Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 16
Friday, October 16, 2026
- Calls changed
- 0
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 0
- New FEC totals
- 535
- Compared with
- Oct 15
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 15. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 238.8 D · 196.2 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 72%no change
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Oct 15)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0no change
Forecast environment
D+9.5no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 15.
Every call change
0 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 15 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
0 polls new since Oct 15. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Fundraising
535 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 15. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson Democratic | U.S. Senate in Maine | $20,431,280 | first report | $3,956,817 | Sep 30 |
| Mary Peltola Democratic | U.S. Senate in Alaska | $32,623,722 | +$14,078,590 | $3,159,817 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Roy Cooper Democratic | U.S. Senate in North Carolina | $47,190,466 | +$12,214,677 | $12,477,395 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ken Paxton Republican | U.S. Senate in Texas | $19,497,810 | +$10,249,118 | $4,925,105 | Sep 30 |
| Mike Rogers Republican | U.S. Senate in Michigan | $20,565,706 | +$9,662,537 | $6,527,471 | Sep 30 |
| Susan Collins Republican | U.S. Senate in Maine | $21,371,160 | +$5,201,333 | $5,388,482 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jon Husted Republican | U.S. Senate in Ohio (special) | $19,208,763 | +$4,848,735 | $8,883,293 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic | New York's 14th District | $37,429,335 | +$4,821,581 | $17,380,202 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Michele Tafoya Republican | U.S. Senate in Minnesota | $9,661,154 | +$4,323,212 | $2,134,167 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Rebecca Bennett Democratic | New Jersey's 7th District | $8,193,416 | +$3,921,382 | $1,729,652 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Peggy Flanagan Democratic | U.S. Senate in Minnesota | $10,301,879 | +$3,784,531 | $1,543,327 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Ashley Hinson Republican | U.S. Senate in Iowa | $13,472,386 | +$3,254,541 | $6,924,989 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
Show 88 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson Republican | Louisiana's 4th District | $24,227,908 | +$3,251,044 | $7,527,724 | Sep 30 (was Jul 18) |
| Eugene Vindman Democratic | Virginia's 7th District | $15,541,178 | +$3,185,514 | $5,827,745 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Mike Collins Republican | U.S. Senate in Georgia | $10,249,716 | +$2,778,412 | $1,159,314 | Sep 30 |
| Elaine Luria Democratic | Virginia's 2nd District | $7,364,705 | +$2,704,910 | $1,735,173 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Bob Brooks Democratic | Pennsylvania's 7th District | $4,991,635 | +$2,599,420 | $1,286,155 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Anthony DiLorenzo Republican | New Hampshire's 1st District | $5,059,864 | +$2,550,103 | $600,204 | Sep 30 (was Aug 19) |
| Paige Cognetti Democratic | Pennsylvania's 8th District | $7,095,684 | +$2,486,095 | $950,343 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Brian Poindexter Democratic | Ohio's 7th District | $3,072,898 | +$2,469,742 | $1,066,833 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Christina Bohannan Democratic | Iowa's 1st District | $9,468,352 | +$2,416,607 | $3,008,450 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Sarah Trone Garriott Democratic | Iowa's 3rd District | $7,654,894 | +$2,361,121 | $1,976,870 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jamie Ager Democratic | North Carolina's 11th District | $5,401,765 | +$2,349,411 | $1,641,163 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Casey Askar Republican | Florida's 22nd District | $4,935,512 | +$2,340,492 | $89,023 | Sep 30 |
| Christina Hines Democratic | Michigan's 10th District | $3,518,814 | +$2,307,325 | $1,429,491 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Kathy Castor Democratic | Florida's 14th District | $4,502,017 | +$2,164,018 | $1,509,433 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Nancy Lacore Democratic | South Carolina's 1st District | $4,429,295 | +$2,149,710 | $552,641 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Michael Whatley Republican | U.S. Senate in North Carolina | $13,415,721 | +$2,143,217 | $916,102 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jared Moskowitz Democratic | Florida's 25th District | $5,093,834 | +$2,095,406 | $1,815,026 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Eli Crane Republican | Arizona's 2nd District | $11,551,401 | +$2,069,973 | $2,362,842 | Sep 30 (was Jul 1) |
