DemocraticIncumbent
Rhode Island › Rhode Island State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island State Senate District 33
Raptakis is favored to win: Raptakis wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Raptakis (D)
80%
chance of winning
Pierson (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+6.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (67%).
Pierson is favored to win: Pierson wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Raptakis (D)
33%
chance of winning
Pierson (R)
67%
- Average margin
- R+4.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
James P. Pierson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Rhode Island state offices
- +3.9Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+13.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 31.69 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 23,997
- People per km²
- 222
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,732 votes · D+16.7✓ Leonidas P Raptakis (D)58.4%
James P Pierson (R)41.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
8,686 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Kamala Harris (D)42.8%
2022
8,438 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Leonidas P Raptakis (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,347 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Leonidas P Raptakis (D)94.0%
Writein (—)6.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
14,814 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Joe Biden (D)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
12,270 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.0%