Democratic
Doug Jones
Former U.S. senator (2018–2021)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Alabama › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama Governor
Tuberville is clearly favored to win: Tuberville wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Jones (D)
7%
chance of winning
Tuberville (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+11.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 3in our database
Tuberville is clearly favored to win: Tuberville wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Jones (D)
8%
chance of winning
Tuberville (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Tommy Tuberville
U.S. senator (2021–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Alabama state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jones | Tuberville | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR-sponsored | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | 37 | 50 | R+13 | R+9.2 |
| yes. every kid. | Jul 8–Jul 11 | 601 LV | 41 | 49 | R+8 | R+8.5 |
| CygnalR-sponsored | Nov 12–Nov 13 | 605 LV | 34 | 53 | R+19 | R+18.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 25, 2026.
The state
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,086,768
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 26%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,235,028 two-party votes · R+30.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Kamala Harris (D)34.6%
2022
1,415,283 votes · R+39.3✓ Kay Ivey (R)66.9%
Yolanda Rochelle Flowers (D)29.2%
James "jimmy" Blake (L)3.2%
Write-In (—)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,290,794 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Joe Biden (D)37.1%
2018
1,717,817 votes · R+19.1✓ Kay Ivey (R)59.5%
Walt Maddox (D)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,047,802 two-party votes · R+28.7 · R+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.6%
2014
1,178,018 votes · R+27.4✓ Robert Bentley (R)63.7%
Parker Griffith (D)36.3%
2010
1,486,182 votes · R+15.8✓ Robert Bentley (R)57.9%
Ron Sparks (D)42.1%
2006
1,238,154 votes · R+16.0✓ Robert Riley (R)58.0%
Lucy Baxley (D)42.0%
2002
1,341,330 votes · R+0.2✓ Robert Riley (R)50.1%
Don Siegelman (D)49.9%