Democratic
Maine › Maine House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine House District 143
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Henkelman (D)
52%
chance of winning
Small (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Henkelman (D)
56%
chance of winning
Small (R)
44%
- Average margin
- D+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eric H Small
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -10.91 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,807
- People per km²
- 111
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
4,504 votes · R+15.0✓ Ann Marie Fredericks (R)57.5%
Kathryn Theresa Manende Hall (D)42.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,048 two-party votes · R+1.2 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Kamala Harris (D)49.4%
2022
3,377 votes · R+5.3✓ Ann Marie Fredericks (R)52.7%
Wesley John Davie (D)47.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
4,698 votes · R+2.9✓ Peggy Jo Stanley (R)51.4%
Charles Patrick Pray (D)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
4,057 two-party votes · R+2.5 · R+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Joe Biden (D)48.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
3,726 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
HD-135Lisa Joy Pratt—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-136Michelle K ConnersJohn Eder80%Rep.75%Rep. HD-141Rebecca L Flood AndrewsMarc A Boisse68%Rep.78%Rep. HD-142Ayn M HanselmannGordon E Frohloff88%Dem.84%Dem. HD-145Kristin T DavisCaleb J ChaseD flipD flip98%Dem.94%Dem. HD-148Margaret A WheelerThomas Arthur Lavigne82%Rep.67%Rep. HD-149Mallory A CookTimothy R Towne98%Dem.94%Dem.