| Ashley Moody Republican | U.S. Senate in Florida (special) | $13,338,185 | +$2,067,380 | $2,820,080 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Andy Barr Republican | U.S. Senate in Kentucky | $12,046,429 | +$2,065,385 | $2,729,751 | Sep 30 |
| Dan S. Sullivan Republican | U.S. Senate in Alaska | $11,161,124 | +$2,024,157 | $5,103,717 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Mark Warner Democratic | U.S. Senate in Virginia | $19,903,654 | +$2,014,319 | $7,533,059 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Lindsay James Democratic | Iowa's 2nd District | $3,524,080 | +$1,895,879 | $676,409 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mike Lawler Republican | New York's 17th District | $10,001,206 | +$1,829,160 | $2,853,547 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jessica Killin Democratic | Colorado's 5th District | $4,968,409 | +$1,824,665 | $702,475 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Cory Booker Democratic | U.S. Senate in New Jersey | $20,663,771 | +$1,794,430 | $22,571,904 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks Republican | Iowa's 1st District | $8,924,570 | +$1,716,299 | $2,607,710 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Tom Suozzi Democratic | New York's 3rd District | $7,157,708 | +$1,701,010 | $4,987,842 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Sean McCann Democratic | Michigan's 4th District | $4,310,699 | +$1,690,688 | $1,320,322 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Don Tracy Republican | U.S. Senate in Illinois | $4,145,964 | +$1,686,074 | $1,145,406 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jamie Raskin Democratic | Maryland's 8th District | $9,054,242 | +$1,628,853 | $8,112,943 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Tom Barrett Republican | Michigan's 7th District | $7,891,381 | +$1,584,553 | $2,362,085 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Gabe Evans Republican | Colorado's 8th District | $6,904,664 | +$1,510,991 | $2,741,409 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ro Khanna Democratic | California's 17th District | $15,236,498 | +$1,475,007 | $16,936,477 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Matthew Dunlap Democratic | Maine's 2nd District | $2,671,904 | +$1,466,472 | $738,175 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Seth Bodnar Independent | U.S. Senate in Montana | $4,684,135 | +$1,445,984 | $745,105 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Hallie Shoffner Democratic | U.S. Senate in Arkansas | $3,682,226 | +$1,413,112 | $1,425,178 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Leela Gray Democratic | Florida's 13th District | $2,567,273 | +$1,344,204 | $600,502 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Aaron Flint Republican | Montana's 1st District | $2,640,894 | +$1,337,500 | $1,031,484 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Darren Soto Democratic | Florida's 9th District | $3,464,996 | +$1,307,162 | $1,341,792 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Juan Ciscomani Republican | Arizona's 6th District | $7,474,803 | +$1,301,936 | $926,834 | Sep 30 (was Jul 1) |
| Justin Pearson Democratic | Tennessee's 9th District | $3,642,697 | +$1,297,750 | $1,169,245 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Jen Kiggans Republican | Virginia's 2nd District | $7,240,304 | +$1,285,966 | $1,950,032 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Marcy Kaptur Democratic | Ohio's 9th District | $5,584,405 | +$1,280,989 | $1,246,370 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Monica De La Cruz Republican | Texas's 15th District | $6,551,097 | +$1,277,137 | $802,995 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bill Huizenga Republican | Michigan's 4th District | $5,367,471 | +$1,273,480 | $1,856,768 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Scott Perry Republican | Pennsylvania's 10th District | $6,457,001 | +$1,262,076 | $1,645,753 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Susie Lee Democratic | Nevada's 3rd District | $5,626,242 | +$1,224,821 | $1,305,318 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John Hickenlooper Democratic | U.S. Senate in Colorado | $9,325,922 | +$1,206,542 | $2,336,696 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jake Johnson Democratic | Minnesota's 1st District | $3,205,255 | +$1,204,708 | $1,024,360 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Rudy Yakym Republican | Indiana's 2nd District | $6,437,159 | +$1,191,129 | $830,725 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet Democratic | Michigan's 8th District | $6,820,546 | +$1,175,670 | $3,209,409 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Brandon Herrera Republican | Texas's 23rd District | $3,108,608 | +$1,170,889 | $554,174 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Rob Wittman Republican | Virginia's 1st District | $5,216,106 | +$1,162,964 | $2,190,517 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Max Miller Republican | Ohio's 7th District | $3,289,528 | +$1,146,966 | $122,835 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| John E. Sununu Republican | U.S. Senate in New Hampshire | $5,334,886 | +$1,120,876 | $2,502,640 | Sep 30 |
