Democratic
Chris Mann
Lawyer and nominee for attorney general in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
Kansas › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas Attorney General
Kobach is clearly favored to win: Kobach wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Mann (D)
9%
chance of winning
Kobach (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+8.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 3in our database
Kobach is favored to win: Kobach wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Mann (D)
23%
chance of winning
Kobach (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Kris Kobach
Incumbent attorney general (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Kansas state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 21.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 21.88 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mann | Kobach | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+4.5 |
| Pulse Decision ScienceR-sponsored | Jan 12–Jan 14 | 503 LV | 37 | 47 | R+10 | R+4.9 |
| Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD-sponsored | Nov 12–Nov 16 | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+6.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 16, 2026.
The state
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 2,947,197
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,303,655 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
997,733 votes · R+1.6✓ Kris Kobach (R)50.8%
Chris Mann (D)49.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,341,729 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2018
1,041,266 votes · R+17.9✓ Derek Schmidt (R)58.9%
Sarah G Swain (D)41.0%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,098,023 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%