Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 14)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.1 D since Oct 14)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 15
Thursday, October 15, 2026
- Calls changed
- 1
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 2
- New FEC totals
- 43
- Compared with
- Oct 14
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 14. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (0 D since Oct 14)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.8 D · 196.2 R (0 D since Oct 14)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 72%no change
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (0 D since Oct 14)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Oct 14)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0no change
Forecast environment
D+9.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 14.
Every call change
1 race changed rating or favored party since Oct 14 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
2 polls new since Oct 14, in 2 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Alaska | Public Policy PollingD sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 578 RV | D 48 · R 47 | D+1 |
| Alaska's at-large District | Public Policy PollingD sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 578 RV | Ind. 44 · R 45 | R+1 |
Fundraising
43 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 14. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Womack Republican | Arkansas's 3rd District | $2,302,158 | +$430,397 | $2,397,116 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chuck Fleischmann Republican | Tennessee's 3rd District | $2,710,156 | +$379,353 | $5,087,868 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Michael Rulli Republican | Ohio's 6th District | $1,403,352 | +$290,799 | $461,477 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Diana Harshbarger Republican | Tennessee's 1st District | $1,511,056 | +$236,862 | $1,921,115 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Mike Simpson Republican | Idaho's 2nd District | $1,316,626 | +$198,533 | $284,582 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kelly Thompson Democratic | Indiana's 3rd District | $309,070 | +$172,730 | $104,357 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John Rutherford Republican | Florida's 5th District | $895,398 | +$168,671 | $231,771 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Brian Babin Republican | Texas's 36th District | $1,164,574 | +$157,630 | $911,338 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bennie Thompson Democratic | Mississippi's 2nd District | $928,045 | +$157,074 | $1,358,479 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mark Harris Republican | North Carolina's 8th District | $1,166,673 | +$147,539 | $534,517 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Brad Smith Democratic | Wisconsin's 6th District | $295,060 | +$128,999 | $144,568 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Jim McGovern Democratic | Massachusetts's 2nd District | $984,206 | +$119,530 | $383,328 | Sep 30 (was Aug 12) |
Show 31 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlin Stutzman Republican | Indiana's 3rd District | $959,010 | +$119,445 | $96,096 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Randy Weber Republican | Texas's 14th District | $1,080,828 | +$108,267 | $900,301 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Trever Nehls Republican | Texas's 22nd District | $311,369 | +$104,906 | $86,296 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chellie Pingree Democratic | Maine's 1st District | $531,050 | +$101,416 | $364,581 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kaylee Peterson Democratic | Idaho's 1st District | $271,611 | +$90,587 | $23,706 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mike Croley Democratic | Tennessee's 6th District | $103,762 | +$68,382 | $22,945 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Scott Meyers Republican | California's 30th District | $117,719 | +$59,425 | $30,000 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Missi Hesketh Democratic | Missouri's 7th District | $109,097 | +$58,557 | $59,276 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Rachel Peace Democratic | New Jersey's 4th District | $92,650 | +$58,298 | $9,436 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas Democratic | U.S. Senate in Oklahoma | $106,995 | +$49,836 | $27,221 | Sep 30 (was Aug 5) |
| Beth Farnham Democratic | Pennsylvania's 13th District | $101,192 | +$45,845 | $26,629 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Tyler MacAllister Republican | Massachusetts's 9th District | $212,909 | +$37,787 | $52,272 | Sep 30 (was Aug 12) |
| Jamie Joyce Democratic | California's 12th District | $67,974 | +$36,727 | $5,886 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Everett Wess Democratic | U.S. Senate in Alabama | $116,887 | +$36,332 | $11,260 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ralph Ambrosio Republican | New York's 20th District | $60,560 | +$31,534 | $12,315 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| James Hayes Republican | Pennsylvania's 12th District | $64,891 | +$24,752 | $2,478 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Michael Thurow Independent | Wisconsin's 6th District | $194,756 | +$22,223 | $17,937 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Tony Sabio Republican | Virginia's 8th District | $42,099 | +$20,182 | $16,577 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Ron Eller Republican | Mississippi's 2nd District | $64,125 | +$18,735 | $37,762 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Edgardo Rafael Baez Republican | Texas's 20th District | $66,652 | +$18,116 | $6,120 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kyle Rable Democratic | Texas's 19th District | $46,240 | +$14,964 | $11,989 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Cristian Morales Republican | California's 43rd District | $13,995 | first report | $331 | Sep 30 |
| Barbara Kahl Republican | Oregon's 1st District | $17,320 | +$12,854 | $6,071 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Thurman Bartie Democratic | Texas's 14th District | $36,703 | +$9,880 | $5,102 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Elizabeth Kirtley Democratic | Ohio's 6th District | $10,494 | +$9,262 | $4,823 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Edwin Rivera Republican | Virginia's 3rd District | $14,834 | +$8,279 | $6,165 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Laura Jones Democratic | Texas's 8th District | $29,899 | +$7,919 | $5,570 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Joe Courtney Democratic | Connecticut's 2nd District | $755,424 | −$5,000 | $598,234 | Jun 30 |
| Virginia McIntyre Republican | New York's 25th District | $30,024 | −$2,392 | $9,868 | Jun 30 |
| Jeff Belle Republican | California's 52nd District | $26,323 | +$825 | -$15 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Andy Barr Republican | U.S. Senate in Kentucky | $9,981,044 | −$11 | $2,246,537 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 14.