| Bill Hagerty Republican | U.S. Senate in Tennessee | $8,230,660 | +$1,067,763 | $5,285,140 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| Shomari Figures Democratic | Alabama's 2nd District | $2,408,245 | +$1,052,456 | $1,376,918 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Brian Fitzpatrick Republican | Pennsylvania's 1st District | $7,774,187 | +$1,039,256 | $2,386,107 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Charlie Hatcher Republican | Tennessee's 5th District | $1,719,954 | +$1,000,451 | $752,927 | Sep 30 (was Jul 17) |
| John Braun Republican | Washington's 3rd District | $3,203,193 | +$988,752 | $1,266,586 | Sep 30 |
| Rob Bresnahan Republican | Pennsylvania's 8th District | $6,197,786 | +$963,200 | $909,095 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Tom Emmer Republican | Minnesota's 6th District | $10,742,015 | +$955,951 | $3,681,986 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Eric Flores Republican | Texas's 34th District | $3,830,063 | +$955,073 | $285,096 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mike Bouchard Jr. Republican | Michigan's 10th District | $2,568,835 | +$942,584 | $1,533,349 | Sep 30 |
| Laurie Buckhout Republican | North Carolina's 1st District | $4,726,318 | +$933,241 | $1,864,912 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Laura Gillen Democratic | New York's 4th District | $6,021,061 | +$923,839 | $3,940,920 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Greg Landsman Democratic | Ohio's 1st District | $5,546,090 | +$912,840 | $1,497,731 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mitchell Berman Democratic | Wisconsin's 1st District | $1,610,305 | +$897,321 | $338,069 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Chris Deluzio Democratic | Pennsylvania's 17th District | $3,671,321 | +$894,378 | $1,303,921 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Dan Green Republican | Florida's 9th District | $2,187,322 | +$888,806 | $516,286 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Anna Paulina Luna Republican | Florida's 13th District | $4,089,080 | +$855,768 | $1,084,600 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Pete Aguilar Democratic | California's 33rd District | $5,577,648 | +$854,813 | $2,946,563 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Richard Hudson Republican | North Carolina's 9th District | $4,059,724 | +$844,383 | $1,558,098 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Carlos De La Cruz Republican | Texas's 35th District | $1,892,231 | +$843,480 | $476,496 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kevin Hern Republican | U.S. Senate in Oklahoma | $10,765,916 | +$812,337 | $2,767,495 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Ryan Mackenzie Republican | Pennsylvania's 7th District | $5,167,023 | +$809,618 | $2,175,667 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Roger Marshall Republican | U.S. Senate in Kansas | $4,809,692 | +$800,617 | $922,088 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Jake Ellzey Republican | Texas's 6th District | $5,451,228 | +$790,843 | $2,654,928 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bryan Steil Republican | Wisconsin's 1st District | $6,251,359 | +$783,582 | $4,203,173 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Jim Jordan Republican | Ohio's 4th District | $5,538,295 | +$763,973 | $4,613,338 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bale Dalton Democratic | Florida's 7th District | $2,137,358 | +$759,249 | $443,507 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Tom Cotton Republican | U.S. Senate in Arkansas | $6,989,606 | +$756,489 | $6,820,074 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Victoria Spartz Republican | Indiana's 5th District | $2,078,625 | +$751,397 | $854,343 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Joe Mitchell Republican | Iowa's 2nd District | $2,683,808 | +$745,215 | $868,818 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Lisa McClain Republican | Michigan's 9th District | $5,981,759 | +$739,450 | $1,707,417 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Emilia Sykes Democratic | Ohio's 13th District | $3,866,658 | +$729,218 | $1,102,523 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Jim Desmond Republican | California's 48th District | $2,985,951 | +$727,115 | $1,376,463 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
Showing 100 of 535, largest new amounts first.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 15.