Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 69%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.7 D · 48.3 R (+0.1 D since Sep 1)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.D 59%▲ D +2
Expected seats 51.1 D · 48.9 R (+0.1 D since Sep 1)
D 59%, 59% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 2
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
- Calls changed
- 7
- Party changes
- 7
- New polls
- 12
- Compared with
- Sep 1
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 1. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 90%▲ D +1
Expected seats 231.6 D · 203.4 R (+0.5 D since Sep 1)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.D 83%▲ D +1
Expected seats 231.3 D · 203.7 R (+0.6 D since Sep 1)
D 83%, 83% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 65%▲ D +2
Expected seats 26.5 D · 23.5 R (+0.2 D since Sep 1)
D 65%, 65% Democratic.D 69%▲ D +2
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (+0.2 D since Sep 1)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.2D +0.4
Forecast environment
D+7.5D +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 1 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | D trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
7 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 1 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 6 changes in 6 chambers
Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-122Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Iowa House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-40Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Ohio House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-17Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Oklahoma House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-83Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
South Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-102Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Washington House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-25Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
12 polls new since Sep 1, in 5 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Minnesota | TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,494 RV | D 40 · R 38 | D+2 | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Minnesota | TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,201 LV | D 44 · R 42 | D+2 | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| Minnesota Governor | TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,494 RV | D 47 · R 37 | D+10 | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| Minnesota Governor | TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR sponsor | Aug 31–Sep 2 | 1,201 LV | D 50 · R 40 | D+10 | tippinsights.com ↗ |
| Nebraska Governor | Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors AssociationD sponsor | Sep 1–Sep 2 | 559 RV | D 31 · R 32 | R+1 | democraticgovernors.org ↗ |
| New Mexico's 2nd District | SurveyUSA | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 554 LV | D 46 · R 43 | D+3 | kob.com ↗ |
| New York's 21st District | Impact Research for Gendebien’s campaignD sponsor | Aug 30–Sep 2 | 500 LV | D 44 · R 47 | R+3 | politico.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | CygnalR sponsor | Sep 1–Sep 2 | 1,500 LV | D 51 · R 42 | D+9 | cygn.al ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata/Financial Times | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 1,837 LV | D 52 · R 45 | D+7 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata/Financial Times | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 1,837 RV | D 51 · R 44 | D+7 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata/Financial Times | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 1,914 RV | D 49 · R 42 | D+7 | focaldata.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Focaldata/Financial Times | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 2,178 A | D 46 · R 41 | D+5 | focaldata.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 1.