.6R+9.3	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-120	● Fern Leard● Brenda PughINC	19%81% 33%67%	R+6.2R+4.1	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-121	● Jessica McClay● Michael Harostock III	86%14% 81%19%	D+7.8D+8.3	Likely DLikely D	D+1	—
HD-122	● Christian Bartulovich● Doyle HeffleyINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+29.8R+27.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-123	● John A. Deatrich Jr.● Timothy TwardzikINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.1R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-124	● Tina M. Burns● James BartonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.6R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-125	● Kathryn L. Waters● Joseph KerwinINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.7R+19.3	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-126	● Jacklyn RusnockINC● Miguel Vasquez	98%2% 91%9%	D+17.7D+13.3	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-127	● Manny Guzman Jr.INC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-128	● Andrew Wagner● Mark GillenINC	4%96% 16%84%	R+14.9R+9.7	Solid RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-129	● Johanny Cepeda-FreytizINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+14	—
HD-130	● Eric Bonnett● Melissa Brewer	2%98% 2%98%	R+17.0R+20.5	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-131	● Meriam H. Sabih● Milou MackenzieINC	24%76% 34%66%	R+5.0R+3.9	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-132	● Michael SchlossbergINC● Caren Lowrey	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+29.8D+20.4	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-133	● Jeanne McNeillINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+9	—
HD-134	● Peter SchweyerINC● Miriam Alicia Maldonado	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+29.9D+22.0	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-135	● Steve SamuelsonINC● Joseph F. Poplawski	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.0D+34.9	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-136	● Robert L. Freeman● Pilar M. Campisi	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.8D+20.2	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-137D flipD flip	● Jeffrey M. Warren● Joe EmrickINC	69%31% 76%24%	D+3.5D+6.6	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-138	● Jared Bitting● Ann FloodINC	2%98% 8%92%	R+15.5R+14.0	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-139	● Dominique N. Azzollini● Jeff OlsommerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.6R+26.4	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-140	● Jim ProkopiakINC● Michael J. Gettis	98%2% 91%9%	D+16.4D+13.2	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-141	● Tina DavisINC● Kenneth James Velez	99%1% 91%9%	D+19.8D+13.3	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-142D flipD flip	● Kristin Egan● Joe HoganINC	60%40% 69%31%	D+1.9D+4.7	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
HD-143Flip riskFlip risk	● Timothy L. Hayes● Shelby LabsINC	41%59% 53%47%	R+1.6D+0.8	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
HD-144	● Brian MunroeINC● Michael J. Murphy	94%6% 78%22%	D+12.0D+7.2	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
HD-145	● Les Mavus● Craig StaatsINC	9%91% 18%82%	R+9.5R+8.7	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-146	● Joe CiresiINC● Jeffrey T. Fartro	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+22.3D+18.8	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-147	● Margaret Burke● Donna ScheurenINC	25%75% 39%61%	R+4.9R+2.5	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-148	● Megan Griffin-Shelley● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-149	● Tim BriggsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+39	—
HD-150	● Joe WebsterINC● Frank Pastella	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.9D+23.2	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-151	● Melissa CerratoINC● Allen Arthur Anderson	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.8D+28.9	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
HD-152	● Nancy GuenstINC● Eric Maier	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.8D+25.1	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-153	● Ben SanchezINC● Cory L. Toner	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.7D+39.0	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
HD-154	● Napoleon NelsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+60	—
HD-155	● Danielle Friel OttenINC● Greer Heindel	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.2D+22.5	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-156	● Chris PielliINC● Kris R. Vollrath	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.0D+25.9	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-157	● Melissa ShustermanINC● Justin J. Pak	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.2D+31.5	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-158	● Christina SappeyINC● Tina Louise Ayala	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.6D+24.3	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-159	● Carol KazeemINC● Mike Bannon	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+46.4D+43.8	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
HD-160D flipD flip	● Elizabeth Moro● Craig WilliamsINC	89%11% 87%13%	D+9.3D+11.1	Likely DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-161	● Leanne KruegerINC● John Mancinelli Jr.	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.8D+21.0	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-162	● David DellosoINC● Michael E. Murphy	>99%1% 97%3%	D+21.6D+20.0	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-163	● Heather BoydINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
HD-164	● Gina CurryINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+58	—
HD-165	● Jennifer O'MaraINC● Deirdre D. McCleary	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.3D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-166	● Judy Trombetta● Joseph William Walker	>99%<1% >99%1%	D+30.3D+30.7	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-167	● Kristine HowardINC● Joseph M Lewis	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.3D+28.3	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-168	● Lisa BorowskiINC● Kathryn M.L. Buckley	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.5D+26.9	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-169	● Austin L. Graham● Kate KlunkINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+28.3R+26.3	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-170	● Robert N. Gurtcheff II● Martina WhiteINC	6%94% 28%72%	R+13.7R+5.5	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-171	● John R. Zangari● Kerry BenninghoffINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.4R+31.6	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-172	● Sean DoughertyINC● Wallace J. Quinlan	95%5% 81%19%	D+13.2D+8.4	Solid DLikely D	D+1	—
HD-173	● Pat GallagherINC● William J. Griffin Jr.	99%1% 92%8%	D+22.9D+14.0	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-174	● Ed NeilsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+5	—
HD-175	● Mary IsaacsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+68	—
HD-176	● Thomas Kucer● Jack RaderINC	8%92% 13%87%	R+10.1R+10.6	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-177	● Joseph HohensteinINC● Robyn L. Bird	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+37.6D+32.5	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
HD-178	● Monica Weninger● Kristin MarcellINC	14%86% 24%76%	R+8.2R+6.6	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-179	● Jason DawkinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+63	—
HD-180	● Jose GiralINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-181	● Malcolm KenyattaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+82	—
HD-182	● Ben WaxmanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+76	—
HD-183	● Deirdre J. Kamber● Zach MakoINC	2%98% 7%93%	R+15.5R+14.4	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
HD-184	● Elizabeth FiedlerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
HD-185	● Regina YoungINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
HD-186	● Jordan A. HarrisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+78	—
HD-187	● Rachel Cuevas● Gary DayINC	28%72% 39%61%	R+4.1R+2.6	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-188	● Rick KrajewskiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+87	—
HD-189	● Tarah ProbstINC● Danica L. Hartenfels	99%1% 95%5%	D+19.0D+16.0	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
HD-190	● G. Roni GreenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+90	—
HD-191	● Joanna McClintonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+88	—
HD-192	● Morgan CephasINC● Tiffany Brown	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+76.6D+91.5	Solid DSolid D	D+88	—
HD-193	● Todd Crawley● Catherine WallenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.9R+31.9	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-194	● Tarik KhanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+56	—
HD-195	● Sierra McNeil● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+85	—
HD-196	● Ronald Ruman● George MargetasINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.6R+27.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-197	● Danilo BurgosINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+69	—
HD-198	● Darisha ParkerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+87	—
HD-199	● Tawanda Hunter Stallworth● Barbara GleimINC	8%92% 17%83%	R+10.4R+9.1	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-200	● Chris Johnson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+91	—
HD-201	● Andre CarrollINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+91	—
HD-202	● Jared SolomonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-203	● Anthony A. BellmonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+58	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).