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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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California › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

California Governor

Top two

Becerra is very likely to win: Becerra wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Becerra (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hilton (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+21.1
80% of outcomes
D+13 to D+30
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
12in our database

Becerra is very likely to win: Becerra wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Becerra (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hilton (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+21.9
80% of outcomes
D+13 to D+32
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
12in our database

Range of outcomes

D+21.1R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+21.9R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How this race is decided

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Becerra >99%Hilton <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Becerra >99%Hilton <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Xavier Becerra

Former U.S. secretary of health and human services (2021–2025) and attorney general of California (2017–2021)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
California state offices
−0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+32.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+26.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in California andlook-alike placesD+23.6Polling average11 polls, latest Oct 1D+20.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+21.1Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+21.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-5.39
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. D+20.4May 24Nov 3
All 12 polls
PollsterDatesSampleBecerraHiltonMarginAdjusted
Manhattan InstituteR-sponsoredSep 24–Oct 11,000 LV5739D+18D+19.9
Independent Voter ProjectSep 23–Sep 282,906 LV4838D+10D+13.8
Berkeley IGS for the Los Angeles TimesSep 15–Sep 204,512 LV5833D+25D+27.1
SurveyUSA for KGTV and The San Diego Union-TribuneSep 15–Sep 20742 LV5533D+22D+23.5
UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/PoliticoSep 8–Sep 142,418 RV4834D+14D+21.0
UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/PoliticoSep 8–Sep 141,983 LV5436D+18D+21.0
PPICSep 4–Sep 101,103 LV6038D+22D+22.4
Berkeley IGS for the Los Angeles TimesAug 3–Aug 92,310 LV5537D+18
PPICJun 29–Jul 61,003 LV6136D+25
Kreate StrategiesJun 13–Jun 17900 LV5833D+25
CEPP for CSU Long Beach-USC-Cal Poly Pomona California Elections and PolicyMay 23–May 26735 LV5835D+23
Berkeley IGS for the Los Angeles TimesMay 19–May 248,578 RV5231D+21

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.

The state

Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+32.3D+30.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+29.8D+25.3 vs. nation2024 presidentD+20.8D+22.3 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
39,287,377
Adults with a B.A.+
37%
White, no degree
20%of adults
  • White 34%
  • Hispanic 40%
  • Black 5%
  • Asian 15%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

15,357,876 two-party votes · D+20.8 · D+22.3 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.4%
Donald Trump (R)39.6%

2022

10,932,079 votes · D+18.4
✓ Gavin Newsom (D)59.2%
Brian Dahle (R)40.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

17,116,679 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+25.3 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%

2018

12,464,235 votes · D+23.9
✓ Gavin Newsom (D)61.9%
John H Cox (R)38.1%

2016 President Vote in this state

13,237,598 two-party votes · D+32.3 · D+30.0 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.1%
Donald Trump (R)33.9%

2014

7,317,581 votes · D+19.9
✓ Edmund G. Brown (D)60.0%
Neel Kashkari (R)40.0%

2010

10,094,822 votes · D+13.6
✓ Jerry Brown (D)53.8%
Meg Whitman (R)40.9%
Chelene Nightingale (I)1.6%
Dale Ogden (L)1.5%
Laura Wells (G)1.3%

2006

8,679,416 votes · R+17.9
✓ Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)55.9%
Phil Angelides (D)38.9%
Peter Miguel Camejo (G)2.4%
Art Olivier (L)1.3%
Janice Jordan (PF)0.8%

2003 special

8,657,916 votes · R+21.4
✓ Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)48.6%
Cruz Bustamante (D)31.5%
Tom McClintock (R)13.4%
Peter Camejo (G)2.8%
Arianna Huffington (I)0.5%