Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (−0.1 D since Sep 17)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 69%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 17)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 18
Friday, September 18, 2026
- Calls changed
- 2
- Party changes
- 2
- New polls
- 12
- Compared with
- Sep 17
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 17. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 94%no change
Expected seats 235.0 D · 200.0 R (−0.4 D since Sep 17)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.D 89%no change
Expected seats 235.2 D · 199.8 R (0 D since Sep 17)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 70%▼ R +2
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (−0.1 D since Sep 17)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.D 75%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (0 D since Sep 17)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.5no change
Forecast environment
D+8.7R +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 17 → now.
Governor races
- Georgia GovernorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia · R trifecta now | D trifecta 1% · R trifecta 37% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 44% |
Every call change
2 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 17 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 1 change
- Georgia GovernorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
Massachusetts House of Representatives · 1 change
- 22nd MiddlesexNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
12 polls new since Sep 17, in 4 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 17.