DemocraticIncumbent
Wes Moore
Incumbent governor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Maryland › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland Governor
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cox (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- 2in our database
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cox (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Dan Cox
Former state delegate from the 4th district (2019–2023), nominee for Maryland's 8th congressional district in 2016, nominee for governor in 2022, and candidate for MD-6 in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maryland state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.67 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.67 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Moore | Cox | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland, Baltimore County | Sep 22–Sep 27 | 776 LV | 51 | 24 | D+27 | D+36.0 |
| Zenith Research for Blended Public Affairs and Perry Jacobson | Jul 27–Aug 3 | 800 LV | 58 | 31 | D+27 | D+29.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 27, 2026.
The state
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 6,206,011
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 47%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 29%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,938,129 two-party votes · D+29.5 · D+31.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.8%
Donald Trump (R)35.2%
2022
2,005,223 votes · D+33.5✓ Wes Moore (D)64.5%
Dan Cox (R)32.1%
David Lashar (L)1.5%
David Harding (OTH)0.9%
Nancy Wallace (OTH)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,961,437 two-party votes · D+34.1 · D+29.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.0%
Donald Trump (R)33.0%
2018
2,304,512 votes · R+12.0✓ Larry Hogan (R)55.4%
Ben Jealous (D)43.5%
Shawn Quinn (L)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,621,434 two-party votes · D+28.0 · D+25.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.0%
Donald Trump (R)36.0%
2014
1,703,290 votes · R+3.8✓ Larry Hogan (R)51.9%
Anthony G. Brown (D)48.1%
2010
1,821,280 votes · D+14.8✓ Martin O'Malley (D)57.4%
Robert L. Ehrlich Jr (R)42.6%
2006
1,767,743 votes · D+6.6✓ Martin O'Malley (D)53.3%
Robert L. Ehrlich Jr (R)46.7%
2002
1,693,014 votes · R+3.9✓ Robert L. Ehrlich Jr (R)52.0%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D)48.0%