Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 76%no change
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (0 D since Sep 23)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.D 70%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.1 D since Sep 23)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 24
Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 16
- Compared with
- Sep 23
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 23. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 95%no change
Expected seats 235.9 D · 199.1 R (0 D since Sep 23)
D 95%, 95% Democratic.D 90%no change
Expected seats 235.8 D · 199.2 R (+0.3 D since Sep 23)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 73%no change
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (−0.1 D since Sep 23)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 76%no change
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (0 D since Sep 23)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8no change
Forecast environment
D+9.0no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 23.
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 23 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
16 polls new since Sep 23, in 12 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Alaska | Trafalgar GroupR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 1,079 LV | D 46 · R 47 | R+1 | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 678 LV | D 47 · R 42 | D+5 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 678 LV | D 46 · R 40 | D+6 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Michigan | Big Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 725 RV | D 44 · R 39 | D+5 | bigdatapoll.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Montana | American Pulse Research for KULR-TV | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 604 LV | Ind. 26 · R 45 | R+19 | montanarightnow.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | Stratus Intelligence for Texans for a Conservative MajorityR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 856 LV | D 48 · R 48 | Even | politico.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Stratus IntelligenceR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 865 LV | D 45 · R 50 | R+5 | politico.com ↗ |
| Texas Lieutenant Governor | Stratus IntelligenceR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 865 LV | D 44 · R 49 | R+5 | politico.com ↗ |
| Texas Attorney General | Stratus IntelligenceR sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 865 LV | D 42 · R 47 | R+5 | politico.com ↗ |
| Colorado's 4th District | Impact Research for the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC, which opposes BoebertD sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 24 | 403 LV | D 40 · R 45 | R+5 | drive.google.com ↗ |
| Montana's 1st District | American Pulse for the NonStop Local | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 314 LV | D 45 · R 46 | R+1 | montanarightnow.com ↗ |
| Ohio's 15th District | Hart Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | D 46 · R 45 | D+1 | x.com ↗ |
Show 4 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah's 2nd District | Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 10–Sep 24 | 515 LV | D 34 · R 39 | R+5 | utahdebatecommission.org ↗ |
| Virginia's 5th District | Expedition Strategies for Perriello's campaignD sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 24 | 400 LV | D 45 · R 46 | R+1 | punchbowl.news ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Change ResearchD sponsor | Sep 15–Sep 24 | 2,021 RV | D 46 · R 39 | D+7 | changeresearch.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | GBAO for Third WayD sponsor | Sep 17–Sep 24 | 2,000 RV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | thirdway.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 23.